994
FXUS64 KMEG 041756
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1256 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1020 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

NQA radar imagery denotes a few light showers moving across
northeast Arkansas and West Tennessee. These showers are forming
along a two shortwaves out ahead of an upper trough currently
centered over the Iowa and Missouri border. Sporadic showers will
continue to overspread northeast Arkansas and West Tennessee as
this upper trough continues to churn east. A few shortwaves will
continue ejecting from the west, and by mid afternoon,
thunderstorm chances will begin to increase as an outflow boundary
looks to aggravate the Mid-South. Forecast surface based CAPE
values are around 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6 bulk shear look to top
out at around 25-30 kts. Primary threats this afternoon into
evening remain damaging winds, small to large hail, and a
localized flooding risk. PWATs will be around 1.8" which is
nearing the 90th percentile for this time of year. Already
saturated soils and elevated rivers and streams may be at risk for
flooding with continued rainfall today and heading through
tomorrow evening. Increased cloud cover and previously mentioned
rainfall will result in high temperatures around the mid 80s
today.

PoPs were increased over northeast Arkansas and West Tennessee in
accordance with current radar imagery and latest CAMs. Cloud cover
was also increased through this evening as PoPs were increased.
Otherwise, the current forecast package is on track.

AEH

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Warm, humid, and wet conditions will continue through Wednesday as a
series of systems trek across the region. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening
hours through Wednesday. Dry and less humid conditions will settle
in Thursday and Friday before another system arrives this
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Relatively weak zonal flow aloft will persist through Wednesday
resulting in a continuing active weather pattern. Several
shortwaves will trek across the region and keep showers and
thunderstorms in the forecast. Return flow at the surface will
keep dewpoints in the 70s until the pattern change and provide
ample instability for convective activity. Thankfully,
deterministic soundings hint at weak shear to continue and
suppress updrafts from becoming too severe. A Marginal Risk for
severe storms is in place today as MLCAPE values hang around 1500
J/kg at peak heating. Convection looks to initiate along some sort
of outflow boundary left by a remnant MCV that settled into the
region late last night. Any storms that do intensify propose a
damaging wind, large hail, and localized flash flooding threat.
PWs are forecast to be ~1.8" (which nears the 90th percentile) on
a fairly saturated surface. Additional rainfall will aggravate
already elevated rivers and streams, resulting in flooding
concerns.

A slow moving cold front will start to approach on Wednesday
morning. Thunderstorms associated with this front may be severe over
the Southern Plains and ArkLaTex region, but storms look to weaken
as they approach the Mid-South. Any residual outflow boundaries
could be enough for initiation and storms would likely be outflow
dominant which could provide a damaging wind threat. There is a
lot of uncertainty with timing and coverage on Wednesday. QPF
through the remainder of the active pattern is generally 2" or
less, but locally higher amounts are possible.

A pattern change looks to come as a reinforcing cold front crosses
the area on Thursday. Somewhat cooler conditions will settle in on
Friday with highs still in the 80s, however, dewpoints will hang
in the 50s and 60s providing a brief break in humid conditions.

Unfortunately, high pressure will not reign for long as a low
pressure system will track across the Great Lakes Region this
weekend. Showers and thunderstorms will return to the region as a
cold front moves across the area.

DNM

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Tue Jun 4 2024

Tried to time the next chance of TSRAs with MCV moving in from the west.
Debated between VCTS and tempo and went with tempo for most sites
for now. It looks like the next convective complex will dive SE
overnight and miss the area entirely. Expect low clouds in the
morning with some redevelopment possible Wed aftn though left it
VCSH for now. Winds mainly southerly and above threshold through
the period.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...SJM