979
FXUS62 KMLB 192317
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
717 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 717 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

IMPACTS:
-Occasional MVFR CIGs/VIS in quick-moving showers.
-Gusty easterly breezes, locally exceeding 25 KT.

Persistence is the name of the game as we await the next weak
disturbance in the deep easterly flow off the Atlantic. This
provides an increase in shower coverage late this evening through
early Thursday morning, with a diminishing trend between
20/10-13Z. The chance of lightning is around 20% tonight. VFR
will dominate outside of showers. East winds will remain gusty at
times.

At the tail end or just beyond these TAFs, a stronger piece of
energy approaches the NE coast of Florida tomorrow evening. With
it, the potential increases for another period of showers and
reduced CIGs, particularly for DAB/TIX/SFB.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Now-Tonight...Scattered showers persist this afternoon across
portions of the area, at the moment focused around the Orlando
metro and points west. Temperatures have recovered in a number of
locations, including those that saw rain earlier today. Values
span the 80s with a few spots pushing 90 degrees. RAP analysis
indicates a tightened MSLP gradient over central Florida. Together
with a bit of daytime mixing (as sunshine emerges from the
clouds), gusty winds are once again reaching 25-30 mph. Breezy to
gusty conditions will remain through sunset in most places,
gradually decreasing inland with wind speeds staying elevated at
the coast tonight. A continuation of isolated to scattered showers
is anticipated with a lower threat of isolated lightning storms,
primarily from Orlando/Sanford east toward the coast. In fact, a
complex of showers and storms over the Atlantic is marching
westward this afternoon and if it holds together, could approach
the northern half of the ECFL coast in the next several hours.
Models are struggling to depict representative current conditions
but do show some shower activity approaching the coast around or
just after sunset. Overnight, lows will settle in the mid 70s
everywhere except the coast, which is expected to stay in the
upper 70s most of the night.

Thursday-Friday...An area of showers and storms, associated with
a weak trough over the southwestern Atlantic, will work west-
northwest tomorrow into Friday. Higher PW surrounding this feature
will work across the northern portions of ECFL late tomorrow
afternoon and evening. With persistent onshore flow, scattered
rain showers and isolated lightning storms remain in the forecast.
30-50 PoP sufficiently covers these waves of moisture with
occasional breaks in activity. The QPF is highest generally near
and north of the Cape, reaching up to 1-1.50" through Saturday
morning. However, locally heavier rainfall could produce 1-2" in a
much quicker timeframe, especially where repeated rounds of rain
move over the same locations. Temperatures will continue to warm
each day, despite intermittent cloud cover. Highs in the mid to
upper 80s in most locations, up to 90 degrees inland, are forecast
for Thursday. Friday looks to be a couple to a few degrees warmer
areawide. Overnight low temperatures will remain in the mid to
upper 70s.

Saturday-Tuesday (previous)...As the aforementioned trough washes
out over the eastern US, surface ridging is forecast to build
into the western Atlantic. The ridge axis will extend towards the
Florida peninsula, where it will linger into next week. Sufficient
moisture remains through the extended period, maintaining daily
shower and thunderstorm chances. The NBM continues to suggest very
high (likely) PoPs for this period, but continue to keep PoPs
around 50 percent or so. Onshore winds will veer progressively
southerly into next week, allowing for a more centralized sea
breeze collision, if not a collision over the eastern half of the
peninsula. So, will need to monitor to see if higher PoPs would be
justified and where. Little relief from building temperatures,
with highs reaching the mid 90s over the interior by late weekend
with lingering muggy conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 400 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tonight...Hazardous marine conditions and a Small Craft Advisory
for all of the adjacent Atlantic waters remain. Persistent onshore
flow of 15-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt offshore are forecast
through the overnight period. As a result, seas build as high as 9
ft north of Sebastian Inlet and up to 6-7 ft nearshore. Scattered
showers and isolated lightnings storms will continue drifting
toward the coast tonight.

Thursday-Sunday (modified previous)...Hazardous boating
conditions continue through at least late Thursday night with seas
7-9 ft Thursday possibly approaching 10 ft offshore. Breezy ENE
winds up to 15-20 kts will linger, though slightly lower than
Wednesday. Improving boating conditions will end the work week and
continue into the weekend, as winds and seas diminish. Lingering
seas 4-5 ft Friday afternoon will become 2-3ft by Sunday.
Increasingly southeasterly winds are forecast at 10-15 kts. Daily
shower and thunderstorm chances continue, capable of producing
locally higher wind gusts and seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  76  86  76  89 /  40  50  50  50
MCO  75  88  75  92 /  30  40  20  50
MLB  78  87  76  89 /  40  40  20  50
VRB  77  87  75  89 /  40  40  20  50
LEE  76  90  76  94 /  20  30  20  50
SFB  75  88  75  92 /  30  40  30  50
ORL  76  88  76  92 /  30  40  20  50
FPR  77  87  74  88 /  40  40  20  50

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for FLZ141-154-159-164-
     347-447-647-747.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Friday for AMZ550-552-555-
     575.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ570-572.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Schaper
AVIATION...Heil