079
ACUS11 KWNS 252049
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 252048
OKZ000-TXZ000-252245-

Mesoscale Discussion 1412
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0348 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle into Western Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely

Valid 252048Z - 252245Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development appears likely in the TX
Panhandle into W OK later this afternoon. A few isolated damaging
wind gusts and hail reports are possible, but overall coverage of
severe weather is expected to remain low, meaning watch issuance is
not likely at this time.

DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery shows vertical development of
boundary-layer cumulus has increased over the Texas Panhandle in the
last 1.5-2 hours, suggesting that convective initiation may be
likely in the next hour or two. This cumulus is in the vicinity of a
weak surface low, with surface temperatures in the upper 90s to low
100s F, and dewpoints ranging from the upper 50s F in the northwest
panhandle to mid 60s F near the TX/OK border, resulting in MLCAPE >
1000 J/kg. Deep layer vertical shear is strongest in the Northern TX
Panhandle into W OK, with values around 35 kts, decreasing with
southwestward extent.

Given the hot, dry boundary layer, and weak to modest vertical
shear, a few isolated damaging wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow
may be possible this afternoon into the evening. Eastward extent of
convection is uncertain at this time, but given the better
combination of shear and buoyancy over W OK, a few isolated hail
reports are possible with any storms that develop. However, overall
coverage of severe weather is expected to be low.

Given the lack of support for organized convection, and uncertainty
in eastward extent of convection with the better environment, watch
issuance is not likely.

..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 06/25/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...AMA...

LAT...LON   35839821 35539840 35339876 35049931 34889994 34780045
            34790080 34790127 34890184 35120242 35400270 35690260
            35970213 36210156 36400111 36560062 36700007 36869905
            36899847 36369820 35839821