377
FXUS62 KMFL 221916
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
316 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Strong mid level ridging remains centered over the Deep South this
afternoon while a weakness in this ridge remains in place on the
eastern side in the western Atlantic. At the surface, high pressure
in the western Atlantic extends back towards South Florida as a
weakening area of low pressure pushes into Southeastern Georgia.
With lack of any synoptic scale forcing, shower and thunderstorm
development will be sea breeze driven throughout the rest of today.
Deep tropical moisture continues to filter into the region as the
latest forecast soundings show PWAT values rising up to 2.1 to 2.3
inches later this afternoon. This will allow for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms to continue to develop this
afternoon and into this evening.

With a weak steering flow in place, storm motion will be slow this
afternoon. The general east to southeasterly wind flow will allow
for the east coast sea breeze to push further inland, shifting the
focus of convection over to the interior and west as the afternoon
progresses into the evening hours. Enough instability remains in
place with diurnal heating to support a strong thunderstorm or two
mainly over the interior sections this afternoon into the evening
containing gusty winds and heavy downpours. While most of the
convection will dissipate heading into the late evening hours over
land, additional shower and thunderstorm development will be
possible over the local waters as well as the as the east coast
overnight. Low temperatures tonight will generally range from the
lower 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region to around 80 across the
east coast metro areas.

Heading into Sunday, mid level ridging across the Gulf Coast states
and the Southeast will slowly start to break down as an amplifying
mid level trough dives down across the Great Lakes and into the
Northeast. This will cause the surface high in the western Atlantic
to retreat further to the east which will weaken the east to
southeasterly wind flow across the region even further. With deep
tropical moisture still in place, scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will develop once again along the sea breezes as they
push inland. Storm motion will once again be slow due to the weak
steering flow, however, convection will slowly try to push towards
the interior and west during the afternoon and evening hours. With a
bit more instability in place as well as the addition of some mid to
upper level forcing as the ridge starts to break down, some strong
thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out later in the afternoon.
The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours
with the highest chances remaining over the interior sections. High
temperatures will generally rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s
across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The week kicks off with the continuation of the unsettled pattern as
the trough continues over the eastern seaboard of the United States.
On Monday, the amplified trough extending south into Florida will
come into phase with a plume of tropical moisture over the Greater
Antilles and southern Florida. The trough axis deamplifies as it
moves east on Tuesday as additional easterly moisture arrives over
southern Florida. A second trough amplifies as it enters the
southeastern United States on Wednesday into Thursday while another
burst of easterly tropical moisture moves across the Caribbean to
close out the week.

Overall, the pattern for hot days and diurnally driven convection
will remain but the additional bursts of tropical moisture and
presence of low pressure around the region could permit multiple
rounds of convection which could lead to localized flooding from
heavy rainfall in areas that become saturated. Overnight minimum
temperatures, particularly along the east coast metro areas where
onshore flow will persist, will struggle to drop below 80 for large
portions of the nights this week. Heat index values will routinely
reach the triple digits each day with some pockets reaching 105 to
108 range by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
push towards the interior and west as the afternoon progresses.
ESE winds around 10 to 15 kts will gradually diminish heading
into the evening hours. At KAPF, winds will become SW this
afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops. Periods of MVFR or IFR are
possible at KAPF this afternoon as showers and storms move near
and over the terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A gentle to moderate east to southeasterly wind flow will continue
across the local waters through the rest of the weekend. These winds
will gradually veer and become more southerly heading into the early
and middle portion of the week. Seas across the Atlantic will remain
at 3 feet or less while seas across the Gulf remain at 2 feet or
less through the rest of the weekend and into early next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the local
waters each day and could result in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A high risk of rip currents will remain in place across the Atlantic
Coast beaches through this evening. The risk of rip currents could
remain elevated into early next week as onshore flow remains in
place. Rip current risks will diminsh for all South Florida beaches
heading into the middle of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  89  79  89 /  40  60  30  60
West Kendall     77  90  76  89 /  40  60  30  60
Opa-Locka        79  90  78  90 /  40  60  30  60
Homestead        78  88  78  89 /  50  60  40  60
Fort Lauderdale  80  88  79  87 /  40  60  30  60
N Ft Lauderdale  80  88  79  88 /  40  60  30  60
Pembroke Pines   80  91  79  91 /  40  60  30  60
West Palm Beach  78  88  78  89 /  40  60  30  60
Boca Raton       79  88  78  89 /  40  50  30  60
Naples           76  90  76  89 /  40  70  40  70

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...CWC