Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281331
AFDMLB

East Central Florida Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
932 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.DISCUSSION...

...High Rip Current Risk in Effect Today...
...Fire Sensitive Day For The Interior...
...Heat Will Continue Through Early Next Week...

Currently...Early visibile imagery clearly shows the FL peninsula
lies in the midst of a defined anti-cyclonic gyre. Sfc analysis
indicates the axis of Atlc high pressure oriented just north of
Grand Bahama to around Vero Beach inland. Some early ground fog in a
few sites quickly cleared after daybreak. No changes to present
forecasts.

prev disc...

Today-tonight...Strong mid-upper level high will continue to build
over the top of Florida, while the axis of the Atlantic surface
ridge doesn`t budge from its position across the central peninsula.
Without morning clouds to contend with, this portends a day of full
sun with highs in the L80s at the beaches, 85-90F on the mainland of
the coastal counties, and L90s for the inland counties. Mins in the
60s once again under clear skies.

Sunday-Tuesday...Mid level ridge extending across Florida will begin
to break down Tue as strengthening mid/upper trough over the central
U.S. shifts eastward toward the Mid-Atlantic coast. The dominant
ridge aloft will maintain a hot and dry pattern from Sun into early
next week. Rain chances will remain out of the forecast through the
period, with highs ranging from the mid-upper 80s along the coast
and in the lower 90s over the interior on Sun-Mon. Then, as low
pressure moves through the Southeast U.S. dragging a weak cold front
toward the Florida panhandle, low level winds will increase out of
the southwest. This should prevent east coast sea breeze formation,
with highs over much of the area reaching the lower 90s. Lows will
remain quite mild in the 60s each night.

Tuesday night-Friday...Isolated to scattered showers will be
possible ahead of weak front that will approach and move through
central Florida into late Tue night through Wed morning. Overall
moisture increase ahead of the boundary isn`t all too great with PW
values reaching 1.5-1.7 inches, and main forcing will remain well
north of the area. Will therefore keep any thunderstorm mention out
of the forecast for now, with rain chances limited to 30-40 percent
as front moves through the region. Drier conditions then return
behind the front, with rain chances remaining out of the forecast
through the rest of the week. However, latest ECMWF has started to
trend a little wetter toward the end of the week into Saturday with
an approaching disturbance ahead of another cold front that will
near the area into next weekend. If trend holds may need to
introduce rain chances later in the forecast period.

Temperatures will gradually cool through mid to late week with the
frontal passage with highs in the mid to upper 80s Wednesday,
dropping to the upper 70s to low 80s late in the week. Lows behind
the front will fall into the 50s to low 60s across the area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR/SKC AOB 250.

&&

.MARINE...Seas are now comprised almost entirely of swell with a
12s period/3-4ft near the coast and 5ft offshore. The building swell
and longer period will produce a high risk of dangerous rip currents
at area beaches today.

Sunday-Wednesday...Ridge axis across the area will gradually shift
southward into Tue as weak cold front approaches and eventually
moves across the waters late Tue night through Wed morning. A more
S/SE, no greater that 10-15 knots, will generally persist through
early next week, with seas 1-3 feet. Then as front moves through
winds will become offshore and increase to 15-20 knots offshore
Tue night, with seas increasing up to 4-5 feet.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...While winds will remain below 15 mph over the
interior today, RH values there will drop to between 30 and 35 pct
The ECSB keep coastal areas in the 40s and lower 50s, with U30s
confined near the borders of adjacent inland counties. This will
lead to a fire sensitive day, especially away from the coast.

Sunday-Tuesday...Very warm and dry conditions will produce min RH
values around the upper 30s to low 40s inland. While southerly winds
should remain below 15 mph through the period, the extremely dry
conditions across the area this month will keep an elevated fire
weather threat in place.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  64  89  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  93  65  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  85  67  86  66 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  85  65  87  64 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  93  65  93  67 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  93  64  92  66 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  93  66  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  85  66  87  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

JP/MRV



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