114
FXUS62 KMLB 191152
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
752 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFs)
Issued at 750 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Onshore moving showers this morning. MVFR/IFR CIGs with passing
SHRA and occasional TSRA. Have added MVFR CIGs until 14Z from MLB
northward and across interior sites. Maintained VCTS across all
sites today. Windy onshore flow with 15-20 KT and gusts 25-30 KT.
Additional TSRA will be possible this afternoon but confidence
and coverage is too uncertain to add VCTS in TAFs at this time.
Winds decrease slightly overnight 10-12 KT across interior, with
10-15 KT and gusts 20-25 KT across the coastal sites. Kept VCSH
across coastal sites tonight, but took VCSH out briefly overnight
across the interior.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Current-Tonight...The local area will remain sandwiched between
mid-level ridging over the Northeast US and a trough over the
southwestern Atlantic today. Scattered showers drifting onshore
prior to sunrise this morning will persist through the day and
linger into tonight (PoPs 40-60%), with onshore flow maintaining
higher PWATs to around 1.8-2". The pressure gradient between the
aforementioned two features has led to breezy conditions,
especially along the coast, overnight. Breezy to windy conditions
will continue through the day today, with winds up to 20-25mph and
gusts up to 30-35mph. The highest winds look to be this
afternoon. Despite higher PWATs, drier air lingers in the mid and
upper levels, which should limit the overall thunder threat today.
However, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, especially this
afternoon, with forecast MUCAPE values approaching 1500-2000J/kg
over southern areas. Some lower cloud cover is forecast today,
which should help temperatures to creep up into the upper 80s this
afternoon. A few locations in the far interior could approach 90
degrees.

Tonight, shower chances will continue, especially along the coast,
with PoPs up to 30-60%. A few thunderstorms will remain possible,
though confidence on any occurring is low. Breezy onshore flow
will once again persist overnight, with winds 15-20mph along the
coast and gusts to around 25mph. Overnight lows are forecast in
the lower to mid-70s over the interior, while coastal areas remain
in the upper 70s.

Dangerous beach conditions are expected today due to a High Risk
of life-threatening rip currents. In addition, high surf with
breaking waves 5-8ft will lead to very rough conditions.
Beachgoers should remain out of the water.

Thursday-Friday...A trough, which NHC continues to monitor,
maintaining a 20% chance of tropical formation as of the latest
update, will approach the Southeast US coast on Thursday, then
move onshore into Friday. Models continue to disagree on the exact
location and timing of this feature moving onshore. However, they
generally agree that it will be somewhere over north
Florida/southern Georgia. Fortunately, models continue to support
little in the way of development, keeping the feature as an open
wave. Regardless of the final outcome, the local area is forecast
to have another day of breezy onshore flow Thursday, before winds
subside and back southeasterly on Friday. Showers and a few storms
are forecast to continue through the period, with PoPs 40-60%
Thursday and around 50% on Friday. While some areas will see
multiple rounds of activity, overall rainfall totals are forecast
to remain under 1".

Temperatures will continue a warming trend through late week. High
temperatures Thursday are forecast to reach the upper 80s to lower
90s, then become lower 90s area-wide Friday. With humidity values
remaining high, the Heat Risk will build each day. Overnight low
temperatures will continue to be in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday...As the trough washes out over the eastern US,
surface ridging is forecast to build into the western Atlantic.
The ridge axis will extend towards the Florida peninsula, where it
will linger into mid-week next week. Available moisture will
remain high through the period, maintaining daily shower and
thunderstorm chances. The NBM continues to suggest very high
(likely) PoPs for this period. But, have capped PoPs at around 50%
for the time being. However, onshore winds will veer progressively
southerly into next week, allowing for a more centralized sea
breeze collision, if not a collision over the eastern half of the
peninsula. So, will need to monitor to see if higher PoPs would be
justified and where. Little relief from building temperatures,
with highs reaching the mid-90s over the interior by late weekend
and lingering muggy conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Today-Tonight...Buoy observations overnight tonight have shown
seas up to around 9ft off of Ponce Inlet and just outside the
nearshore Brevard zone. Have updated the forecast to include this,
though models suggest seas diminishing slightly into this
afternoon to around 6-7ft. Given that most models have not
initialized correctly to account for the occurring 9ft seas, will
need to monitor to see is this is true. Nonetheless, hazardous
boating conditions will persist, with onshore winds 20-25kts and
gusts to around 30kts. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for
the local Atlantic waters. Seas are forecast to build to 7-9ft
tonight and could approach 10ft offshore by daybreak Thursday.
Scattered showers will continue to drift onshore through tonight,
with a few thunderstorms possible.

Thursday-Sunday...Hazardous boating conditions will persist
through late week, with seas 7-9ft Thursday possibly approaching
10ft offshore. Breezy ENE winds up to 15-20kts will linger, though
will be lower than Wednesday. The Small Craft Advisories have
been extended through Thursday night. Improving boating conditions
to end the work week and will continue into this weekend, as winds
and seas diminish. Lingering seas 4-5ft Friday afternoon will
become 2-3ft by Sunday. Increasingly southeasterly winds are
forecast at 10-15kts. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances will
continue, however.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  87  76  87  76 /  40  60  50  50
MCO  88  76  88  75 /  50  40  50  20
MLB  87  77  87  76 /  60  60  60  30
VRB  88  76  87  76 /  60  50  60  30
LEE  90  76  91  76 /  40  30  40  20
SFB  88  75  88  75 /  50  40  50  30
ORL  88  76  88  76 /  50  40  50  30
FPR  87  76  87  75 /  60  50  60  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for FLZ141-154-159-
     164-347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Leahy
AVIATION...Watson