Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210105

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
905 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019


Diurnal convection has concentrated over the west FL Peninsula this
evng...over east central FL it has all but burned itself except for
isold shras/tsras over west Okeechobee county. Latest RAP40
analysis shows the H100-H70 Bermuda Ridge axis bisecting the FL
Peninsula from E/NE to W/SW...generating 5-10KTS of S/SE flow acrs
the CWA. Low/mid lvl moisture is on the modest side with H100-H70
mean RH values btwn 70-75pct, H85-H50 avg dewpoint depressions btwn
5-7C. Dynamic support is weak with upstream mid lvl vort/omega
fields and upr lvl divergence fields largely flat...strong pockets
of these fields are noted over the west central and northeast
peninsula, but are assocd with lingering diurnal convection and will
diminish once these storms dissipate.

With the mean H100-H70 lyr as weak as it is, modest low lvl
moisture, and negligible mid/upr lvl support, tsras over land seem
too low to mention. The HRRR outperformed the 6KM WRF and it keeps
the CWA more or less dry. Update will limit areal precip to the
Treasure Coast, and only a slgt chc at that.


.AVIATION...Thru 22/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thu 21/04Z...E/SE 4-7KTS bcmg vrbl AOB 3KTS. Btwn 21/12Z-
21/15Z...bcmg S/SE 5-8KTS. Btwn 21/15Z-21/18Z...coastal sites bcmg
E/SE 8-12KTS. Btwn 21/18Z-21/21Z...KMCO/KSFB/KISM bcmg E/SE 6-
10KTS...KLEE bcmg W/SW 6-10KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Thru 21/12Z...E of KVRB-KOBE slgt chc MVFR shras.
Btwn 21/12Z-21/16Z...coastal sites slgt chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras.
Aft 21/16Z...chc MVFR shras/IFR tsras all sites.


Favorable boating conds overnight as the lcl Atlc remains directly
under the Bermuda Ridge axis.  Light to gentle SErly breeze with
seas AOB 2FT. Scattered showers/isold tstms south of the Cape.





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