Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 240724
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
324 AM EDT Tue Apr 24 2018

...Rain Chances Focused Across the Southern Half of East Central
Florida Today...

.DISCUSSION...
Today...A mid level closed low at 500 mbs across wrn TN will move
gradually eastward through late afternoon with surface low pressure
across N GA moving eastward into SC. Low level SW/WSW flow will veer
to the west this afternoon as a drier airmass moves in across the
nrn half of the forecast area through the afternoon hours. Deeper
moisture will move eastward across southern Osceola/Okeechobee
county and the Treasure coast into late afternoon with scattered to
numerous showers and a chance of lightning storms expected generally
south of a Kissimmee to Cape Canaveral line. Rain chances will range
from 10 percent from Orlando northward to 30 percent in Melbourne to
60 percent from Vero Beach south including Okeechobee. High temps
will range from the lower-mid 80s north to mid-upper 80s south.

Tonight...Will continue low shower chances across the far south into
the evening before showers move eastward across the Atlantic waters.
Drier air will continue to filter into the region with low level WNW
flow expected behind the frontal moving offshore through the night.
Cooler lows are expected with temps in the lower to mid 60s.

Wed-Sat...Despite a fast-moving and energetic flow pattern aloft
over the eastern-third of the nation, mostly dry conditions are
expected from mid to late week. Energy from the first closed low
will become absorbed within another northern- stream shortwave
over the northeast late Wednesday, giving way to two additional
shortwave troughs that will dig toward the deep south through late
week, the first Thursday night and the second on Saturday. Their
accompanying surface fronts will have limited moisture to work
with as they cross the peninsula, supporting only a small chance
of PoPs on Friday afternoon into early Saturday. Low-level
synoptic flow remains offshore through the period, though the
pressure gradient looks weak enough for the Atlantic sea breeze to
shift winds onshore along the coast each afternoon. Pleasant
conditions are expected as offshore flow keeps dewpoints in check
and temps remain near to a few degrees above their late April
average.

Sun-Mon...Surface high pressure will build over the mid-Atlantic
as broad ridging replaces the trough aloft, leading to a notable
uptick in onshore flow early next week. Afternoon temps should
trend closer to normal given the increasingly breezy east winds
while remaining above normal at night. Moisture looks low enough
to keep the extended dry for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of SCT-BKN MVFR CIGs may drop briefly to the IFR range from
09z-13z across nrn terminals. Mainly VFR CIGS are expected from KISM-
KTIX and southward into the afternoon, except MVFR CIGs with
scattered SHRA/isolated TSRA mainly from KMLB to KSUA. Drier air
moving in from the west should bring VFR conds to nrn terminals by
mid day (KMCO northward). VFR conds all areas tonight though some
SHRA may linger in KSUA vcnty a few hours past 00z before moving
offshore.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...W/SW winds up to 10-15 knots with seas 3-5 ft near shore
and up to 5-6 ft offshore this morning across the nrn waters.
There will be a chance for afternoon storms mainly from Melbourne
Beach south to Jupiter Inlet.

Tonight...West winds in the evening will become WNW to 15-20 knots
offshore overnight. Expect SCEC conditions well offshore with seas 3-
4 ft nearshore overnight.

Wed-Sat...A series of mainly dry frontal passages will maintain
offshore winds through late week; however, a rather loose pressure
gradient indicated by the models suggest the Atlantic sea breeze
circulation will disrupt the offshore flow from time to time in the
afternoon, most notably on Thursday. Seas 2-4 feet nearshore and 3-5
feet offshore through Wednesday night, generally 2-3 feet
thereafter.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  60  82  61 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  85  62  85  61 /  10   0   0   0
MLB  86  63  85  62 /  30  10   0   0
VRB  86  62  84  61 /  60  10  10   0
LEE  83  62  83  61 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  84  61  84  61 /  10   0   0   0
ORL  84  63  83  62 /  10   0   0   0
FPR  87  61  84  60 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Ulrich/Volkmer


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