Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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340 FXUS64 KMAF 231945 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 245 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday night) Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 As noted below in the aviation section, a quasi-stationary clearing line bisects the CWA, with mostly cloudy skies extending southeast of a Gail to Odessa to Valentine line. Moist isentropic upglide will commence later this evening as a short wave trough approaches from the west and induces a return to southeasterly winds just off the deck. This will serve two purposes: the first is to keep the clouds across the southeastern CWA more or less intact and the second is to promote the development of fog just to the north and west of the clearing line, where radiational cooling and a collapse of the low- level T/Td spreads will promote efficient formation. There is the low (< 25 percent) potential of showers and thunderstorms overnight in between I-10 and I-20 as well, but QPF will be spotty at best. Temperatures overnight will fall into the upper 50s to lower 70s with light and variable winds becoming southeasterly as we head toward sunrise. Fog and low clouds will persist through the mid morning hours Tuesday over the southern Permian Basin; otherwise, skies will be mostly sunny. There is the outside (< 25 percent) chance of showers and thunderstorms across the higher terrain. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 90s with light east to southeast winds. Tuesday night should be nearly a carbon copy (minus the fog chances) of tonight`s conditions, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 70s under partly cloudy skies. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Deterministic and ensemble clusters depict broad troughing to the east of the area as secondary shortwave trough amplifies east over the ArkLaTex within larger long wave troughing stretching from the Great Lakes to Southern Great Plains and Southern Mississippi River Valley. A surface cold front associated with this trough will move through the area Wednesday afternoon, with cold air advection in its wake. However, with clearing skies allowing for diurnal heating, we are expecting near to above normal temperatures as high pressure settles in, mostly in the 80s with 70s in higher elevations and 90s near the Rio Grande. Heights and thicknesses build east from the western CONUS late this week into this weekend, with a warming trend ensuing. Large scale subsidence from this ridge will suppress rain chances and keep conditions dry, with temperatures in the 80s and above Thursday through next Monday, and highs rising into the 90s again making an appearance over parts of the Permian Basin, along the Pecos River and over the Upper Trans Pecos, in addition to near the Rio Grande. Even as highs will be above average, they will remain cool enough that lows will still drop into the 50s and 60s for most of the area each night Wednesday night through next Monday night under mostly clear skies and light winds. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 A clearing line is noted on satellite extending southwest- northeast from roughly Valentine through Pecos to Snyder. Southeast of this line, MVFR to IFR conditions have been stubborn to lift, with VFR conditions noted to the northwest of this line. We expect conditions to improve to VFR at KMAF, KINK, and KPEQ during the early afternoon hours, but MVFR conditions are expected to persist at KFST. There`s abundant signals across the short- range model guidance that IFR to LIFR conditions will develop along and north of this boundary before daybreak, impacting KMAF in the 24/11Z to 24/15Z range. There is strong (> 80 percent) confidence that KMAF will fall into the IFR range by 11Z, with medium (~ 40 percent) confidence that LIFR conditions including visibilities at or below 1/4SM within the same time frame at KMAF. Conditions should remain VFR elsewhere, with conditions becoming VFR at KMAF after 24/15Z. -bc && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 77 62 88 65 / 20 20 10 10 Carlsbad 81 60 89 62 / 0 0 10 0 Dryden 82 67 89 68 / 30 10 10 10 Fort Stockton 78 64 89 63 / 20 10 10 10 Guadalupe Pass 75 59 82 61 / 10 0 10 0 Hobbs 78 59 86 60 / 0 0 10 10 Marfa 76 59 84 58 / 20 20 40 10 Midland Intl Airport 77 63 87 65 / 20 20 10 10 Odessa 77 64 87 65 / 20 10 10 10 Wink 80 64 90 66 / 10 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...70 LONG TERM....94 AVIATION...70