Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 161413
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1013 AM EDT Mon May 16 2022

.UPDATE...
A drier airmass exists across much of the area today, with morning
soundings at TBW/XMR coming in with PW values a little over an
inch. However, model guidance does indicate slightly greater
moisture across Okeechobee, St. Lucie and Martin counties, where
greatest chance for showers and storms will exist this afternoon.
Rain chances across these counties range from 30-40 percent, while
farther north PoPs will be around 20 percent. Showers and storms
will form along the inland moving east coast sea breeze, which
should be slightly slower to develop due to a weak offshore wind
flow in the lower levels. An approaching mid-level trough,
combined with cold temps and drier air aloft, may again support
isolated stronger storms today, producing frequent lighting, hail
and strong wind gusts.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR. Lower rain chances today, with best
potential for showers and storms near to south of KVRB into the
afternoon. Tempo IFR/MVFR conditions will occur with any of this
activity, with isolated stronger storms possible.

&&

.MARINE...(Previous Discussion) Atlc ridge axis will retreat
south and east resulting in a SW wind flow turning E/SE this
afternoon and evening increasing near 15 knots. Winds will return
to the synoptically supported W/SW flow overnight. Combination of
wind waves and an east swell will produce seas 2-3 FT with up to 4
FT offshore. Best chance for offshore moving storms will be south
of Sebastian Inlet this aftn. A few storms could be strong
containing gusty winds.

Astronomical high tides will produce above normal water levels
near high tide this evening and Tuesday evening. This may cause
minor inundation of low lying properties near inlets, nearby areas
along the Intracoastal Waterway, and adjacent canals.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Saint Johns River at Astor will remain near Action Stage of
2.0 feet early this week, and then is forecast to gradually
decrease below Action Stage from mid-late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  89  68  90  70 /  10   0  20  20
MCO  92  69  94  72 /  20  10  30  20
MLB  89  67  89  70 /  20   0  20  10
VRB  90  65  90  68 /  20  10  10   0
LEE  89  70  92  72 /  20  10  30  20
SFB  91  69  93  71 /  20   0  30  20
ORL  93  71  95  74 /  20  10  30  20
FPR  90  66  90  68 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT Tuesday night for
     Coastal Indian River-Coastal Martin-Coastal Saint Lucie-
     Coastal Volusia-Mainland Northern Brevard-Mainland Southern
     Brevard-Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Southern Brevard
     Barrier Islands.

AM...None.
&&

$$

Weitlich/Sedlock


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