962
ACUS11 KWNS 261745
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 261745
MSZ000-TNZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-261945-

Mesoscale Discussion 1427
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Areas affected...Northeastern Louisiana into Southeast Arkansas and
Northern Mississippi

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible

Valid 261745Z - 261945Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...A QLCS located near and along the Mississippi river, in
addition to warm sector thunderstorms developing over much of
Northern MS, are being monitored for possible weather watch
issuance. The primary threat is for damaging straight-line winds.

DISCUSSION...A QLCS located along and near the Mississippi River is
advancing east-southeast into northern Mississippi, with another
region of stronger reflectivity advancing from southern AR into
northern LA. Ahead of the QLCS, warm sector thunderstorms have
developed across much of MS and into western AL.

This environment is characterized by MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg, but deep
layer vertical shear remains weak at only 10-20 kts and mostly
unidirectional. Coupled with anomalously high precipitable water
values > 2 inches on the 12Z JAN sounding -- near the daily max for
this time of year -- the primary severe threat appears to be from
wet microbursts, in addition to damaging winds from QLCS outflow.

Given current convective trends, the area is being monitored for
weather watch issuance.

..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/26/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...

LAT...LON   33318934 32848991 32529040 32189086 32109144 32239176
            32639183 33039196 33149206 33629241 33869238 34199201
            34449157 34819106 35029074 35089013 35028969 34948928
            34798898 34598875 34298867 34118872 33718905 33318934