Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 112056
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
356 PM EST Tue Dec 11 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Cold Again Tonight with Patchy to Areas of Frost Developing
Across the Region Late...

Tonight-Wed...Dry airmass in place and high pressure building into
the region from the west will produce light winds and clear skies
into tonight. This will lead to another cold night with
temperatures in the 50s late this afternoon dropping rapidly into
the 40s after sunset and through the evening hours. For lows,
leaned toward the cooler MET guidance, and even shaved a degree
or two off these values as MOS can be a tad high for nights like
tonight when favorable radiational cooling conditions are in
place. This keeps min temps ranging from the mid to upper 30s over
much of the area late tonight, with frost formation expected.
Areas of frost should develop away from the coast, especially
over more rural low lying interior locations west of I-95. While
for urbanized inland spots, and places along the coast, frost will
be more patchy. Have therefore issued a Frost Advisory for the
interior counties and inland Volusia County where greater coverage
of frost is expected.

After a chilly start to Wednesday, temperatures should warm up
into the mid to upper 60s across much of the area, expect around
70 degrees along the Treasure Coast. These values will still be
lower than normal for this time of year, but it will be warmer
than the past couple days. A relatively light onshore flow will
begin to modify the dry airmass in place, but rain chances will
remain out of the forecast with just a slight increase in cloud
cover across areas southeast of Orlando into the afternoon.

Wed night/Thu (prev)...A weak coastal trough is forecast to develop
overnight Wed night along the FL Straits with feature responsible
for some lower cloudiness and increasing coastal/marine shower
chances into Thu. Moisture is showing a marked increase areawide
during Thu as an upstream disturbance begins to approach the region,
coupled with return flow around departing high pressure. Will keep a
sct chance of showers areawide to account for this activity and
lower range measured amounts possible.

Extended (previous)...Next significant system approaches the region
late week as a strong shortwave moving across the great plains is
shown closing off as developing low pressure over the lower MS
valley Fri, and transits toward the SE states at presently varying
speeds into Fri night. Given model spread in onset of impact ranging
from Fri to Fri night, storms will be carried for the local area
during at least two periods Fri/Fri night with an appreciable warm
sector and strong wind fields accompanying approach of this rather
potent feature. It is anticipated consensus in guidance later this
week will allow for better refinements on expected timing and
impacts from expected storms. Cooler and dryer conditions will
follow passage of the system this weekend and into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Scattered stratocu deck clearing out north of KMLB
this afternoon leading to VFR conditions this evening and
overnight. Breezy NW winds decreasing after sunset, becoming
light and variable.


&&

.MARINE...

Tonight-Wed...Poor to hazardous boating conditions will continue
through at least Wednesday morning. North-northwest winds up to
15-20 knots will decrease to 10-15 knots into tonight, but seas
will remain elevated over the Gulf Stream waters. Have therefore
kept SCA continuing for offshore waters and nearshore, south of
Sebastian Inlet through this evening, transitioning to a SCA for
hazardous seas late in the evening and continuing through early
Wednesday. Nearshore north of Sebastian Inlet, small craft should
continue to exercise caution for seas up to 6 feet.

Thu...SE winds will increase to 15-20 knots offshore by afternoon
with SCEC conditions developing across all the waters into Thu
evening.

Fri-Fri Night...SE/S winds Friday will increase to near 20 knots
with Advisory conditions developing across the waters as a cold
front approaches from the west. Expect a high coverage of showers
and scattered storms to precede the frontal passage with strong
storms possible.

Sat-Sun...The front will push offshore into Saturday afternoon with
surface winds veering the west behind the front to 15-20 knots
offshore. Seas to 6-7 ft offshore Saturday will decrease to 4 to 6
ft offshore by Sunday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  37  65  49  73 /   0   0   0  40
MCO  39  68  50  73 /   0   0   0  30
MLB  39  69  54  74 /   0   0  10  30
VRB  39  70  54  75 /   0   0  10  30
LEE  37  66  49  72 /   0   0   0  20
SFB  38  67  49  74 /   0   0   0  30
ORL  40  68  53  73 /   0   0   0  30
FPR  39  70  53  74 /   0   0  10  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Wednesday for Inland
     Volusia County-Northern Lake County-Okeechobee-Orange-
     Osceola-Seminole-Southern Lake County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for Flagler
     Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian
     Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter
     Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian
     Inlet 20-60 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas from 10 PM this evening
     to 10 AM EST Wednesday for Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard
     County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20
     nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Volusia-
     Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Weitlich
MID-LONG TERM...Volkmer
AVIATION...Smith


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