Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL
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423 FXUS62 KMLB 231808 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Key Messages... -Main weather concern heading into the holiday weekend will be the heat, as hotter than normal conditions are expected, with highs well into the 90s. -Overall drier than normal conditions expected each day through Monday, but isolated afternoon showers and storms may still be possible, mainly inland on Saturday. Currently-Tonight...Dry conditions to prevail across east central Florida for the rest of the afternoon into tonight, with sea breeze pushing west of the area by sunset, and skies remaining mostly clear. Lows tonight will fall into the upper 60s to low 70s. Winds will again become light and variable overnight, but guidance still not showing much in the way of fog development. However, settling of smoke from any active or smoldering brush fires will still produce a concern for visibility issues along any nearby area roadways. Friday...Ridge axis of sfc high pressure over the west Atlantic continues to shift southward and across the area into tomorrow. This will allow winds to become southerly and remain light through the morning, before the east coast sea breeze develops and moves inland, switching winds to the east with speeds increasing to around 10 mph. Moisture does increase across the area, with PW values reaching up to 1.5-1.7 inches in the afternoon. Late day sea breeze collision expected across the interior, near to just west of Orlando, and CAM guidance does indicate some limited shower development where this occurs toward sunset. However, mid-level ridge aloft will work to suppress any convective development, and MOS guidance keeping conditions dry, so will continue to keep rain chances below mentionable levels for now. Warming trend continues into Friday, with highs above normal in the upper 80s/low 90s along the coast and mid 90s over much of the interior. Peak heat index values will range from the upper 90s to low 100s. Overnight lows will be mild, falling into the low to mid 70s. Saturday-Wednesday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Much of this period will be highlighted by increasing temperatures. Mid-level ridging will extend across the GoMex to across the FL peninsula into early next week as any decent shortwave energy remains north of the area. Some weak energy aloft does finally push south across the area by late Tue thru mid next week. At the surface, a rather weak pressure gradient remains in place thru the weekend. Surface high pressure does get nudged further south/east late in the weekend and early next week with a potential frontal boundary getting forced south into the area late Tue/Wed. These two days will also have the deepest moisture across the area with the highest PoP chances over the extended. Otherwise, drier than normal conditions will largely continue into the holiday weekend, with only a slight chance (20%) for showers and storms currently forecast for Saturday, mainly across the interior. Chc (30-40pct) PoPs returning Tue-Wed. Highs mostly in the 90s areawide each day with maxes in the M-U90s for many inland areas at least thru Tue. Heat indices in the L-M100s each day thru at least Tue, with some U100s possible Sun-Tue, generally south of Orlando and Melbourne, which would flirt with Heat Advisory criteria. Conditions will be humid overnight, with values 70-75F on average for most. Take extra precaution if participating in outdoor activities this Memorial Day weekend. Take frequent breaks in shaded or air conditioned areas and stay hydrated. Know the signs of heat related illness! && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFs) Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 VFR conditions through the TAF period. FEW/SCT030-050 and 150-250 this afternoon. Winds have backed to the NE along the coast with speeds around 10 KT as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. SE winds 5-10 KT currently at inland terminals will back to NE behind the sea breeze into the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable into the evening before becoming NE/ESE by late Friday morning and increase to 5-10 KT. The east coast sea breeze is forecast to form once again, shifting winds to the E/NE once again in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Tonight...High pressure ridge axis settles southward across the waters into tonight, with easterly winds around 5-10 knots veering to the south late tonight and diminishing to 5 knots or less. Seas will range from 2-3 feet. Dry conditions continuing. Thu-Sun...(Previous Discussion) Continued favorable boating conditions, though it will be increasingly hot and any shower/storm chances will only be ISOLD to WDLY SCT - most likely across the Gulf Stream. Winds again become onshore each late morning and afternoon with daily sea breeze regime (10-15 kts along the coast), but will veer a light offshore component or become light/variable each overnight period. Seas mostly AOB 3 ft. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 208 PM EDT Thu May 23 2024 Friday-Monday...Sensitive fire weather conditions continue through late week and into the weekend, mainly across the interior, as temperatures become hotter than normal and mostly dry conditions persist. Highs reach the mid 90s inland on Friday and Saturday, and then in the mid to upper 90s on Sunday and Monday. Min RH values will fall to the mid 30s to low 40s west of I-95 each afternoon. Wind speeds, however, are forecast to remain below 15 mph through the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 69 90 71 92 / 0 10 10 10 MCO 69 94 73 96 / 0 10 10 20 MLB 71 88 72 90 / 0 0 0 10 VRB 69 89 71 92 / 0 0 0 10 LEE 72 94 74 94 / 0 10 10 20 SFB 69 94 72 95 / 0 10 10 20 ORL 71 95 74 96 / 0 10 10 20 FPR 68 89 71 92 / 0 0 0 20 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Weitlich AVIATION...Watson