661
FXUS64 KMAF 172319
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
619 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Visible satellite shows numerous patches of cumulus have
developed in the moist sector and along the dryline found along
the TX/NM state line. A few of these are anticipated to develop
into thunderstorms this afternoon, but will be very isolated in
nature given subsidence induced capping. Any storms that get going
today will have 1500-2000 J/kg of CAPE and modest shear (induced
by a strong LLJ) to work off of but CAMs indicate they won`t be
very numerous or very long lived with an unsurprising local maxima
of PoP around the Davis Mountains and Stockton Plateau. However,
some storms could be severe with strong winds and hail being the
main concerns. Heat is the other main headline today, especially
along and southwest of the Pecos River with many spots well into
the triple digits. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for these
areas this afternoon. A very strong LLJ is contributing to
elevated, gusty winds this afternoon that are set to linger
through the overnight hours tonight.

Moving into Tuesday, the ridge axis that has been nosing out of
northern Mexico weakens and backs off a bit as a large tropical
disturbance approaches the western Gulf of Mexico. As this feature
noses westward tomorrow, the low level thermal ridge is nudged
westward as well, helping temperatures stay a few degrees cooler
than today. Even still, the Davis Mountains and Big Bend are still
Heat Advisory for tomorrow afternoon, but given the marginal
exceedance of criteria and the current advisory in effect for
today, will leave the issuance of any necessary headlines for the
next update this evening/tonight. Aside from the heat, a stray
afternoon storm or two is possible once again off the Davis
Mountains. No severe weather is expected with any storms.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Models are on track showing the ridge to the east flattening out
as a tropical system pushes west from the Gulf of Mexico. At this
time it is still unclear whether this system will be just a broad
area of low pressure or tighten and intensify into a rotating
tropical cyclone. Either way, increased moisture and rain chances
are on tap from Tuesday night into Friday night. The position and
strength of the ridge will determine just how much moisture is
able to advect into the area. Highest rainfall amounts still look
to be along and south of the I-10 corridor, but location and
extent of highest rainfall amounts is still uncertain at this
time. ECMWF and ENS ensemble show lower rainfall amounts with most
of the area not seeing above 1.00 inch, compared to the GFS and
GEFS ensembles which show amounts closer to 1.00 inch for western
and northwestern regions and between 1.00 and 2.00 inches for the
eastern Permian Basin into eastern parts of the Stockton Plateau,
with 2.00 to 2.50 inches over Terrell County. Given anomalously
high PWATs, especially to the east of our CWA, we cannot rule out
higher rainfall amounts than currently forecast. However, cooler
and drier air in mid-level capping aloft may limit amount of
convectively driven heavy rain, especially over the SE NM plains.

Increased clouds and rain chances will mean temperatures much
cooler than this past weekend and early this week. On Wednesday
highs will only reach the upper 80s over easternmost regions, with
90s replacing areas that have seen triple digits the last few
days, and triple digits confined to regions right along the Rio
Grande in southern Brewster County and southwestern Presidio
County. Coolest temperatures are likely on Thursday as the most
widespread rain chances and cloud cover will be present, with most
locations 10 to 15 degrees below normal for this time of year and
not reaching the 90s, including most places along the Rio Grande.
Rain chances and low cloud cover will begin to dissipate Friday
into Saturday as the tropical disturbance moves off to the west
and northwest of the area, with widespread highs in the 80s on
Friday, and highs in the mid 80s to 90s for the area on Saturday.
With increased sunshine, highs over most of the area will once
again reach into the 90s, 80s in the higher elevations, by Sunday
into next Monday. Lows throughout the period will be slightly
"cooler" than this past weekend after Tuesday night, but remain
warmer than average for mid June, with lows only falling into the
60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Thunderstorms ongoing in the vicinity of FST at issuance may
impact the terminal for the first hour or two of the period,
resulting in erratic gusty winds, lightning, and brief MVFR
visibility in heavy rain. Elsewhere, aside from showers developing
near HOB, impacts from TS are not currently expected. VFR
conditions will prevail outside of storms, with the exception of
MAF, where MVFR ceilings look to develop around 10Z. These
ceilings should improve to VFR by around 16Z, with VFR conditions
continuing thereafter. Winds will remain elevated and at least
intermittently gusty out of the SE through the period, though may
be a bit more variable at CNM, especially tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               75  98  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 72 103  72  94 /   0   0  10  10
Dryden                   75  97  73  90 /  10   0   0  10
Fort Stockton            75  99  72  92 /  20  10   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           70  94  67  87 /   0   0  10  20
Hobbs                    70 100  69  90 /  10   0  10   0
Marfa                    64  98  62  92 /  10  10  10  20
Midland Intl Airport     74  96  72  90 /  10   0   0   0
Odessa                   75  96  72  90 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     77 102  75  95 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT /8 PM MDT/ this evening for Central
     Brewster County-Chinati Mountains-Chisos Basin-Davis
     Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Eastern Culberson
     County-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and
     Delaware Mountains-Loving-Lower Brewster County-Marfa
     Plateau-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reeves County Plains-Van Horn
     and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler.

NM...Heat Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for Eddy County Plains-
     Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....94
AVIATION...84