Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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171 FXUS62 KMFL 100653 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 253 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 To begin the work week, large scale troughing over the eastern Seaboard will pivot further southwards across the deep south states with an attendant frontal boundary pushing southwards simultaneously. The front will eventually become stalled out across the northern Florida Peninsula and panhandle on Tuesday. The presence of this stationary boundary and consistent tropical moisture advection out of the south into the South Florida region will allow abundant moisture to pool in the area. PWATs will rise to between 2.0-2.2 inches as early as Monday and are expected to remain around that level through the period. As a result, expect precipitation to become increasingly widespread, especially on Tuesday as extra positive vorticity impulses are expected to advect into and through the region along with the heavily enhanced moisture. Low level convergence looks to be maximized near the west coast, which would favor the highest QPF at least initially for west coast areas compared to others in the short term period ending Tuesday evening. Due to the expected increasing rain, the biggest concern for this period will be the risk for urban flooding as a result of the chance for training showers and thunderstorms over the same areas or slow- moving thunderstorms under a weak flow pattern currently. The entire CWA will be under a slight risk in WPC`s Excessive Rainfall Outlook (ERO) on Tuesday. High temperatures will top out in the low 90s on Monday and upper 80s on Tuesday. With increased cloud cover and rain expected, no heat products should be necessary. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 A very wet and unsettled weather pattern is shaping up across South Florida for the middle and end of the week. A mid level shortwave will dive southeastward through the Southern Plains on Tuesday, and then towards the Texas/Louisiana coastline as well as the Gulf of Mexico for the middle to latter portion of the week. At the surface, high pressure will remain parked in the western Atlantic as a surface trough pushes into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This will keep a south to southwesterly wind flow in place across South Florida throughout the rest of the week which will allow for deep tropical moisture advection to take place through this period. The latest guidance continues to show PWAT values increasing to 2.5 inches or higher for Wednesday through Friday. With this increased tropical moisture flowing into the region, rainfall will become widespread across the area during the middle to later portion of the week. There could be periods of heavy rainfall which may lead to the potential for flooding concerns across the region through the end of the week as multiple rounds of heavy downpours train over the same areas. As of now, If the strongest moisture advection and positive vorticity advection were to push further east, then larger amounts of rain could be observed and is something to be aware of. However, at this time we expect an overall active week and the exact details will have to be refined in the coming days. While details remain uncertain in regards to specific amounts of rainfall, confidence is increasing that a multiple day widespread rainfall event could take shape across the area. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. With increased cloud cover in place, temperatures will be held down across the region through the middle and end of the week. High temperatures during this time frame will generally remain in the lower to mid 80s across most of South Florida. The upper low will begin to retrograde westward into the central/western GOM later this weekend, which should focus the tropical moisture west of the area. If this evolution holds generally drier conditions could be expected by Sunday with low- lvl easterly flow tending to increase as high pressure builds north of the area. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 121 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the morning hours, however numerous showers and thunderstorms will likely develop by late morning/early afternoon and propagate northward through the afternoon period. Light and variable winds this morning will trend S-SW around 10kts during the day, outside of thunderstorm outflows. && .MARINE... Issued at 246 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible over area waters today and becoming increasing numerous Tuesday and beyond, with locally enhanced winds and seas possible in storms. Outside of convection, southerly winds will increase later today into Tuesday with the potential for cautionary to near-hazardous winds on Tuesday (particularly over the Gulf waters). Seas should remain 3 ft or less through the period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 1201 PM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024 An increase in tropical moisture is expected this upcoming week, with PWAT values in excess of 2.5 inches possible starting Tuesday which would be around seasonal maxes. While still too early to pinpoint exact timing and rainfall amounts, periods of heavy rain are possible from Tuesday through at least Friday across South Florida. Repeated bouts of heavy rain may result in flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. Flood Watches may be needed this upcoming week as details come more into focus. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 91 80 86 78 / 70 50 90 80 West Kendall 92 77 87 76 / 70 50 90 70 Opa-Locka 93 79 88 78 / 70 50 90 70 Homestead 90 78 86 77 / 60 50 80 80 Fort Lauderdale 90 80 86 78 / 60 50 90 80 N Ft Lauderdale 92 79 86 77 / 70 50 90 70 Pembroke Pines 94 80 89 78 / 70 50 90 70 West Palm Beach 93 77 86 75 / 60 50 90 70 Boca Raton 93 78 88 76 / 70 50 90 70 Naples 91 78 87 78 / 60 80 90 80 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Carr