Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 220757
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
257 AM EST Fri Feb 22 2019

...Well Above Normal Temperatures Will Continue Into This Weekend
With More Records Possible...

.DISCUSSION...
Today...Like a broken record, the forecast remains essentially
unchanged from 24 hours ago as an unusually strong ridge remains
centered east of the area. The presence of the ridge will keep
conditions very stable aloft, while just enough moisture lingers
at the surface to keep an isolated shower or two on the table.
Will confine slight chances to the Treasure Coast this morning
and northwest of I-4 from mid to late afternoon. Deep layer
southerly flow will promote temperatures about 10-15 degrees above
late February climatology, with near-record highs possible again,
particularly away from the coast.

Tonight...A pocket of higher moisture rounding the western flank
of the ridge is expected to move into the area from the Bahamas
overnight. Have maintained 20-30% PoPs over the Treasure Coast
waters and adjacent land areas. Another unusually warm night with
overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s most areas, closer to 70
along the coast south of the Cape.

Sat-Sun...Deep layer ridging over the western Atlc centered just
east of the Bahamas will gradually break down through the period
as SWRLY flow aloft becomes more zonal. At the surface, SERLY
winds on Sat will veer SWRLY on Sun with the approach of a cold
front which will traverse the peninsula late on Sun. Winds become
NWRLY post-frontal. Surface high pressure will build back toward
the area Sun overnight. PWATs surge to upwards of 1.50 inches by
Sat afternoon. We will likely see a sea breeze collision over the
central peninsula late in the day. Will continue to hold onto a
low-end chance (30pct) PoPs on Sat and 40-50pct Sat evening I-4
northward due to the moisture surge/mesoscale boundary collisions.
Models show moisture is squeezed out by Sun with generally a
20pct chance or less areawide for precip. Some patchy fog not out
of the question for Sun morning.

Both high/low temperatures will remain well above climo with maxes
in the 80s both days and lows in the 60s, except M-U50s Sun
overnight into Mon morning north of I-4, post-frontal.

Mon-Thu...Confidence lower through this period with medium range
models rather unsettled and poor consistency. Near zonal flow
through the period with occasional impulses embedded within the flow
traversing the FL peninsula from time to time Tue-Thu. The previous
frontal boundary lies across the southern peninsula early in the
period as high pressure builds in but is quickly pushed into the
western Atlc by Tue evening. The old frontal boundary is forecast to
return northward Tue overnight into Wed as a warm front as winds
veer SERLY. Deep layer moisture return ramps up slowly Tue overnight
into Thu ahead of a rather unorganized system/upper disturbance that
will force its way across the area Wed-Thu.

We keep conditions mainly dry Mon with a small threat of light
precip returning Mon overnight, but mainly south. Tue-Tue night,
SCHC-CHC shot at showery precip and still higher PoPs probably
southward. Wed should be higher on PoPs with some deeper moisture,
warm front, and sea breeze interactions late in the day and have
gone with 40pct here. Mainly 30pct again on Thu.

A brief cooling spell behind the latest front, but need to be
cautions as current medium range models suggest mainly 70s for highs
during this period, but may see a bit bump upward for Wed-Thu when
it all plays out. Mins generally a few to several degrees above
climo.

&&

.AVIATION...
Ground fog is possible this morning where skies have cleared, i.e.
the Treasure Coast from KMLB-KSUA. Backed off on fog potential
elsewhere, ISM-MCO-SFB-DAB-LEE, where low clouds (BKN040-BKN060)
are holding on longer than expected.

Otherwise, generally VFR today with continued SE flow.

&&

.MARINE...
Today-Tonight...High pressure centered east of the Bahamas will
maintain a S/SE breeze at or below 10 knots today and 10-15 knots
tonight. Seas 2-3 feet near the coast and up to 4 feet offshore.
An uptick in showers (no thunder) is expected tonight over the
Treasure Coast waters as a pocket of higher moisture moves in
from the Bahamas.

Sat-Sun...SE flow Sat becomes more southerly Sat overnight and SW on
Sun ahead of an approaching front that will move through Sun night
and winds continuing to veer to the north. Speeds generally AOB 15
kts, except Sun night after midnight, speeds may increase to 15-20
kts behind the front north of Sebastian Inlet over the open Atlc.
ISOLD to WDLY SCT showers forecast. Seas generally 3-4 feet, up to 5
feet well offshore (north of Sebastian Inlet).

Mon-Tue...The previous front settles across the southern peninsula
where it is expected to remain until a potential return northward as
a warm front Tue overnight. Winds continue to veer to NE-E during
the day Mon, then finally a bit more ESE/SE Tue night. Wind speeds
15-20 kts over the Gulf Stream Mon. The pgrad does relax Mon night
into Tue with winds diminishing. Seas will build to 5-7 ft with a
combo of SCEC/SCA necessary for much of this time for the poor to
hazardous conditions for small craft. Generally ISOLD showers.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs and warm mins for the next several days.

       FRI FEB 22        SAT FEB 23        SUN FEB 24
     HI-MAX  HI-MIN    HI-MAX  HI-MIN    HI-MAX HI-MIN
DAB  87 1962 69 2008   87 2013 69 2013   88 2012 68 1962
MCO  88 2003 69 1945   89 2013 69 2013   90 1962 68 1962
SFB  88 2003 68 2008   88 2013 70 2013   89 2012 70 1962
MLB  88 2003 74 2018   90 1961 72 2018   92 1962 72 2018
VRB  89 2003 73 1961   89 2008 73 1961   89 2012 71 2018
FPR  89 2003 73 1961   89 2932 71 1979   90 2012 70 1949


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  83  65  83  68 /  20  10  30  40
MCO  87  67  87  69 /  10  10  30  40
MLB  84  70  84  70 /  10  20  30  20
VRB  85  68  84  70 /  20  20  30  10
LEE  87  67  88  69 /  20  10  30  40
SFB  86  66  86  69 /  10  10  30  40
ORL  87  68  86  69 /  10  10  30  40
FPR  85  67  83  68 /  20  20  30  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Ulrich/Sedlock


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