593
FXUS62 KMLB 270500
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
100 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

Tranquil conditions persist with predominant southwesterly flow in
the boundary layer through the morning hours, even VRB at a few
inland sites. A few showers may approach LEE from the Gulf Coast
between daybreak and midday (20-30% chance). Otherwise, 40-60%
chance for storms after 27/18Z through sunset, focusing the
highest coverage near the coastal terminals. TEMPOs were added for
coastal sites; running with VC coverage at KMCO due to lesser
certainty in thunderstorm coverage. VFR should prevail outside of
storms. Sea breeze will try to turn winds SE at MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA
after 27/19Z or so.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Weak high pressure remains over the area tonight with surface
winds decreasing. Storms have ended with only a stray shower or
two moving offshore. Sky conditions will improve overnight as
temperatures retreat into the 70s. Winds are forecast to
generally stay under 10 mph, becoming southwesterly into Thursday
morning. PoPs and temperatures were updated through the evening
to reflect the latest trends/observations. Otherwise, the previous
forecast is in good shape for the rest of tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 950 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Tonight...Surface ridge axis will remain across the Florida
Straits into tonight. SW flow is expected overnight, with speeds
generally around 10-12 KT. Seas will be 2 ft. Isolated showers
and a storm or two are possible well offshore, mainly toward
daybreak, though there is some uncertainty regarding additional rain
chances overnight.

Thursday-Monday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Seas around 2 ft
gradually increase to 3 ft across the offshore waters Thursday
and Friday as an onshore swell increases. Light offshore winds
become onshore Saturday before developing a broad southerly
component on Sunday. Winds back with the development of the east
coast sea breeze each afternoon. A summertime pattern continues
with high coverage of showers and storms forecast across the local
waters (50-70%) each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  76  93  76 /  60  20  60  30
MCO  93  76  94  77 /  50  10  60  20
MLB  93  76  92  76 /  60  20  50  30
VRB  93  74  93  75 /  60  20  50  30
LEE  92  77  94  77 /  50  10  60  20
SFB  94  76  94  76 /  60  10  60  20
ORL  93  77  94  78 /  60  10  60  20
FPR  92  74  93  75 /  60  20  50  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil