142
FXUS64 KMOB 221742
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1242 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1238 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

VFR conditions prevail at the terminals today and Sunday. Winds
will turn southerly to southeasterly along the coast later this
afternoon as the sea breeze progresses inland with light and
variable winds overnight. 07/mb

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 639 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/

...New AVIATION...

AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Primarily a wind shift forecast as northerly winds around 5 knots
this morning become southerly south of US Highway 84 in the
afternoon as a sea-breeze pushes inland. Winds north of the sea-
breeze will remain light and variable. VFR conditions will prevail
with FEW-SCT cumulus clouds around 5000 feet expected this
afternoon and evening. /22

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024/

..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Sunday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

The large upper ridge over the southern half of the U.S. will
retrograde westward as an upper shortwave over the northern Great
Plains passes over the Great Lakes region and then digs southward
over the eastern states. Large scale subsidence and lack of
moisture will result in dry and hot weather conditions through the
weekend.

High temperatures over the weekend will reach the mid to upper 90s
(3-8 degrees above normal), with heat indices across much of the
area ranging from 100 to 105 degrees. Lows will remain 3-8 degrees
above normal tonight, and only lower to 70 to 75 degrees inland
and from 75 to 80 degrees along the coast. Warmer lows are
expected Sunday night in the mid 70s inland with upper 70s and low
80s along the coast, or 5-10 degrees above normal. A MODERATE
risk of rip currents continues through the weekend. /22

SHORT TERM...
(Monday through Monday night)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Rain chances enter back into the forecast on Monday as an
expansive upper level ridge slowly retrogrades westward and an
upper trough deepens along the Eastern Seaboard. Down at the
surface, a weak cold front is expected to sag southward into the
Tennessee Valley and northern portions of Georgia and Alabama on
Monday before becoming diffuse. While the front is not expected to
enter into our area, a plume of increased moisture ahead of this
boundary will gradually sink southward with deep layer moisture
improving across our area on Monday. Precipitable water values
will increase to around 1.8-2 inches by Monday afternoon and this
moisture combined with convergence along the sea- breeze/outflow
boundaries will aid in the development of scattered showers and
storms Monday afternoon and evening. A strong storm or two cannot
be completely ruled out Monday afternoon, but we are not expecting
any organized severe storms at this time.

It will be toasty outside of any convection on Monday and we`ll
likely need our first Heat Advisory of the summer. High
temperatures are currently forecast to climb into the middle and
upper 90s which are about 5-7 degrees above average for this time
of year. The increasing moisture and lack of mixing combined with
these temperatures will result in heat index values of 105-110
degrees Monday afternoon. /14

LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A more active pattern will take hold as we head later into next
week. The aforementioned upper level ridging becomes centered over
the Desert Southwest on Tuesday while broad upper troughing
lingers over much of the eastern US. This pattern will place the
local area within a northwesterly flow aloft through the period.
Guidance is also in good agreement with a shortwave pushing into
the Southeast on Wednesday and slowly inching eastward through
Thursday. Deep layer moisture will continue to rise through the
week due to a persistent southwesterly flow at the surface. The
highest rain chances are expected to occur on Wednesday and
Thursday with numerous showers and storms developing during peak
heating and as the upper shortwave moves within the northwest
flow. Another weak front also tries to push into the Southeastern
States again on Thursday, but confidence in this feature making it
through our area is rather low. Upper level ridging then tries to
build back east on Friday which could help keep showers and
storms more scattered in nature.

Heat will continue to be a concern next week and particularly on
Tuesday. High temperature will rise into the middle and upper 90s
once again Tuesday afternoon with heat index values climbing into
105-110 degree range. We`ll likely need a Heat Advisory for
portions of the area on Tuesday. Ambient temperatures will be a
few degrees cooler on Wednesday and Thursday (thanks to the
increased rain chances and cloud cover), but it will still be
rather warm and humid with heat index values likely staying just
below Heat Advisory criteria during the middle of next week. /14

MARINE...
Issued at 455 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

No hazardous impacts expected as light and variable winds today
become a light to occasional moderate southwesterly to westerly
flow tonight through next week. /22

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      72  94  76  95  76  95  76  93 /   0  10   0  30  20  40  30  50
Pensacola   76  93  78  95  80  94  79  92 /   0  10  10  40  20  50  30  50
Destin      78  92  80  92  81  92  80  90 /   0  10  10  40  20  50  30  50
Evergreen   70  97  73  96  74  97  73  92 /   0  10  10  40  20  50  30  70
Waynesboro  71  97  74  97  74  96  74  94 /   0  10  10  30  20  50  30  60
Camden      71  96  74  95  74  97  73  93 /   0  10  10  30  20  40  30  60
Crestview   71  98  73  97  74  97  74  94 /   0  10   0  40  20  50  20  60

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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