717
FXUS62 KMLB 130523
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
123 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFs)
Issued at 123 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

KMLB WSR-88D remains relatively quiet early this morning. Have
taken out prevailing "VCSH" wording for now and have concentrated
more on MVFR CIGs/ISOLD IFR around ECFL. Expect a gradual lifting
of MVFR CIGs in favor of VFR from mid-morning onward. CAMs seem to
favor more aftn/evening convection today, than previous day
(morning convection south) but will stay vigilant. Have added some
aftn/early evening TEMPO groups.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

A fairly quiet evening across east central Florida, in contrast to
what was a busy morning. An EF-1 tornado has been confirmed to
have caused the damage reported in Hobe Sound this morning by a
NWS Melbourne survey team. More information on this event can be
found in the latest Public Information Statement or on social
media.

Limited showers are present on radar as of around 930pm this
evening, though Invest 90L remains over the local area near the
northeast I-4 corridor. The low is forecast to move offshore into
the western Atlantic overnight, as the stationary front over north
Florida sags farther southward. CAMs are not enthused with too
much in the way of shower chances overnight, though a few showers
and storms will remain possible, especially across the south.
Thus, have reduced PoPs overnight, mainly north of the I-4
corridor. Areas in Martin County could see multiple rounds of
showers again towards daybreak. Additional amounts of 1-2" in
training cells could lead to flooding concerns. Overnight lows
tonight in the lower to mid-70s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Jun 12 2024

Tonight...Broad low, designated Invest 90L, across the I-4
corridor will shift east-northeast and offshore of the coast
tonight. Poor boating conditions will continue offshore of
Brevard County and the Treasure Coast waters tonight as south to
southwest winds are forecast to remain up to 15 to 20 knots. Seas
are forecast to build slightly to 2-4 feet nearshore and up to 3-5
feet offshore. Shower and storm chances will remain high into this
evening, with potentially some decreasing coverage near to past
midnight. However, there will still be a lingering chance for
offshore moving showers and storms, some which could be gusty,
mainly south of the Cape late tonight and toward daybreak
Thursday.

Thursday-Sunday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Invest 90L departs
to the northeast, dropping the stationary front south across the
waters in its wake. Winds generally S-SW up to 10-15 kts south of
this boundary into Thursday, decreasing to 5-10 knots into Friday.
North of the boundary, mainly across the Volusia County waters,
winds become northerly 5-10 knots. Light offshore flow on Saturday
morning becomes S/SE by the afternoon and then becomes easterly into
Sunday as high pressure builds off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Wind
speeds remain less than 15 knots. Seas 2-4 feet on Thursday fall to
1-3 ft Friday and into the weekend. High moisture and the frontal
boundary will continue high rain and storm chances through at least
late week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  91  73  90  73 /  80  50  80  20
MCO  90  74  89  75 /  90  50  80  30
MLB  90  73  89  74 /  80  50  90  40
VRB  90  72  89  72 /  90  60  90  50
LEE  92  75  93  76 /  80  60  80  20
SFB  91  74  92  74 /  80  50  80  30
ORL  91  75  91  75 /  90  50  80  30
FPR  89  71  88  72 /  90  60  90  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Leahy
AVIATION...Sedlock