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000
FXUS62 KMLB 081329
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
929 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION, HYDROLOGY...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Mostly dry across ECFL this morning with satellite and radar
imagery showing some convective initiation along the Gulf Coast.
SW flow will steer west FL showers and storms inland, and current
trends suggest isolated showers across the interior counties as
early as 10-11 AM. There is low confidence in a sea breeze
development this afternoon, and if one develops, it will remain
pinned to the coast. Coverage of convection will generally shift
southward through the afternoon, drying across the north. Greatest
coverage of showers and storms will be on a line from Melbourne
to Lake Kissimmee southward (~60 PoPs). Strong storms will be
capable of frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds, small hail,
and heavy rainfall. High temperatures will be around seasonal
values with L90s along and north of the I-4 corridor and U80s
southward.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Today-Tonight...Current observations at NOAA buoy 41009, 20 NM
east of Cape Canaveral, shows WSW winds at 10 kts with seas around
2 ft. Winds will back SSW this afternoon remaining around 10-12
kts. Seas will remain 2-3 ft. Offshore moving showers and
lightning storms will be possible this afternoon with locally
higher winds and seas in vicinity of any storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 920 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

VFR outside of convection. VCTS at all terminal this afternoon
with greatest coverage from MLB southward. Coverage will generally
dry from N to S, dissipating across the Treasure Coast terminals
around sunset. WSW winds will increase to around 10 kts. Locally
higher gusts possible at terminals from MLB south.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 920 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The river level at Astor on the Saint Johns River has remained
below Minor Flood stage and will continue a slow decline through
Action Stage through tonight. River levels should then fall below
Action Stage by late week, unless additional heavy rainfall
occurs.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  70  89  70 /  40  10  60  40
MCO  88  72  92  73 /  50  10  60  30
MLB  89  72  90  73 /  60  20  60  30
VRB  90  71  91  71 /  60  20  50  30
LEE  90  71  92  71 /  40  10  60  20
SFB  90  72  93  72 /  40  10  70  30
ORL  90  73  93  73 /  50  10  60  30
FPR  88  72  90  72 /  60  20  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Law/Pendergrast