508
FXUS64 KMOB 261912
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
212 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

High pressure and upper ridging dominate the weather pattern this
Sunday afternoon, with scattered clouds and temps in the upper 80s
to lower 90s. Not much change is expected to the sensible weather
pattern through the remainder of the day and into this evening, with
highs reaching into the lower 90s areawide. This will begin to
change during the predawn hours as another system moves into the
region from the Plains. Until then, expect increasing clouds
overnight and lows dropping into the lower to mid 70s across our
inland counties to the upper 70s along the coast.

As mentioned above, we`ll see a brief pattern change on Monday, as a
cold front approaches the area from the west-northwest. The upper
ridge currently in place will begin to retreat to the south as a
shortwave trough moves into the Mississippi Valley this evening.
Flow aloft will become weakly southwesterly, with not a lot of
moisture advection in the mid and upper levels. Despite that, the
surface cold front will move east of the Mississippi River early
Monday morning, with enough moisture in place to continue scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the day Monday as the front moves
through. Guidance differs a bit on just how far south the front is
able to make it and whether or not the front stalls. Based on latest
trends, it appears likely that the front will make it at least to
the coast, weakening as it drifts to the south and east.

The uncertainty on how far south the front makes and how much deep
layer moisture will be in place leads to a rather complicated set up
for tomorrow in terms of the threat for severe thunderstorms. With
plentiful low level moisture and surface heating, instability will
be rather abundant through the day. However, with the weakening cold
front and the forecast area being on the southern fringe of the
shortwave trough, there may be too little forcing to overcome the
relative lack in moisture. Confidence is not overly high on more
than isolated coverage of showers/storms over much of the area, with
even lesser confidence on the coverage of severe thunderstorms. This
makes tomorrow`s severe thunderstorm forecast very conditional. If
we have enough moisture and lift for thunderstorms to develop, there
will be enough shear associated with the eastward moving trough to
combine with the abundance of instability to lend a low end severe
thunderstorm threat. Given the shear in place, there is a window for
a very low tornado threat across portions of our northeastern
counties where the trough becomes more negatively tilted and storms
may be able to organize and tap into the low level shear. Brief
damaging wind gusts and hail are also possible in the stronger
storms. The main timing for the severe threat is during the
afternoon and evening when peak heating may aid in the development
of thunderstorms. Again, very low confidence on the overall set up
tomorrow and there may be areas that see no rain at all. /73

&&

.SHORT and LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

Any lingering thunderstorms will diminish Monday night as we lose
our daytime heating and the front slides south of the area. After a
brief period of northwesterly mid and upper level flow, flow aloft
becomes more zonal on Tuesday. Meanwhile at the surface, high
pressure building into the region from the north will keep a
northerly surface flow through the day on Tuesday. Dry conditions
are expected for the most part, though an isolated thunderstorm is
possible over interior Mississippi during the afternoon.

The frontal boundary along the coast will lift northward on
Wednesday, while another trough swings into the Mississippi Valley
once again. This broad upper trough will remain over the eastern
CONUS through the end of next week, with weak shortwaves rounding
the base of the trough each day. These shortwaves, along with the
weak frontal boundary along our coast, will aid in diurnally driven
convection, with isolated thunderstorms possible each afternoon.
Otherwise, expect hot and humid conditions to continue for the
region, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows
generally in the 60s. /73

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

A light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will
continue through Monday. Winds will be slightly higher in the
bays and sounds with the afternoon seabreeze. A cold front will
approach from the north on Monday and push offshore by Tuesday
night. A light diurnal flow pattern will follow in the wake of the
front, with offshore flow at night becoming onshore during the
day.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Mobile      76  90  71  93  68  89  69  89 /  10  40  10  10  10  20  20  20
Pensacola   78  87  74  91  71  87  71  88 /  10  40  20  10  10  10  20  20
Destin      78  86  75  90  73  87  72  87 /  10  20  20  10  10  10  10  10
Evergreen   73  90  67  93  65  89  64  88 /  10  50  20  10  10  20  20  20
Waynesboro  73  93  66  93  66  87  65  87 /  30  30  10  10  10  30  20  20
Camden      73  90  67  90  65  87  64  86 /  20  50  10  10  10  20  20  20
Crestview   72  90  69  94  65  91  65  91 /  10  40  20  10  10  10  10  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

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