Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 122007
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
407 PM EDT Wed Aug 12 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Rest of afternoon-Thu...Another afternoon of convection across
east central FL. Showers and thunderstorms will continue to
develop through the early evening as outflow boundaries being
generated from storms interact with others. Movement of these is
quite different across the area as the wind flow over Treasure
Coast is from the southeast and north of Osceola is from the
southwest. This activity is expected to lose momentum after sunset
and intensity of storms should decrease, remaining as light to
moderate rain through around 10 pm. Then for the rest of the
night, skies will be partly to mostly cloudy and lows dropping to
mid 70s.

On Thu, similar scenario as synoptic pattern remains the same over
east central FL. There could be less coverage for Treasure Coast
as bulk of moisture slightly shifts northward. However, with
outflow boundaries moving around, showers and thunderstorms will
still be possible over this area. Highs will reach the lower-mid
90s.

Friday-Saturday...An area of high moisture over the
southeast U.S. will get pushed to the northeast as an area of low
pressure develops over the mid-Atlantic states late on Friday. The
models differ slightly from each other on the intensity of the
low from Saturday onward. The intensity of the low will affect the
ridge extending from the Atlantic and its affects on ECFL.
Regardless of this, both GFS/ECMWF models indicate that moisture
will remain over the peninsula and with diurnal heating and
adequate instability, active weather will be possible every
afternoon. The distribution of the coverage will depend on the
position of the ridge on each day. Highs will remain consistent,
warming to the lower-mid 90s with lows dropping to the 70s each
night.

Weekend-Next Week (previous)...There is reasonably good consensus
on the Euro and GFS depicting the above mentioned wave fully
eroding the Wrn Atlc ridge east of the state during the upcoming
weekend. The resulting pattern featuring deep SW flow along with
good moisture supply appears to persist well into next week,
allowing for a favorable regime locally for daily rainfall/storm
chances areawide. The Waveform responsible for the regional
pattern shift eventually becomes a full latitude trough along the
US Appalachians and SE coast by the middle of next week, with a
high amplitude pattern across the CONUS, as deep ridging sets up
across the Great Basin/Rockies. expect numerous PoP phrasing
locally from the weekend and well into next week. Daily rain
chances may become more than numerous on some of the days ahead as
they are evaluated in a shorter term setting.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA will continue to affect the terminals this afternoon as
sea breeze interact with storm boundaries and new storms get
generated. Amendments will be issued to address these as activity
continues to evolve. Gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes and
reduced visibilities remain possible. As sun comes down, coverage
will diminish and VFR conditions will return to the local
terminals through the night.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight-Thu...High pressure extending from the northeast into
Florida will keep light winds tonight and Thu across the local
Atlantic waters. Storms that move from land could cause brief
gusty winds and localized higher seas. Otherwise, winds will be
10 kt or less with seas 1-3 ft through Thu.

Fri through weekend (previous)...Favorable open water conditions
can be expected with seas 2 ft or less near shore and becoming 2
to 3 ft offshore by Thu night into Fri. A largely offshore wind
component should keep seas on the lower side near the coast, with
the only concern briefly higher winds and seas ascd with offshore
moving storms for much of the period beginning late this week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Little Wekiva River near Altamonte Springs crossed into
Action Stage after a period of heavy rain yesterday, and remains
just below Action Stage which is 27.5 feet as of early this afternoon.
River levels may fluctuate near to just below this level into
this afternoon. However, any additional heavy rainfall in this
basin later today or into the rest of the week could push the
river closer to Flood Stage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  75  91  75  92 /  30  60  20  50
MCO  75  94  75  94 /  30  70  10  60
MLB  77  90  76  91 /  20  50  20  40
VRB  76  91  74  91 /  20  40  10  40
LEE  76  93  76  94 /  30  70  10  60
SFB  76  94  76  95 /  30  70  10  60
ORL  76  94  77  94 /  30  70  10  60
FPR  77  91  74  92 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Negron/Combs/Watson/Smith


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