879
ACUS11 KWNS 182043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182042
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-182245-

Mesoscale Discussion 2084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0342 PM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024

Areas affected...The eastern Texas Panhandle into northwest Oklahoma
and southern Kansas

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 182042Z - 182245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected by late
afternoon/early evening across the eastern Texas Panhandle and into
adjacent portions of northwest Oklahoma and southern Kansas.
Thunderstorm coverage should remain sufficiently isolated to
preclude watch issuance, but instances of severe hail/wind will be
possible.

DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows deepening cumulus along a
weakly confluent surface trough across the TX Panhandle into
southern KS. The southerly flow regime across the region has helped
offset the influence of diurnal mixing with dewpoints remaining the
low to mid 60s. Concurrently, temperatures are warming into the low
to mid 90s, which is eroding inhibition and supporting MLCAPE
upwards of around 1000 J/kg. Any further improvements to the
thermodynamic environment will be modest through late afternoon,
namely in the form of steepening low-level lapse rates as
temperatures peak in the mid to upper 90s. However, nearly zonal
30-35 knot flow aloft is supporting somewhat elongated mid-level
hodographs with similar effective bulk shear values. This kinematic
environment should support organized convection, including the
potential for a supercell or two with an attendant risk for large
hail (most likely up to 1.0-1.75 inches in diameter) and severe
winds. Based on the aforementioned satellite trends, at least a
couple of storms appear probable, but the fairly weak forcing for
ascent along the surface trough and stronger inhibition downstream
into OK and KS suggests that storm coverage and duration may be
limited. Consequently, watch issuance is unlikely.

..Moore/Gleason.. 09/18/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   35020160 36810046 37789985 38129965 38369910 38379879
            38259853 38039837 37809827 37549819 37309817 37039825
            36739841 36279872 35839903 35389952 34999987 34700026
            34590067 34620121 34670144 34850167 35020160