Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 190231
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1031 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Improving conditions are forecast through the overnight hours
across east central Florida, with model guidance indicating
another round of isolated to scattered showers, primarily across
the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee County, late tonight as the
front pushes further south. An isolated storm or two cannot fully
be ruled out, though confidence in this is low. Went ahead and
upped PoPs based on this to around 30 percent across the southern
portions of the forecast area. Shower and storm chances are then
forecast to diminish overnight across east central Florida as
drier air begins filtering in across the peninsula behind the
front. North to northwest winds are forecast to increase to 10 to
25 mph with gusts 25 to 35 mph behind the front, with the
strongest gusts forecast to occur along the coast, especially the
Barrier Islands. Skies will gradually clear due to the drier
airmass moving in. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler than
last night, with lows in the mid to upper 40s north and west of
the I-4 corridor, and in the 50s southward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Deteriorating boating conditions are forecast across the local
Atlantic waters tonight. Winds are forecast to increase out of the
north behind a cold front that is moving southward across the
local Atlantic waters, with winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20
to 30 knots late tonight. Occasional wind gusts between 35 to 40
knots will be possible, especially across the offshore waters. In
response to these increasing winds, seas will also increase to 6
to 10 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is currently in effect across
the offshore Volusia and Brevard waters, and will expand to
include the remaining waters after 1 AM.

Isolated to scattered shower development will continue to be
possible tonight as the front sags southward, with rain chances
decreasing through the overnight hours. Isolated storms cannot be
ruled out, though confidence in any more development is low. Dry
conditions are forecast behind the front.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 918 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Tue-Thu (Previous)...Very dry conditions through mid-week, as
post- frontal air leads to min RH values around 45% or lower Tue
area- wide and as low as the upper 20%s across the interior. This
will lead to very sensitive fire weather conditions when combined
with northerly winds 10-15 mph, and up to 15-20 mph along the
coast, Tue morning. But, will see winds decrease by Tue aftn.
Generally Good to Very Good dispersion in the morning will become
Fair to Generally Good through the day.

Further drying is then forecast Wed, with widespread min RHs in the
mid to upper 20%s, while coastal areas south of the Cape remain in
the mid to upper 30%s. However, winds become light, as high pressure
builds into the area. Wind directions will be variable, but a sea
breeze is possible during the afternoon. Lighter winds will lead to
Poor to Fair dispersion.

Will see some improvement Thu, though min RH 30-45% is still
forecast, with the driest conditions inland. Winds increase once
again, becoming easterly around 8-12 mph in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 918 PM EDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VCSH diminishing across east central Florida after 03Z as the cold
front sags southward. Increasing north-northwesterly winds
tonight, with winds 10 to 15 knots and gusts up to 25 knots
possible. Skies are forecast to gradually clear across the area as
drier air filters in behind the front. As a result, VFR
conditions are forecast through the period. Winds will gradually
diminish to around 10 knots tomorrow. Dry through the period after
03Z tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  48  62  44  73 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  51  67  47  74 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  54  66  50  73 /  20   0   0   0
VRB  57  69  50  74 /  30   0   0   0
LEE  47  67  45  73 /  20   0   0   0
SFB  49  66  44  75 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  51  67  48  75 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  57  69  49  74 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ550-
     552.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

Tollefsen/Weitlich


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