Flash Flood Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
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512 AWUS01 KWNH 192010 FFGMPD NMZ000-200104- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0469 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 409 PM EDT Wed Jun 19 2024 Areas affected...South-Central New Mexico Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 192009Z - 200104Z Summary...Thunderstorms are beginning to form atop the terrain in South-Central New Mexico. A few instances of flash flooding will remain possible this afternoon as slow-moving thunderstorm coverage increases over the next few hours. Discussion...Recent GOES Day Cloud Phase RGB and GLM data suggest convective initiation is underway across portions of South-Central New Mexico, with increasing glaciation and lightning activity noted along the Sandia Manzano and Sacramento Mountains. A recent storm in Southern Lincoln county with rainfall rates upwards of .5"/hr prompted a Flash Flood Warning as the cell was nearly stationary. This uptick in activity is in response to persistent diurnal heating, combined with strong easterly upslope flow, ushering in a very moist airmass with tropical origins from TS Alberto to the south. Owing to the strong heating and continued moistening across the region, recent mesoanalysis and GPS estimates depict 1500 J/kg of MLCAPE and 0.8-1.0" PWAT values just downstream from the convection--around the 90th percentile for the region. 30-40 kts of effective shear organized in a veering profile are noted just downstream of the activity as well, which will support some multicells and even supercells with very slow forecast storm motions (varying from 5-15 kts). As additional slow-moving storms form over the next several hours, the 12Z HREF neighborhood probabilities suggest an increasing chance of 5-10 year ARI exceedences within the highlighted area (50% and 35%, respectively) through 0Z. This translates to localized rainfall amounts of 2-3" where convection sits the longest, which could continue the risk for scattered flash flooding risk as a result. Asherman ...Please see www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...MAF... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 35750564 35510430 34350428 33790446 32300505 32310578 33510607 34880628