017
FXUS62 KMLB 210539
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1239 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

- Cold rain developing late tonight into Wednesday as a frontal
  boundary lifts northward across the peninsula.

- Becoming windy with a period of Gale conditions possible
  Tuesday night into Wednesday with high, pounding surf along the
  coast, especially Cape Canaveral northward.

- Coldest temperatures forecast late this week with increased
  sunshine this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 930 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

The previous forecast remains on track as temperatures have
quickly fallen into the 40s and 50s across much of the area.
Deeper moisture will gradually expand northward overnight,
bringing an increase in clouds and light to moderate showers. This
evening`s 23z XMR sounding indicates quite a bit of dry air in the
lowest 300mb, so it will take some time for the atmosphere to
support precipitation making it to the surface. Hi-res guidance
suggests that measurable rain will increase in coverage from south
to north after 3-4 AM. Northerly winds remain breezy at times,
especially along the Treasure Coast. An increasing north wind
is forecast along the Volusia County coast, closer to sunrise.

Due to the added cloud cover and increase in southerly 850mb flow,
temperatures are forecast to remain nearly steady or climb a
couple degrees after midnight (especially south). Lows will range
from the upper 30s/low 40s north of I-4 to the low to mid 50s
from Melbourne southward.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Tonight...The cold front draped just south of the Florida
peninsula is forecast lift northward back towards the peninsula
tonight, leading to increasing rain chances from the south towards
the north after midnight and into early morning. Lightning is not
forecast with this activity. Northerly winds are expected to
prevail overnight, with considerable cloud coverage present across
east central Florida. Cool across the area tonight, with lows in
the upper 30s to low 40s north of the I-4 corridor, and in the mid
40s to low 50s southwards. Some areas along the Treasure Coast,
particularly along the immediate coast, may only fall into the mid
50s tonight.

Tuesday-Wednesday...The aforementioned frontal boundary is
forecast to remain draped across the Florida peninsula over the
next several days, with a couple of low pressure waves forecast to
ride along the boundary. As a result, rain chances remain high
(60-90%) over the next few days thanks to plentiful moisture
present across the area. The Sunshine State also won`t quite be
living up to its name, with considerably cloudy skies forecast
through at least Wednesday as a result of the increased moisture.

Outside of the rainy conditions, winds are forecast to pick up
behind the first low pressure wave that transits the area, with
the tightening pressure gradient leading to northerly winds
increasing to 15 to 25 mph and gusts of 35 to 40 mph possible. The
strongest winds will likely be felt along the coast. As a result
of the increasing winds, seas are forecast to build across the
local Atlantic waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. At the
beaches, conditions may become hazardous, with breaking waves of 4
to 7 feet possible in the surf zone. Entering the surf will not
be advised during this time, and the issuance of a High Surf
Advisory will likely be needed. Winds are forecast to slowly
diminish as the pressure gradient slackens Wednesday night, but
will remain out of the north.

Temperatures are forecast to remain below normal for this time of
year, with highs in the 50s across much of the interior and along
the coast north of the Cape and in the 60s along the coast south
of the Cape. Quite the gradient at night, with lows generally in
the mid 30s to mid 40s near and north of the I-4 corridor and in
the mid 40s to mid 50s south of the I-4 corridor. Wind chill
values fall into the low to mid 30s across much of the interior
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, improving to the mid to
upper 30s Wednesday night into Thursday morning as winds diminish.

Thursday-Monday (previous modified)...A continued unsettled weather
pattern is forecast late week as another weak wave of low pressure
rides along the nearby stalled front Thu with scattered showers
(PoPs 40-50%), departing Thu night. More significant drying is
forecast to overspread the area Fri-Sat with the coldest temps
forecast for this week. Widespread 30s is forecast by Sat morning
with low-mid 40s immediate coast. Increasing sunshine should allow
max temps to finally rise into the 60s across northern sections. As
high pressure tracks east into the Atlc off the Carolina coast Sun,
local winds will turn onshore and allow a warming trend to take
hold. Max temps Sunday in the low to mid 70s, increasing into the
low to upper 70s on Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EST Mon Jan 20 2025

Poor to hazardous boating conditions continue across the local
Atlantic waters this afternoon into tonight, with northerly winds
around 20 knots and seas of 4 to 7 feet persisting. Small Craft
Advisories across all legs of the local waters dropping to only
the offshore Brevard and Treasure Coast waters after 7 PM, and
then ending altogether at 10 PM. Seas fall to 3 to 5 feet as
winds diminish to 10 to 15 knots late tonight. A cold front
draped across south Florida will drift northward, increasing rain
chances locally tonight, with high rain chances persisting over
the next several days as a series of low pressure waves move along
the front. Poor to hazardous boating conditions develop once
again Tuesday evening, as winds increase to 20 to 30 knots with
gusts to 35 knots possible. Seas are forecast to build to 6 to 9
feet across the nearshore waters and 9 to 12 feet across the
offshore waters. An additional Small Craft Advisory has been
raised to capture the start of this event, but would not be
surprised if temporal extensions are needed beyond 00Z Thursday.
Another low moves across the waters on Thursday, finally dragging
the front away from the area, with conditions clearing behind the
low. High pressure develops, and seas are forecast to subside on
Friday evening below 6 feet.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 1239 AM EST Tue Jan 21 2025

MCO IMPACTS:
 - Occasional MVFR CIGs by around 12Z, prevailing MVFR by 21/16-18Z.
 - Approx 50% chance of IFR CIGs between 21/20-22/04Z.
 - Periods of showers later today and tonight.

Rather busy TAFs tonight with lowering CIGs from south to north
across our terminals through the next 12-18 HR as a weather
disturbance arrives. IFR conds forecast to prevail at the coastal
terminals from VRB southward by morning and by afternoon/evening
closer to DAB. For the Orlando area terminals, CIGs are somewhat
more uncertain with 40-50% risk of IFR after 20Z and within
heavier showers. Periods of showers arrive overnight, and last
through much of the TAF period. Winds remain N to NNE, becoming
gusty and turning NNW between 22/00Z-03Z as a cold front slides
southward. Few gusts to 30 KT possible tomorrow evening, esp at
DAB/TIX.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  41  54  47 /  80 100  80  30
MCO  58  44  52  49 /  90 100  70  30
MLB  64  48  60  52 /  90  90  90  40
VRB  68  53  64  56 /  90  90  90  40
LEE  57  39  50  43 /  70 100  50  20
SFB  59  43  53  47 /  80 100  70  30
ORL  59  43  53  48 /  90 100  70  30
FPR  67  52  63  56 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ550-570.

     Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 PM EST
     Wednesday for AMZ552-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 PM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil