Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 061838
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
239 PM EDT Thu May 6 2021

.DISCUSSION...

...Scattered Lightning Storms Developing This Afternoon; Isolated
Severe Possible...

Current-Tonight...Late morning, early afternoon start to convection
developing over the west central FL peninsula and moving rapidly
into central FL. Activity will traverse the peninsula and adjacent
local coastal waters presenting issues for mariners.

USAF 915 MHZ Cape wind profilers continue to show fairly deep
westerly flow. The ECSB will either be pinned along the coast or
only will make minimal inland progression this afternoon due to the
westerly flow aloft.

The 15Z KXMR sounding came in with a PWAT of 1.56 inches and a cool
500 mb temp of -9.0C. A frontal boundary is still forecast to press
southward into the central FL peninsula during the afternoon and
early evening. It will be preceded by SCT-NMRS showers and lightning
storms, especially across the eastern peninsula as the WCSB races
toward the east coast.

Sufficient parameters remain in place for a few strong/potentially
severe storms across ECFL, especially nearer the coast when activity
interacts with the ECSB, which will promote an increase in coverage
and intensity. Convection will continue to push east, or even
southeast propagating along outflow boundaries and eventually off of
the coast and across the local intracoastal/coastal waters. The best
chance for strong/isolated severe storms will between 3 pm and 7 pm.
One or two storms will be capable of damaging winds near 60 mph and
large hail. The SPC has kept for today the eastern peninsula in a
Marginal Risk for Severe Storms. Interactions with inland lake
breezes will also pose a risk for strong storms over the interior as
well. Frequent lightning strikes and localized heavy rainfall will
also be threats from showers and storms today. An isolated, short-
lived, tornado cannot be ruled out.

The storms will push offshore early this evening and the frontal
boundary will push south of Lake Okeechobee by sunrise Fri. Cooler
and drier air will gradually filter into the area behind the front
late, allowing min temps to fall back into the M-U60s most of the
area, except L60s for portions of north Lake/inland Volusia
counties, which is very close to seasonal norms for early May.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion...

Friday-Sunday...The mid/upper level trough will move downstream of
east-central Florida as it follows the frontal boundary out of the
region. A slight chance for isolated showers will exist across the
Treasure Coast and areas near Lake Okeechobee with lingering
moisture possible behind the front through the morning hours. High
pressure will build in behind the front with cooler temperatures
expected as winds veer to the north-northwest areawide. Highs will
top out closer to normal with temperatures forecast to reach the mid-
to-upper 80s with mostly sunny skies and dry conditions. Lows will
reach the mid 50s to mid 60s overnight. The dry air will stick
around through the weekend across most of the County Warning Area
with high pressure parked over northern Florida and the associated
weak ridge over eastern CONUS. The warming trend will begin on
Sunday as winds switch from the south-southeast with the surface
high expected to move downstream of Florida; this means slightly
warmer highs can be expected on Sunday with temperatures in the
upper 80s to low 90s. Lows will also trend warmer with temperatures
in the 60s to low 70s overnight.

Sunday-Wednesday...Moisture will increase through Tuesday as
southeast flow continues with the surface ridge axis draping over
Florida. The return of significant moisture and WAA, will interact
with the seabreeze to create isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms daily mainly Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures
will warm up a bit heading into early next week, with highs in the
upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s Sunday
through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Onshore winds at the immediate coast with sea breeze
formation, although inland progression of the ECSB will be difficult
with the deep WRLY flow as previously mentioned. SCT SHRA/TSRA will
develop across the coverage warning area increase in coverage and
intensity as they move east and interact with the sea breeze which
will be located just inland from the coast during the late aftn. A
few strong storms will be capable of wind gusts up to 50 knots,
mainly near the east coast. Winds this evening/overnight generally
SW/W/WNW at 5-10 kts. Drying on Fri with NW/N winds in upwards of 15
kts and some higher gusts.

&&

.MARINE...Current-Tonight...The ECSB will be pinned along/near the
coast this afternoon due to stronger WRLY flow aloft. An early start
to showers/storms which will push off the coast all afternoon into
early evening. While winds over the open waters are forecast to
become a southerly component, any shower/storm development (pushing
off coast) will distort the local wind field (variability). Even
with 1-2 ft seas, both winds/seas locally higher invof of storms
later today/tonight.

Some of the storms will be strong, containing wind gusts up to 50
knots and possibly hail or isolated waterspout. The stronger storms
should clear the Treasure Coast by sunset or shortly thereafter. A
frontal boundary will push across the local Atlc waters late tonight
with winds becoming NW around 14-17 knots late in the night and
towards daybreak. This will build seas 3-4 feet offshore (Cape
northward).

Previous Marine Extended Forecast Discussion...

Friday-Monday... Winds will shift from the northwest Friday and
northeast by Friday evening through Saturday as high pressure builds
into Florida. Onshore flow will return by Saturday afternoon as the
high pressure ridge moves east into the Atlantic. Southeasterly flow
will be moderate Saturday night up to 15 knots and persist into
early next week with waves reaching 3-5ft in the offshore waters.
Winds will increase from the southeast at around 14-18kts on Monday
with waves of 2-4ft expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Fri...Minimum RH values reaching as low as 25-30pct,
northerly winds in upwards of 15 mph with some higher afternoon
gusts, and relatively high ERC values, will make for a fire weather
sensitive day across east-central Florida behind a cold front.

Sat...NERLY winds near 10 mph with min RH values 25-30pct NW of I-4
and 30-40pct Volusia coast and inland from the Space/Treasure
coasts. Continued fire sensitivity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  64  84  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
MCO  68  85  59  84 /  20   0   0   0
MLB  68  84  62  82 /  30  10   0   0
VRB  68  85  61  83 /  40  10   0   0
LEE  66  84  57  84 /  10   0   0   0
SFB  66  85  58  83 /  20   0   0   0
ORL  69  86  61  85 /  20   0   0   0
FPR  67  86  61  83 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Sedlock
LONG TERM/RADAR....Weitlich
AVIATION...Sedlock
DATAC/BLOG...Haley


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