Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 231911
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
311 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019

...Prolonged Dry Spell into Next Week...

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight-Friday...Onshore gradient winds became breezy this
afternoon with some 25+ mph gusts at both coast and inland
locations by midday. Stable conditions ascd with high pressure
subsidence will prevent showers during the period. Expect winds
to diminish after dusk with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Another warm and mostly sunny day Friday, with highs making it to
the U80s coast and L-M 90s inland. An early east coast seabreeze
will be the main feature once again with some breezy conditions
once again in the afternoon.

Sat-Thu...(modified prev disc)
Extended models show little change in the negative PNA WX pattern
over the next several days. Strong mid/upr lvl ridging will remain
anchored over the SE CONUS as the H30-H20 jetstream maintains a
highly amplified wrn cyclonic/ern anticyclonic orientation. Position
of the ridge will effectively block out any low/mid lvl moisture
pockets capable of generating any meaningful precip chances, while
producing a moderate to strong mid lvl thermal cap with H70 temps
hovering btwn 9-10C.

At the surface, the ridge axis will meander acrs the SW Atlc/FL
peninsula thru the holiday weekend and into the middle of next week.
This will generate an steady onshore flow thru the H100-H50 lyr that
will focus the warmest temps over the interior each afternoon. Highs
will range from M/U80s along the coast to the U80s/M90s over the
interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with no obstructions to sky or visibility over the next 24H.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Friday...Combination of wind wave and some swell will keep
seas up into the 3-4ft range near shore and to 4-5 ft offshore
overnight. Somewhat lighter winds Friday will allow seas to
diminish to around 4 ft during the day.

Sat-Tue...High pres ridge axis will meander acrs the SW Atlc/FL
peninsula into early next week. Steady state conds anticipated with
a gentle to moderate SErly breeze prevailing, generating 2-3FT seas
over the shelf waters and 3-4FT seas over the Gulf Stream. Brief,
isold shras may form in the wake eddys downstream of the nrn
Bahamas, but overall chances and impacts too low to mention in the
fcst attm.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...With the drying trend continuing, all fuel types
will continue to become more receptive daily for fire growth with
moderate to high afternoon probability of ignition. Mentionable
rain chances remain out of the forecast well into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  86  70  87 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  67  93  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  70  86  72  84 /  10   0   0   0
VRB  68  86  73  84 /  10   0   0   0
LEE  70  93  68  94 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  66  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  69  91  68  92 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  69  85  73  84 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP/MB/JC



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