770
FXUS62 KMFL 221358
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
958 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 942 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed over the local
waters this morning as well as portions of the eastern half of the
region. Plenty of moisture remains in place as the PWAT values
from the 12Z KMFL sounding came in at 2.02 inches. With moisture
advection continuing throughout the day, these values will rise
and will range between 2.1 and 2.3 inches across most of the
region this afternoon. As east to southeasterly wind flow
increases, convection will gradually shift and push more towards
the interior and west as the afternoon progresses. With rather
poor mid level lapse rates (6.1-6.4 C/km) combined with weak
effective bulk shear values, the chances for strong thunderstorms
remain somewhat limited. However, as CAPE values increase and
range between 3500 and 4000 J/KG this afternoon, an isolated
strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out containing gusty
winds and heavy downpours. The best chances of strong thunderstorm
development will remain over interior portions of Southwest
Florida. High temperatures this afternoon will rise into the upper
80s across the east coast, and into the lower 90s across
Southwest Florida. Heat index values will generally range from 102
to 107 this afternoon, however, some interior locations across
Southwest Florida could see these values approach 110 for brief
periods of time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Overall this weekend will have better chances for showers and
thunderstorms across South Florida than we`ve seen in recent days,
but by no means will it be a washout. Mid-level ridging will
remain over the region today, with surface high pressure over the
western Atlantic resulting in a light east-southeast flow.
Moisture advection will take place throughout the day, with PWAT
values rising to around between 2.2 inches, bringing an increase
in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms. The main focus of
convection will still be sea breeze driven, however, with the
lighter steering flow in place, convection may linger closer to
the East Coast metro areas upon development before slowly pushing
towards the interior and Gulf Coast. Some stronger thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out mainly across the interior sections this
afternoon, and they could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours.
High temperatures today will generally range from the upper 80s
along the East Coast to the lower 90s across interior and Gulf
Coast areas, with heat index values across the region in the low
100s.

On Sunday, a mid-level trough will dip southward across the Great
Lakes, starting a gradual breakdown of the dominant mid-level
ridge that has been sitting over the region. The expansive surface
high pressure over the western Atlantic will also weaken and
retreat, weakening the east-southeast surface flow over South
Florida. Despite this change, there will still be enough flow to
focus most convection across the western half of South Florida.
With better instability and forcing from the weakening ridge,
shower and thunderstorm chances will be higher than on Saturday.
High temperatures will again be in the upper 80s to low 90s, with
heat indices around 100.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

On Monday, a more notable shift in the weather pattern is
expected as the surface flow is to become more southerly. This is
due to the waning influence of a surface high over the western
Atlantic. The shift in the surface flow will concentrate
convection primarily across inland areas, particularly around the
lake and other inland locations, where boundary collisions will be
more frequent. During this period, deeper tropical moisture
(PWATs exceeding 2 inches) from the ongoing Central American Gyre
(C.A.G.) will continue to move into South Florida, sustaining
elevated rain chances each afternoon. It is important to note that
the NBMs PoPs are too high, so a reduction has been implemented.

As we progress into mid to late week, mid-level troughing will
become established over the eastern United States, accompanied by
a surface frontal boundary extending into the southeastern United
States. In response, surface winds will veer southwesterly across
South Florida. This will promote the inland progression of the
Gulf sea breeze while confining the Atlantic sea breeze to the
East Coast. As a result, the highest concentration of convection
is expected along the East Coast metro areas from Tuesday through
late week. With PWATs ranging between 1.8 and 2.2 inches and light
500mb flow in place, localized flooding remains a concern,
particularly in urban areas that experienced significant rainfall
last week.

The south to southwest flow will support seasonal temperatures
throughout the forecast period with high temperatures in the low
to mid 90s, and heat indices exceeding 100.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 729 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period.
Light and variable winds will increase out of the ESE and will
range between 10 and 15 kts this afternoon. Scattered showers and
storms will develop near the terminals as the sea breezes push
inland this afternoon. This could result in periods of sub-VFR
conditions near storms with the highest chances of visibility
reductions at KAPF. Winds will also shift to the SW in the
afternoon at KAPF as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will remain in place
across most of the local waters through the weekend. These winds
will gradually veer and become more southerly as the early portion
of next week progresses. Seas across the Atlantic waters will
remain at 2 to 4 feet through the first part of the weekend before
subsiding to 2 feet or less during the second half of the weekend
and into early next week. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain
at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next week.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible
each day and could result in locally higher winds and waves.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 247 AM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A high risk of rip currents will continue for the Atlantic Coast
Beaches through this evening. The rip current risk could remain
elevated through the rest of the weekend and into early next week
as onshore flow remains in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  79  89  79 /  60  40  70  40
West Kendall     90  77  90  76 /  60  40  70  30
Opa-Locka        90  78  90  78 /  60  40  70  40
Homestead        89  78  88  78 /  60  40  70  40
Fort Lauderdale  88  80  88  79 /  50  40  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  89  80  89  78 /  60  40  60  30
Pembroke Pines   92  80  91  79 /  60  40  60  40
West Palm Beach  90  78  89  77 /  60  30  60  30
Boca Raton       90  79  89  78 /  50  40  60  30
Naples           92  77  90  76 /  70  50  70  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC