052
FXUS66 KMFR 212250
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
350 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (00Z TAFs)...

While VFR conditions are expected inland throughout this TAF
cycle, the coast is expected to hold on to MVFR/IFR ceilings at
times. Currently, satellite shows this layer wobbling back and
forth from the shore, but chances are there will be low ceilings
through tonight at North Bend with moderate confidence. Lastly,
afternoon breezes will return tomorrow.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 212 PM PDT Fri Jun 21 2024/

DISCUSSION...Fairly quiet weather on tap this afternoon through
early Saturday a a weak trough exits the region. Saturday
afternoon and night, low pressure moves into the BC coast from the
north Pacific and troughing digs across the Pacnw. This will send
a marine push into the west side with some light rain or drizzle
for portions of the coast mainly from Coos Bay northward, and
mainly increased cloudiness elsewhere.

With the onshore push, winds will come up across the area
Saturday afternoon, then again Sunday afternoon as the upper
trough remains in the NW and and an increased surface gradient is
in our area. Main concern for this weekend is the wind on the
Little Applegate Fire. See fire discussion below.

Fairly quiet west to southwest flow aloft is on tap thereafter
through late week with another low to progress along 45-50N and
moving into western BC Thursday. This will allow for pops across
the coast and Umpqua to increase to 15 to 25% or light rain
Thursday with temps area-wide down 10 degrees or so. Pops should
decreasing into Friday with temps remaining down. Stavish

 &&

AVIATION 21/18Z TAFs...IFR ceilings will persist at the coast, with
some clearing south of Cape Blanco under gusty north winds. IFR/LIFR
ceilings and visibilities will expand back on shore tonight.

Inland, VFR ceilings will persist through the TAF period. Winds
gusting up to 20 mph will be possible in the Umpqua Basin this
afternoon. A fire in the Applegate Valley could produce local IFR
visibilities near that valley Friday afternoon, but should not
restrict visibility in the Rogue Valley. -Miles

MARINE...Updated 145 PM Friday, June 21, 2024...A combination
of high pressure offshore and a thermal trough along/near the coast
will remain in place through early next week. This will result in
persistent northerly winds and areas of steep to very steep wind-
driven seas. Winds will be strongest south of Pistol River, with
hazardous seas expected in that area overnight. The thermal trough
is expected to peak today and this will maintain advisory seas south
of Cape Blanco through tomorrow afternoon. Slight improvement is
expected Saturday night as a front brings a surge of stratus with
light showers possible mainly across the northern waters. -Guerrero

FIRE WEATHER...For areas west of the Cascades, over the next
couple days critical conditions are not expected. This will be
anchored by good humidity recoveries (80% and higher) in valleys and
moderate to good humidity recoveries over upper slopes and ridges
(50-70%) overnight. Afternoon humidities in this area will bottom
out in the mid to upper teens to 20 percent, with these minimum
humidity values trending similar this afternoon to Saturday
afternoon. Some drizzle in the coast range and across
Douglas County Saturday night, will continue to keep concerns
low.

East of the Cascades, weather conditions are a bit different, as
brief durations of critical wind & humidity conditions Saturday
and possibly Sunday are possible. These would be in eastern zone
624 between Bly and Lakeview, as well as around Alturas in Modoc
County. This will be caused by a dry front moving through late
Saturday into Sunday. The driest conditions are expected Saturday
near 10%, while the strongest breezes are expected Sunday
afternoon, with some areas gusting to 30 mph.

No lightning is expected over the forecast area through at least
Tuesday. -Miles

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT Saturday
     for PZZ356-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 2 AM PDT Saturday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$