Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
Issued by NWS Midland/Odessa, TX
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731 FXUS64 KMAF 191050 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 550 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday afternoon) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Yesterday was hot, but it`s only up from here! Similar conditions are in place today, but with a bit stronger southwesterly, downslope flow. 850 mb temperatures will push 32C-34C across much of the area today. Deep mixing will push highs well above normal and into the 100s for most. This will be the first time above the century mark for most of the Permian Basin including Midland and Odessa. While hot, we will stay several degrees below record highs. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the Davis Mountains (highs in the mid to upper 90s) south to the Rio Grande (highs around 110). After a very mild night, Monday looks like a repeat of today. Will likely need to extend and possibly expand the Heat Advisory. Dry conditions will continue. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 If you came to the long term looking for the cooler weather, you`re out of luck. An upper level trough will progress across the Central Plains on Tuesday, and compressional warming from downsloping westerly winds maintain above-normal temperatures in the 90s for most Tuesday afternoon. As the trough sweeps northeastward, a backdoor cold front will push down into Texas Wednesday morning, bringing a small reprieve from this abnormally hot May. Post-front, highs may ~only~ reach the low to mid 90s north of I-10 Wednesday afternoon, but anything below triple digits is a welcome change. As the front progresses southward on Wednesday, a shortwave trough will move across the Desert Southwest and help initiate a few storms across the far eastern Permian Basin late Wednesday evening into Thursday. Moisture in the lower levels will be lacking during this time, so even if a few storms manage to develop, there won`t be much precipitation to go along with them. Unfortunately, this looks to be the only chance for rain in the long term. Our "reprieve" from the heat will be short lived as upper level ridging builds back in following the departure of the shortwave trough. Temperatures rebound into the upper 90s by Friday with 100s returning possibly this weekend. -Zuber && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR with gusty southwest winds this afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 241 AM CDT Sun May 19 2024 Conditions have turned dry for spots along and west of the Trans Pecos where little rain has fallen in the past several months. Under a warming and drying trend this week, humidity will fall to single digits across much of the region each afternoon, with poor overnight recovery out west. This, along with critically dry fuels and ERCs approaching the 90th-97th percentile, will maintain near-critical fire weather conditions for much of the week. Luckily, 20ft winds will remain fairly light until Tuesday as an upper level trough passes to the north and westerly winds increase. On Wednesday, a cold front will push down and cool temperatures a bit, but moisture will still back lacking and near-critical fire weather conditions will continue. A few storms will be possible across the far east Wednesday evening into Thursday with lightning bringing possible fire starts, but storms don`t look to coincide with the driest spots. As storms move out Thursday, another warming and drying trend sets in with fire concerns increasing late week and into the weekend. Given humidity as low as 6 percent today and critically dry fuels with ERCs around the 90th percentile, a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this afternoon and early evening across far West Texas, Southeast New Mexico, and the higher terrain. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 101 69 102 74 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 100 64 102 67 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 104 71 103 74 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 104 68 103 70 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 90 65 90 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 99 62 99 64 / 0 0 0 0 Marfa 96 56 96 59 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 101 68 102 72 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 101 69 102 72 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 105 65 104 68 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for Chisos Basin-Davis Mountains-Lower Brewster County. NM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...29 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...29