137
FXUS63 KMQT 131938
AFDMQT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Marquette MI
338 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A couple showers and possibly a storm or two could occur over
  the west this evening. Dry weather returns late tonight.

- Dry Friday and early Saturday before the return of showers and
  thunderstorms later in the weekend.

- Warmer than normal temperatures frequent the forecast, with
  some areas approaching 90 for highs by next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 337 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

With a line of showers and storms having exited our region this
afternoon, expect the rest of today to go fairly pleasantly, with
mostly sunny skies being seen across the western 2/3rds of the area
as seen on GOES-16 imagery. With the cold front moving in this
evening, we could see a few more showers and possibly some
thunderstorms develop over the western U.P. this evening. However,
with high pressure building in, expect the rainfall to be done by
midnight local time. With mostly clear skies expected tonight,
expect lows to plummet into the 40s in the interior areas. We may
see some upslope fog/low-level stratus over the Keweenaw late
tonight. However, the uncertainty in this occurring is fairly high,
as the outflow of a storm over northern Lake Superior is visibly
moving across the rest of the lake, possibly inducing mixing.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 547 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

After a few lingering showers/thunderstorms (far south) this
evening, high pressure will strengthen over Upper Michigan. This
will bring a lull to the active weather and dry conditions for a
bit. Meanwhile though, focus will be on a potent cutoff low over the
Pacific Northwest and the potential for several rounds of showers
and thunderstorms through the weekend/next week ahead and with it.
With multiple lifting mechanisms in the pattern, there will still be
much ambiguity in regard to timing and strength of storms.  The
first round, though, is expected to arrive late Saturday as a wave
approaches just ahead of a surface low centered over central
Manitoba.  This disturbance will help to transport moisture from the
Gulf and strong WAA ahead of the aforementioned cutoff and surface
lows.  And, early indications are trending toward a cold front
moving through this environment on Sunday.

Again, it is still tough to pinpoint the details of the dynamics,
but one thing for certain is that there will be a strong warming
trend through next week. And, this hints at some unstable
environments in place until the timing of the dynamics come into
better agreement.  Temperatures will already start out above normal
on Friday with highs climbing into the low to mid 70s.  And, the
trend will continue through the weekend with mid to upper 70s and
finally mid to upper 80s across portions of the interior by Monday
and through the week.  So, overall a warm and wetter pattern
throughout the extended period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions continue across KIWD and KSAW over the next 24 hours,
while KCMX eventually has the low-level stratus leave by the mid-
afternoon. We may see some upslope fog/low-level stratus return over
KCMX late tonight via fog from Lake Superior. Gusty winds are
expected across the TAF sites this afternoon ahead of an incoming
cold front.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM EDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Southwesterly winds will become west-northwesterly and increase
behind a cold front later this morning with gusts of 20 to 25 knots.
By Friday, winds will return to less than 20 knots with the return
of high pressure where they will stay until early Sunday morning. At
that point, the next cold front will bring southerly winds of 20 to
25 knots along with 4 to 5 foot waves along the US/Canada border on
Lake Superior.  In addition, thunderstorm chances will return to the
forecast, but it is too early to determine severity.

&&

.MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Upper Michigan...
None.
Lake Superior...
None.
Lake Michigan...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TAP
LONG TERM...TDUD
AVIATION...TAP
MARINE...TDUD