Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
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889 FXUS66 KMFR 261720 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1020 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024 ...Updated Aviation Discusion... .AVIATION...26/18Z TAFS...Along the coast areas of IFR/LIFR ceilings will continue through this morning, especially from Gold Beach south. VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon, before marine stratus develops again later this evening and continues into Friday morning with IFR/LIFR ceilings, especially from Cape Blanco north. A weak front moving into the area Friday morning, will allow ceilings to rise to IFR/MVFR along the coast. Inland, marine stratus is confined to the Umpqua Basin, Including Roseburg and it will burn off by early afternoon. Guidance shows Roseburg clearing out towards 19z, which looks reasonable given the extent and depth of the marine layer. Once the marine stratus burn off, VFR conditions are expected for the afternoon into most of tonight. A front could bring clouds back into the Umpqua early Friday morning, but ceilings should remain VFR with the terrain partly obscured towards 12z. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. -CC && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 846 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2024/ DISCUSSION...The latest satellite image shows marine stratus confined to the coast just south of Gold Beach, around Coos Bay and inland over most of the Umpqua Basin, and parts of the Coquille Basin. Adjustments were made to the sky cover to better reflect this for this morning. The marine stratus will be slow to burn off for the interior, but it should clear out late this morning. Today will be dry with warmer afternoon temperatures for the interior. A weak front will brush by to our north Friday morning and could bring a few sprinkles in far northwest Douglas County early Friday morning, otherwise were looking at dry weather to continue for the next several days. -Petrucelli MARINE...Updated 830 AM, September 26, 2024...Conditions will remain relatively calm through this evening. Steep northwest swell will build into the area by Friday morning, and will continue through Saturday. Meanwhile, the thermal trough will reestablish itself along the coast Friday, producing gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas. This combination of conditions will result in a period of chaotic and potentially hazardous seas Saturday, then on Sunday, swell will diminish with winds possibly increasing to gales. Overall, expect hazardous conditions through the weekend due to a combination of strong winds and steep to very steep seas. Winds and seas will ease a bit early next week, but continued north winds and steep seas are likely to keep at least small craft advisory conditions ongoing through at least mid-week. -BPN && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Friday to 5 PM PDT Saturday for PZZ350-356-370-376. && $$ CC