Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS62 KMLB 240129

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
929 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

Tonight...The mid-upper level winds have been veering to the
northwest as a trough over the eastern seaboard shifts east. This
has spread extensive mid-high level cloudiness that was over the
deep south into most of east central Florida.  A weak inverted
surface trough near the coast should keep most Atlantic shower
activity offshore, but with a quite moist air mass in place, cannot
rule out small coastal PoPs.  The highest chance will be across the
north coast, and will leave 30-40% there.  Some light rain falling
out of the mid level cloud deck across the north should diminish
after midnight.

Little change to the current forecast is planned.


.AVIATION...A weak inverted trough is keeping the atmosphere quite
moist especially from around Cape Canaveral northward.  KTIX-KDAB
could experience showers overnight, but presently radar shows the
activity well offshore.  There could also be some stratus forming
late at the interior terminals, especially if mid/high level
cloudiness diminishes some like the GFS is suggesting.  There`s not
enough confidence to place that in the TAFs yet.  On Tue, little
change in the rather light northeast low level flow is indicated.
Expect low shower chances again, especially across the north during
daytime heating.


Tonight-Wednesday...An inverted trough near the coast will provide a
northerly wind flow which the models show around 10 knots over most
of the continental shelf waters.  Buoy 41009 recently had an
increase to around 15 knots, so will have to watch trends because
the models haven`t been showing any increase until Wed afternoon.
Recent HRRR model runs have shown an increase in coverage of showers
overnight into Wed morning near the inverted trough just offshore.
Not planning to change the current forecast much.




IMPACT WEATHER...Negron/Combs is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.