351
FXUS62 KMHX 161103
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
703 AM EDT Sun Jun 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure dominates the rest of the weekend into next week
resulting in dry and warm conditions.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 7 AM Sun...A beautiful day is in store for ENC. Strong
ridging will build in today and result in a warm, dry forecast.
Highs across the coastal plain will creep into the low 90s with
the beaches maxing out in the mid 80s. The coolest spot will be
along the NOBX where onshore flow will keep highs around 80.
With a fairly dry column, skies will be mostly sunny.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Quiet conditions continue due to the strong
ridge building in. Lows across the coastal plain will be mild in
the mid 60s while the OBX will be in the comfortable low 70s.
Skies will be mostly clear and winds will be light, but a lack
of moisture should prevent widespread fog development.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Pleasant but dry weather through mid week, then
heat and humidity build at the end of the week through the
weekend.

Monday through Wednesday...Strong ridging will build over the
eastern US through mid- week, which will bring cont rain-free
weather. The core of the ridging will remain north of ENC
initially, and thus keeping the intense heat to the north across
the Mid Atlantic, Great Lakes, and Northeast. For ENC, easterly
flow is expected, which will keep conditions tempered, and in
fact quite pleasant. Have bumped temps down a good 5 degrees or
so for Mon/Tue, as highs now expected in the mid-upr 80s
interior, to low 80s OBX. In addition, TD`s will be very
tolerable, and remain in the 60s. This will bring cool nights to
the region, with lows in the 60s away from the immediate coast,
to low 70s beaches and OBX zones. RH`s will be in the upper 30s
to 40s each day and could lead to marginal fire weather
concerns, though lack of strong winds will limit this from being
more of a threat even with the lack of rain recently.

Thursday through Saturday...There are still notable differences
in the long range models, but the consensus is that low pres
will develop east of the Bahamas and move west towards the
Southeast Coast (FL/GA). Center of upr ridge will slide
eastward a bit, allowing for more of a serly flow to develop and
bring inc heat and humidity starting Thu. PoPs remain below
mentionable Thursday, though by Fri into the weekend, some
chance of a return to typical afternoon/early evening sea breeze
convection. Even so, only 20% pops advertised, as no strong
forcing feature is noted on med range ensembles. Temps will be
on the rise, towards 90 on Thur, and into the 90s Fri into the
weekend. TD`s will rise steadily as well, and a potential for
heat indices into the upr 90s to low 100s by week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 7 AM Sun...Pred VFR through the period as strong ridging
builds in. Today, winds will be easterly at 5-10 kt with few
high clouds. Overnight, winds will be light and skies will be
mostly clear but widespread fog is not expected given the lack
of moisture.

LONG TERM /Mon through Thu/...
As of 3 AM Sun...VFR conditions expected through the period
with high pressure remaining dominant through the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Sunday/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Sub-SCA conditions through the period. Flow will be
northeasterly at 10-15 kt with gusts close to 20 kt, mainly south of
Cape Hatteras and across the sounds, with 2-4 ft seas. 5-6 ft
seas are possible in the far outer central waters.

LONG TERM /Mon through Thu/...
As of 3 AM Sun...Sub- SCA through the period with high pressure
anchored to the north of ENC. Light to moderate erly flow of
10-15 kt, ocnl gusts to 20 kt expected. Seas will generally be
2-4 ft through mid week. Low pres will develop east of the
Bahamas this week and approach the SE Coast (FL/GA) by mid week.
Some higher swell may approach and seas possibly exceeding 6 ft
Wed night into Thu for the ctrl/srn waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...OJC
SHORT TERM...OJC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...OJC/TL
MARINE...OJC/TL