982
FXUS62 KMLB 311841
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
241 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

...Below Normal Rain Chances Continue; Shower and Isolated Storm
Chances Mainly Focused along the Treasure Coast this Weekend...

...Deteriorating Boating Conditions as Onshore Winds Increase...

Current-Tonight...The stout onshore flow has allowed for a diffuse
sea breeze to develop and push rapidly inland this afternoon. In
turn, this will provide small relief from the heat of recent days,
though we will still realized M-U80s at the coast and 90-93F into
the interior. The NE/ENE surface winds have picked up to 15-20 mph
with frequent gusts to 25 mph and occasional gusts to 30 mph
expected. This as the pgrad tightens with lower pressure southward
and high pressure building towards the mid Atlc/southeast U.S. The
main convective threat will lie across the western FL peninsula, but
we will see if any ISOLD activity can make it back to the east side
of the Kissimmee River before dissipating this evening. PoPs only
around 20pct here. The onshore flow will gradually diminish thru mid-
evening. Overnight lows in the U60s to L70s, with M-U70s within play
across the barrier islands.

Previous Extended Forecast Discussion Modified...

For the weekend, high pressure will push SE and off the Carolina
coast Sat then push seaward Sun with a trailing ridge axis extending
westward across north FL. The wind flow will veer Easterly and
remain quite breezy/gusty on Sat, even windy at the coast 15-25 mph
with higher gusts. On Sun, the pressure gradient eases as the high
moves away and its ridge axis settles closer to the area so not
quite as breezy. While a mostly dry airmass will remain in place,
there should be enough moisture across southern sections to produce
isolated to scattered showers (20-30%) moving onshore the Treasure
coast. Models are trying to hint at a little moisture even pushing
further northwestward on Sun, but remain skeptical. Max temps will
be very close to seasonable with mid to upper 80s coast and lower
90s inland. But the persistent onshore flow will produce smaller
diurnal temp ranges along the coast, keeping min temps there in the
mid 70s, possibly upper 70s. Next week, the dry airmass will
gradually modify with rain/storm chances slowly increasing 20-40
percent Mon, 30-40 percent Tue-Thu. Temperatures will also begin a
slow climb, returning to the mid 90s interior Wed-Thu.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Remainder of the Afternoon-Tonight...High pressure over the Ohio
Valley will slowly slip towards the mid Atlc states and southeast
U.S. This will create a tightening pressure gradient with lower
pressures southward. Expect NERLY winds to increase to 15-20 kts
this afternoon becoming ENE tonight, further strengthening to 20
kts over the Brevard/Treasure coast waters this evening creating
Poor to Hazardous conditions across most of the local waters of
ECFL. Have added near shore/offshore Brevard waters to the Small
Craft Advisory that begins at 00Z/8PM tonight. Seas will build to
2- 4 ft near shore and 4-5 ft Gulf Stream by sunset. Seas build
further to 3-5 ft near shore and 4-6 ft Gulf Stream (Melbourne
southward) tonight.

Extended Marine Forecast Discussion Modified...

Sat-Tue...High pressure will push seaward with a trailing ridge axis
extending westward across north Florida into early next week. The
pressure gradient will remain tightest across the southern waters
and will support 20 kts through Sat so continue a Small Craft Adv
(SCA) south of Sebastian Inlet until 02Z/10PM Sat night, but will
end SCA across the Brevard waters at 14Z/10AM. Conditions gradually
improve Sun through Tue as the trailing ridge axis settles across
north FL and eases the easterly pressure gradient which will still
support 10-15 kts. Seas reach 6-7 ft in the Gulf Stream south of the
Cape on Sat. Seas will fall below 5 ft offshore Sun. Seas 3-4 ft Mon
and 2-3 ft Tue.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

Remainder of the Afternoon...Breezy/gusty NE/ENE winds 15-20 mph
with frequent gusts to 25 mph and occasional gusts to 30 mph.
Winds will gradually diminish thru mid-evening. Very Good to
Excellent dispersion.

Sat-Tue...The breezy/gusty onshore (ENE/E) flow will continue into
the weekend as the pgrad remains fairly tight. Shower and lightning
storm chances will remain below normal through the weekend. The best
chance for convection will be along the Treasure Coast. Min RH
values will hover near 35% across interior sections each afternoon
while holding between 45% and 55% along the coast. The increase in
wind speeds will produce Very Good to Excellent dispersion values
and combined with increasingly dry fuels, will produce very
sensitive fire weather conditions thru at least Sat across all of
east central Florida. Any new or ongoing fires may spread rapidly.
Scattered showers and storms should gradually increase in coverage
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFs)
Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Breezy and gusty this
afternoon. Northeast winds around 12-15 KT with gusts 20-25 KT
possible. Isolated light showers will be possible across the far
western interior. Confidence is not high enough to include VC
wording at this time, but will monitor and amend as necessary.
Greatest potential will be for KLEE-KISM-KMCO. Winds will
decrease slightly overnight to 8-12 KT before becoming breezy and
gusty once again on Saturday. Winds will increase to 10-15 KT with
gusts 20-25 KT by Saturday early morning along the coast, and by
mid-morning across the interior. Showers and isolated storms will
be possible Saturday afternoon, mainly across the southern
Treasure Coast. VC wording may be added in later packages for
Saturday`s activity, especially for SUA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  72  85  70  86 /   0  10  10  20
MCO  72  87  70  88 /  10  10  10  20
MLB  74  85  73  86 /  10  10  20  30
VRB  73  86  72  87 /  10  20  30  40
LEE  70  88  70  90 /   0  10  10  20
SFB  70  88  69  89 /   0  10  10  20
ORL  72  88  70  89 /  10  10  10  20
FPR  73  86  71  86 /  10  20  30  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ552-572.

     Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 10 PM EDT
     Saturday for AMZ555-575.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sedlock
AVIATION...Watson