435
FXUS62 KMLB 200132
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New UPDATE, MARINE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE... (Through Thursday Evening)
Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024


-------------------------KEY MESSAGES---------------------------

-Scattered showers and isolated lightning storms are expected
 tonight through early Thursday. Breezy at times along the coast.

-Weak low pressure has formed northeast of the Bahamas. It has a
 low (30%) chance of tropical development before reaching North
 Florida early on Friday. Additional bands of breezy to windy
 showers and isolated storms will accompany this feature late
 Thursday into Friday morning.

-Hazardous beach and boating conditions persist due to wind-driven
 seas and surf. The risk of deadly rip currents remains high.

----------------------------------------------------------------

On this last evening of spring, Florida continues to reside south
of a sprawling heat dome, with near-record H5 heights approaching
600 dam over the Mid-Atlantic. A parade of low-amplitude
disturbances continue to trek through here in the deep easterly
fetch that extends from the subtropical Atlantic across the
Sunshine State. We caught a short break in the showers over much
of the area early this evening, but that is quickly coming to an
end as the next weak feature is rippling through the flow.
Embedded in a ribbon of higher 1-3 km RH, scattered showers are
pushing onshore, and this will be the trend through the night.
Lightning will be uncommon, but there remains a 20% chance of
storms. Lows will fall toward the mid 70s, except upper 70s along
the US-1 corridor where breezes will stay elevated.

Behind tonight`s disturbance, a tail of moisture is forecast to
slowly meander from the Treasure Coast into SoFlo on Thursday
morning, keeping a few showers in the forecast for those spots.
However, a batch of drier air and subsidence is evident in water
vapor imagery just behind this feature, so the remainder of East
Central Florida should get a lull (rain chances drop to 20-30%)
through the morning and even much of the afternoon. We`ll stay
breezy with highs in the mid/upper 80s.

Attention then turns to a somewhat healthier feature (Invest 92L)
in the SW Atlantic, currently about 500 miles to our east.
Infrared satellite imagery and NHC analysis indicate weak low
pressure has formed. There remains a low chance (30%) for tropical
development as it approaches North Florida over the next 24
hours. Its biggest impediment appears to be dry air that is
wrapped around its southwestern flank. Meanwhile, deeper moisture
(PW`s >2.3") resides over its northern semicircle.

Once it gets to the coast, areas near and north of the track of
the surface low/trough will have the highest potential to
experience a period of increased showers and enhanced wind gusts
(30-40 mph) late Thursday into early Friday. Tracking such a weak
feature is difficult, but guidance brings it close to or just
north of Volusia County on approach tomorrow evening. While the
relatively stronger onshore winds still appear to affect locations
immediately north of the district, we will continue to monitor
its progress and tweak the forecast as needed. Bottom line,
another stretch of breezy, wet weather will likely affect areas
especially north of Cape Canaveral as it passes by.

As noted in the Key Messages, beach and boating conditions remain
hazardous through at least early Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Overnight...Another weather disturbance will bring scattered to
numerous showers and a 20% chance of lightning storms. The bigger
concern remains fresh easterly winds around 20 KT with gusts to
25 KT. This is driving rough seas of 6-9 FT. A Small Craft
Advisory is effect for the entire local Atlantic.

Thursday-Sunday (previous discussion)...Hazardous boating
conditions continue through at least late Thursday night with seas
7-9 ft Thursday possibly approaching 10 ft offshore. Breezy ENE
winds up to 15-20 kts will linger, though slightly lower than
Wednesday. Improving boating conditions will end the work week and
continue into the weekend, as winds and seas diminish. Lingering
seas 4-5 ft Friday afternoon will become 2-3ft by Sunday.
Increasingly southeasterly winds are forecast at 10-15 kts. Daily
shower and thunderstorm chances continue, capable of producing
locally higher wind gusts and seas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 932 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

IMPACTS:
-Occasional MVFR CIGs/VIS in quick-moving showers.
-Gusty easterly breezes, locally exceeding 25 KT.

Persistence is the name of the game as we await the next weak
disturbance in the deep easterly flow off the Atlantic. This
provides an increase in shower coverage late this evening through
early Thursday morning, with a diminishing trend between
20/10-13Z. The chance of lightning is around 20% tonight. VFR
will dominate outside of showers, though a few intervals of MVFR
CIGs are occurring along the coast. East winds will remain gusty
at times.


At the tail end or just beyond these TAFs, a stronger piece of
energy approaches the NE coast of Florida tomorrow evening. With
it, the potential increases for another period of showers and
reduced CIGs, particularly for DAB/TIX/SFB.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... (Friday-Tuesday)
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Thursday-Friday...An area of showers and storms, associated with
a weak trough over the southwestern Atlantic, will work west-
northwest tomorrow into Friday. Higher PW surrounding this feature
will work across the northern portions of ECFL late tomorrow
afternoon and evening. With persistent onshore flow, scattered
rain showers and isolated lightning storms remain in the forecast.
30-50 PoP sufficiently covers these waves of moisture with
occasional breaks in activity. The QPF is highest generally near
and north of the Cape, reaching up to 1-1.50" through Saturday
morning. However, locally heavier rainfall could produce 1-2" in a
much quicker timeframe, especially where repeated rounds of rain
move over the same locations. Temperatures will continue to warm
each day, despite intermittent cloud cover. Highs in the mid to
upper 80s in most locations, up to 90 degrees inland, are forecast
for Thursday. Friday looks to be a couple to a few degrees warmer
areawide. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid to
upper 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...As the aforementioned trough washes
out over the eastern US, surface ridging is forecast to build
into the western Atlantic. The ridge axis will extend towards the
Florida peninsula, where it will linger into next week. Sufficient
moisture remains through the extended period, maintaining daily
shower and thunderstorm chances. The NBM continues to suggest very
high (likely) PoPs for this period, but continue to keep PoPs
around 50 percent or so. Onshore winds will veer progressively
southerly into next week, allowing for a more centralized sea
breeze collision, if not a collision over the eastern half of the
peninsula. So, will need to monitor to see if higher PoPs would be
justified and where. Little relief from building temperatures,
with highs reaching the mid 90s over the interior by late weekend
with lingering muggy conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  86  75  90 /  60  50  60  40
MCO  75  88  74  92 /  40  30  30  30
MLB  77  87  75  90 /  50  30  30  30
VRB  76  87  74  90 /  40  40  30  40
LEE  76  90  75  94 /  30  30  20  40
SFB  74  88  74  92 /  60  40  40  30
ORL  75  88  75  93 /  40  30  30  30
FPR  76  87  73  90 /  40  40  20  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Heil
AVIATION...Heil
DECISION SUPPORT...Sedlock