Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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158 ACUS11 KWNS 251643 SWOMCD SPC MCD 251643 INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-251815- Mesoscale Discussion 1408 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Areas affected...central/southern Illinois into western Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely Valid 251643Z - 251815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...There may be an increased severe weather threat early this afternoon across central/southern Illinois and far western Indiana DISCUSSION...Some increase in convective coverage has started across the western portion of a remnant MCS across central/west-central Illinois. Ahead of this activity, clear skies have permitted strong heating with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. This yields over 3000 J/kg MLCAPE. SPC mesoanalysis shows decreasing inhibition across Illinois with an increasing cumulus field across Missouri. Therefore, with some additional heating, expect inhibition to erode and some increasing intensity of ongoing storms across central Illinois. The hot and moist airmass should support a damaging wind threat as this cluster of storms moves southeast through the afternoon. The threat should persist to the eastern extent of the greater heating/low-level moisture advection which is forecast somewhere between Terre Haute and Indianapolis and eventually approach the Ohio River by evening. ..Bentley/Hart.. 06/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...LOT...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 40788842 40748739 40348646 40008608 39578588 38868596 38368640 37988709 37878813 38348902 39228991 40119019 40439017 40648982 40788842