315
FXUS64 KMAF 011737
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1237 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Convection is only now winding down as radar shows the last storm
dissipating near Big Spring. Outflow from this convection has
spread across the entire Permian Basin bringing in a more stable
and cool airmass. However this may not do much good for preventing
severe weather this afternoon as models show moisture pushing
west against the mountains ahead of the cooler air. The moist air
will outrun the cooler and more stable air allowing for afternoon
heating and an approaching disturbance will destabilize the
atmosphere causing severe storms to develop in the mountains and
progress east. The storms should begin weakening with sunset which
should occur around the time they reach the Pecos River valley
and diminish in strength as they push east into the central and
eastern Permian Basin. So the main threat today will be in areas
that have not had much severe weather, or even rainfall, so far
this year. Strong winds and hail will be the main threats and our
western CWA is under a SLIGHT risk by SPC.

Zonal flow pushes dry air east and the dryline sets up in the
western Permian Basin on Sunday. Highest rain chances will be in
the eastern Basin where a few storms could again become severe
though coverage should be less than that seen the past couple of
days. Warmer temperatures are expected behind the dryline tomorrow
though highs should be near normal for this time of year.

Hennig

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 314 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Zonal flow is expected the early part of next week and this time
of year that means very hot and dry weather. Highs Monday through
Wednesday are expected to top off above the century mark for many
locations, with upper 90s seen elsewhere. A western U.S. ridge
amplifies late in the week which may allow for a weak cold front
to sneak into West Texas and eastern New Mexico. Not only should
we see a break in the hot temperatures but there may also be a
return of rain chances as the front provides moisture and a source
of surface convergence to help create lift.

Hennig

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

MVFR ceilings are expected to continue improving to VFR within
the first hour or two of the forecast period, with VFR conditions
prevailing thereafter. Thunderstorms are expected to develop
across western areas between 20Z-21Z this afternoon and then move
eastward, thus have included VCTS for all terminals except MAF
where confidence is a bit better, and will monitor and amend as
needed. Gusty, erratic winds, lightning, and hail will be possible
with storms, along with heavy rain that could produce brief
MVFR/IFR conditions. Storms will move east of area terminals by
06Z. Winds will generally remain elevated/gusty out of the
southeast with some variability, especially in the vicinity of any
storms or outflow boundaries.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               68  93  72 102 /  30  20  10   0
Carlsbad                 64 101  67 102 /  20  10   0   0
Dryden                   71  97  74 103 /  30  10   0  10
Fort Stockton            68 100  70 104 /  30  20   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           64  92  67  92 /  20   0   0   0
Hobbs                    63  97  63 101 /  20  10   0   0
Marfa                    57  96  58  96 /  30  10   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     68  94  71 102 /  30  10   0   0
Odessa                   69  95  72 102 /  30  10   0   0
Wink                     69 102  68 106 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM....10
AVIATION...84