118
ACUS11 KWNS 250151
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 250150
WIZ000-MNZ000-250345-

Mesoscale Discussion 1400
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0850 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas affected...east central Minnesota into northwestern Wisconsin

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

Valid 250150Z - 250345Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm initiation appears increasingly probable
during the next hour or two, with a substantive further increase and
intensification of storms through 10 PM-1 AM CDT.  Initial storms
may pose a risk for large hail, before the risk for potentially
damaging wind gusts increases overnight.

DISCUSSION...Deepening convective development is evident within
strengthening warm advection across central Minnesota into
northwestern Wisconsin.  The warm frontal zone has shifted northward
some over the past several hours, but convection has been struggling
to overcome inhibition associated with very warm/dry elevated
mixed-layer air, despite further low-level moistening.  However, as
mid/upper flow transitions from broadly anticyclonic to broadly
cyclonic, and low-level warm advection strengthens further in
response to an intensifying low-level jet, lift appears likely to
increasingly overcome inhibition.  This probably will allow for a
substantive increase in thunderstorm development through the 03-06Z
time frame.  Initial development may include evolving elevated
supercells posing a risk for large hail, before activity gradually
consolidates and grows upscale into an organizing cluster with
increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts later tonight.

..Kerr/Gleason.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

LAT...LON   46329383 46389212 45518962 44379066 44759290 45539427
            46329383