Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
705 FXUS63 KMKX 150244 AFDMKX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 944 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Pleasant temperatures and dewpoints tnt-Sat. - Thunderstorm chances return late Saturday into Sunday. - Hot weather is anticipated Sunday into the middle of the work week. Heat indices in the upper 90s may be possible Monday and Tuesday. && .UPDATE... Issued 943 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 High pressure of 1020 MB just ne of Lake Superior will track to the lower Great Lakes by 00Z Sun, while the shortwave trough over CO moves across the central Great Plains. Sely winds and warm advection will ensue over srn WI but with broken high cloud cover at times via warm advection aloft. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Tonight through Sunday Morning: Forecast is expected to remain quiet tonight with weak high pressure overhead with a fairly strong ridge nudging into the region behind the dry shortwave to the east. This ridging is expected to largely dominate the region over the next several days. Saturday during the day will thus largely be quiet though the high pressure could (50%) feature another weak backdoor cold front that would really just be a strong lake breeze pushing well to the west by the late afternoon hours. Some embedded shortwave activity within the ridge will push through Saturday late evening into early Sunday morning with some help from the strengthening 40-60 kt LLJ overnight in addition to some help from the deep surface low in south central Canada. This will likely (80%) bring some showers and storms across parts of the region though with the LLJ primarily staying off to the west of the CWA most of the stronger storm potential will stay off to the north and west. Southeast parts of the CWA may (50%) actually remain dry with the northwest half of the CWA seeing 60-90% (lessening chances further southeast you go) chances for showers and storms. We will be monitoring the far northwest parts of the area for perhaps a few stronger storms but given the overall timing of this system strong to severe storms remain unlikely (10%). This system may linger into Sunday morning before ultimately pushing off to the north and east. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Sunday Afternoon through Friday: Sunday Through Friday Synopsis: The shortwave trough responsible for increasing shower & storm chances through Saturday night/the conclusion of the short term period will migrate east of the region by Sunday evening. The feature`s departure will give way to an upper pattern broadly characterized by subtropical ridging along the Eastern Seaboard and mean troughing across the west through the long term period. Located along the western periphery of said ridging, hot high temperatures will prevail across the region through the first half of next week. Emerging out of the aforementioned western troughing, an upper disturbance will eject into the Northern Plains on Tuesday, progressing into the Canadian prairies on Wednesday. An affiliated surface low will concurrently take a similar track, dragging a cold front into the Upper Mississippi Valley in the process. Said boundary is likely to stall out somewhere between the Missouri Valley and Western Great Lakes during the mid-late week period next week, supporting additional shower and storm potential Wednesday through Friday. Sunday Through Tuesday: Very warm high temperatures will prevail across southern Wisconsin as upper ridging builds over the eastern half of the CONUS. The afternoon update shows readings ranging from the upper 80s to low 90s away from Lake Michigan each day. Southerly winds & heightened dew points will combine with the warm temperatures to create muggy conditions, with heat indices in the low to mid 90s possible during each afternoon period. Be sure to drink plenty of water, wear light-colored & loose-fitting clothing, and take frequent breaks in the shade if planning to be outdoors for prolonged amounts of time during this portion of the period. Isolated to scattered showers and storms are possible each afternoon, though widespread activity is not expected. Wednesday Through Friday: Warm conditions will continue, though high temps will be a touch cooler compared to earlier in the week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue with a surface front progged to stall over the Western Great Lakes. Coverage & precise PoPs will depend upon precise positioning of the stalled frontal feature, which remains uncertain at this time. Will continue to monitor trends and make adjustments as necessary over the coming forecast cycles. It remains too early to comment on any strong/severe potential in storms developing during the late week period. Quigley && .AVIATION... Issued 943 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 VFR conditions from tonight into Saturday evening. Gehring && .MARINE... Issued 245 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024 Breezy northerly winds over most of the lake will gradually turn to the southeast and weaken overnight as high pressure slides to the east of the region. Modest southeasterly winds will then persist through Saturday into Saturday night. Winds will then turn southerly and gusty on Sunday as a tighter pressure gradient moves over the Upper Great Lakes. There will likely be a need for a Small Craft Advisory for at least part of the nearshore waters Sunday. Otherwise modest southerly winds will likely dominate the region through at least midweek with low pressure off to the west. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && $$ Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee