Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
332 FXUS63 KMKX 250822 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 322 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Mainstem river flooding and high water levels will continue over the next few days. - Heat index values into the 90s are possible today. - Strong Thunderstorms look to return later on Friday. && .SHORT TERM... Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Today and Tonight: Atmospheric conditions will change over most of the forecast area after 15Z today. CAPE and overall moisture will be meager after this time per models, as surface wind shifts more westerly. Therefore, this afternoon and evening should be generally dry. Temperatures will quickly rise by this afternoon with many locations approaching the upper 80s and lower 90s. Southern Wisconsin actually looks to be in a pinch this evening and tonight between showers and thunderstorms to our south over northern Illinois and another shortwave approaching from our west. This wave should be monitored tonight, as cloud cover increases. There also looks to be a weak surface boundary setting up across the forecast area later tonight, which may generate a few showers or an isolated thunderstorm, mostly near Lake Michigan in far southeast Wisconsin. KPL && .LONG TERM... Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Wednesday through Monday: Shortwave moves east Wednesday morning and early afternoon, as drier air begins to advect into Wisconsin. Heights aloft then push any energy well north of the forecast area. All indications are that shortwave ridging will result in dry weather later Wednesday through Thursday. In fact, it should be dry into early Friday across southern Wisconsin. Flow aloft then becomes more southwesterly on Friday with increasing moisture aided by yet another low level jet for Friday afternoon and evening. There also looks to be lift in the mid and upper levels with another trough approaching Wisconsin from the west. The result should be more thunderstorms, some could be strong. It will also be quite warm on Friday. There should also be a surface cold front moving through sometime Friday night into early Saturday. Thinking the instability will stick around for Saturday to keep some shower and thunderstorm chances. Will have to keep an eye out for another shortwave aloft during the day Saturday, possibly supporting steeper lapse rates (and hence instability). Temperatures should be a little cooler on Saturday. Sunday and Monday in the extended then look dry and pleasant across southern Wisconsin. No weather threats to consider at this time, but will take a closer look as we approach the upcoming weekend. KPL && .AVIATION... Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Surface winds will decrease later this morning and afternoon. Any remaining storms will dissipate or exit the region, leaving VFR conditions for this afternoon and evening. There will remain some cloud cover tonight into early Wednesday, but a brief drying trend will occur across southern Wisconsin routes. KPL && .MARINE... Issued 320 AM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024 Storms will move off the northern parts of Lake Michigan this morning. There will be some clearing with less wind by this afternoon. Winds will then be variable over most of Lake Michigan through Wednesday. Isolated showers and storms remain possible early Wednesday before a drying trend begins. Next day for increasing waves and small craft concerns will be on Friday. We will also allow the Small Craft Advisory to expire at 12Z. KPL && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Tuesday. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee