Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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853 FXUS64 KMOB 012336 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 636 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A general light south to southeast flow is expected this evening. Appears we are in a lull in the convective activity with a blend of MVFR/VFR cigs to start the period and only a few shra over the forecast area. Vsby ok. Better coverage of shra/tsra is tracking southeast over southeast LA to across the mouth of the MS. There is potential for an isolated shra/tsra to pop up this evening, but coverage is anticipated to remain too low to mention in the very near term. Chances of shra/tsra trend upward during the early to mid morning hours Sunday. /10 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/ ..New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... NEAR TERM... (Now through Sunday) Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 The upper-level shortwave trough, which supported the development of this morning`s widespread convection, is beginning to push to the east of the local area, with weak shortwave ridging building in behind it. As the ridge moves overhead, forcing will continue to weaken across the area. Latest radar trends show the effect this is having on our convection, with the coverage and intensity of showers and storms diminishing rapidly across the area over the past few hours. Because of this, we have decided to cancel the Flood Watch that was in effect across our coastal counties. Throughout the evening and the early morning hours, expect this lull in convective activity to continue, with rain chances hovering around 20-30% across the area. Prior to sunrise, the ridge is expected to move off to our east as another shortwave trough pushes southeastward across our area. With forcing returning to the area, ample moisture in place, and MLCAPE values increasing up to 2000 J/kg by sunrise, scattered showers and storms are expected to redevelop across the area during the morning and linger into the afternoon. Storms should remain pulse- like in nature, considering that deep layer shear will only increase to around 20 knots and little, if any, low-level shear will be present. Due to this, the overall severe threat remains low for tomorrow, however, as is the case with pulse-type storms, outflow boundary collisions and storms clustering together could result in a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty downburst winds. Additionally, given the saturated soils, any storms that are slow- moving and are efficient rainfall producers could lead to localized flooding concerns, especially for our urban/low-lying areas which have already seen copious amounts of rainfall recently. Lows tonight will range from the upper 60s inland to the mid 70s along the coast. Highs tomorrow will reach the mid to upper 80s. A High risk of rip currents will continue through the period. /96 SHORT TERM & LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Saturday) Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 Upper ridging is expected to be prevalent Monday with only isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms expected. As the ridge shifts eastward Monday night into Tuesday, there are differences in the models regarding the timing of anticipated upper shortwaves and impulses traversing the region in northwest flow as a large upper trough expands from the northern Great Plains to the northeast CONUS and strong upper ridging builds over northern Mexico into the southwestern states. These series of shortwaves over the forecast area throughout the week will need to be examined in future model runs in order to derive a more accurate PoP forecast throughout the week. For now, Tuesday and Thursday seem to the be the best days for higher rain coverage until a pattern shift late in the week brings a return of zonal flow aloft and mainly dry weather conditions Friday and Saturday. A High risk of rip currents Sunday night becomes Moderate on Monday, and than Low Tuesday and Wednesday. /22 MARINE... Issued at 406 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 A moderate southeasterly flow today is expected to gradually weaken to a light onshore flow by Sunday. This overall pattern is anticipated to continue through midweek. Seas will also begin to subside Sunday and Monday. /96 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 70 86 70 88 72 89 73 89 / 40 50 10 10 0 10 10 10 Pensacola 72 84 73 86 74 87 75 88 / 40 40 10 10 0 10 0 10 Destin 73 83 74 86 75 87 76 87 / 50 40 10 10 0 10 0 10 Evergreen 67 87 67 89 68 92 68 92 / 40 50 10 20 10 30 10 10 Waynesboro 68 88 67 90 69 92 70 92 / 30 30 10 20 10 30 20 10 Camden 67 87 67 88 69 90 69 91 / 40 40 10 20 10 30 10 20 Crestview 67 87 67 90 67 92 68 92 / 40 50 10 20 0 20 0 10 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for FLZ202-204- 206. MS...None. GM...None. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob