Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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284
FXUS62 KMLB 210805
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
405 AM EDT Sat Sep 21 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Current...Much drier air is in place since this time yesterday.
Satellite-derived precipitable water (PW) depicts values anywhere
from 0.8" to 1.0" across the area except slightly higher toward the
Treasure Coast.  The evening sounding from Cape Canaveral showed a
shallower layer of low-level moisture with the subsidence inversion
noted just above 6500 ft...compared to about 10000 ft from
yesterday`s 15Z sounding.

Today-tonight...Similar synoptic pattern remains with the surface
high pressure still residing over coastal North Carolina and the
upper-level ridge encompassing the eastern CONUS.  The difference
between today and Friday as previously mentioned is the amount of
low-level moisture.  MOS guidance has trended much drier, and high-
resolution models are sparse with rain chances over the next 24
hours. Also, forecast soundings are showing the subsidence inversion
further lowering through today. Despite the seemingly unfavorable
environment, isolated light showers/sprinkles are still developing
over the Atlantic and moving onshore.  And based on this, will
maintain a slight chance of light showers for the coastal counties
and as far inland as Orlando.  Martin and St. Lucie counties may see
a higher shower chance where there is more moisture to work with.

Otherwise, the tight pressure gradient will produce breezy onshore
conditions once again along the coast this morning and then also
farther inland by late morning.  Winds do not appear quite strong
enough to warrant a Lake Wind Advisory at this time but still expect
to see wind gusts to around 25 mph. High temps mid 80s coast and mid-
upper 80s inland.

Mostly dry conditions continue this evening and tonight but again
will carry a slight chance of light showers/sprinkles for Martin and
St. Lucie county. Overnight lows upper 60/near 70 inland and low-mid
70s along the coast.

Sunday-Tue...A notable area of high pressure anchored over the SE
states GA will remain in place with rain chances out of the
picture. Continuing onshore winds will keep temps near to a few
degrees below their seasonal norms, ranging from the mid 80s along
the coast and mid-upper 80s inland with mostly clear skies.

Extended...Dominant ridge over the SE will amplify northward
across the Gulf region and further into the Mid Atlc region the
latter half of the week. A gentle onshore flow will keep
temperatures restricted, especially near the coast with rain chcs
in the absence of any notable moisture return remaining to silent
to very low chcs through the middle of next week. Some small rain
chcs will begin to develop around Fri into Sat as moisture creeps
back into the area underneath the ridge in developing SE flow.
Expect highs in the U80s to L90s with lows in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
Breezy E/ENE winds with VFR conditions prevailing.  Isolated light
showers expected to develop over the Atlantic and move onshore
through today but are not expected to cause any restrictions at
this time.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-tonight...Hazardous conditions continue over the Atlantic with
winds of 15-20 knots north of Cape Canaveral and around 20 knots to
the south.  Combined seas will be 9 to 11 feet offshore and near the
Gulf Stream and 8 to 10 feet nearshore.  Seas remain hazardous
tonight but may subside by a foot or so.  A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect.

Sunday...Anticipated decay rate of swell from Atlc suggests
Advisory headlines should be trimmed over a portion of the waters
at some point during the day. Navigation near inlets will remain a
concern due to primary swell component to wave height.

Extended...WV heights begin to slip to 6 ft or less during Mon and
if forecast holds all headlines should finally be lowered
incrementally over the waters early in the work week. Decaying
swell should continue to make up the primary wave component into
at least Wed of next week. High pressure as dominant feature
locally will bring favorable conditions for the area due to rather
light winds Tue-Thu.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St Johns River at
Astor. River levels on the St Johns River are forecast to slowly
decline, but still remain in Minor Flood Stage near Astor over
the next several days. The St Johns River above Lake Harney
remains at Action Stage. River levels are forecast to slowly
decline over the next several days, falling below Action Stage
this weekend near Lake Harney.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  85  73  83  68 /  20   0   0   0
MCO  87  70  86  68 /  20   0  10   0
MLB  86  77  84  72 /  20   0  10  10
VRB  87  75  83  68 /  20  10  10  10
LEE  88  70  89  69 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  86  71  86  68 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  87  71  87  69 /  20   0  10   0
FPR  87  76  84  69 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for Coastal
     Volusia-Indian River-Martin-Northern Brevard-Southern
     Brevard-St. Lucie.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20
     nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Combs
LONG TERM....Pendergrast



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