Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
Issued by NWS Marquette, MI
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439 FXUS63 KMQT 241740 AFDMQT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 140 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Other than a low chance (15-30%) of showers this afternoon through tonight in eastern Upper Michigan, dry weather is expected this week into the weekend. - Temperatures trend to well above normal by late this week. && .SHORT TERM /TODAY/... Issued at 445 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Upper Michigan remains under the influence of high pressure early this morning per latest surface/RAP analysis. But, weak WAA in the return flow ahead of the next disturbance currently over the Dakotas/MN has kept temperatures a tad warmer than yesterday morning. Currently, ground-based obs across the area are generally reporting mid to upper 40s with the usual cold spots coming in around 40, 10 degrees warmer than yesterday morning`s obs at this time. And, any fog formation so far has remained concentrated over the Land O` Lakes area. For the remainder of today, expect pleasant weather with plenty of sunshine and high temperatures warming into the upper 60s in the southerly flow. The exception could be a few rain showers sneaking into the far eastern portions of the area late in the day as a surface low tracks northeast across Illinois. But, the best dynamics with this disturbance should stay south and east of Upper Michigan. && .LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 413 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Starting tonight, mid level troughing will broadly extend from Hudson Bay down to the Lower Mississippi Valley with strong ridging over the Rockies. At the sfc, a ~1007mb low will be positioned over Lower MI. As the ridge shifts east tonight and Wednesday, the trough directly over the Great Lakes shifts east and the lower trough forms a closed low forms over the Lower Mississippi Valley. The sfc low follows an embedded shortwave, taking a northeast track through Lower MI and over Lake Huron. As a result, some light showers are possible east of Munising and Fairport tonight. Outside the mostly cloudy skies in the far east, partly cloudy skies are likely overnight where dry weather persists; patchy fog may develop late where there is better clearing. Lows settle into the 40s to low 50s, warmer in the east where there is more cloud cover. Dry weather returns to the CWA by Wednesday morning as the trough pushes east through northern Ontario and ridging progresses eastward over the Northern Plains. Ridging becomes centered over the Great Lakes by Friday as the closed low continues spinning over the south; the tropical system begins to interact with the closed low Thursday night/Friday. Although there is still plenty of uncertainty with those two features to the south over the weekend, high pressure and ridging likely will keep us dry the rest of the week and much of the weekend too. Thus, opted to remove all NBM PoPs from the CWA until Sunday afternoon, leaving the rest in for model uncertainty. Some high level clouds may advect north from the tropical system over the weekend. Further out, there is some agreement in a mid level trough moving east along international border early next week. This would send a low pressure system northeast off the northern Rockies Sunday night/Monday to northern Ontario on Tuesday, bringing the next best shot at showers. Otherwise, some additional fog development is possible Wednesday night/Thursday morning across the UP. Model soundings show a stronger inversion with low level moisture and winds become calm under mostly clear skies. Temps trend to well above normal again by the latter part of the week (highs in the 70s and lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s). A few spots hitting 80 can`t be ruled out Thursday through Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 140 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Aside from a pesky MVFR deck at KCMX that is only expected to hang on another couple of hours into the afternoon at most, VFR prevails at all TAF sites through this evening. Mainly light winds under 5 knots with low pressure well to the southeast, though the direction may become variable especially in the vicinity of lake breezes. Overnight, CMX and IWD will stay VFR, but SAW is at least 35% likely to see radiation fog drop visbys below MVFR thresholds with up to 15% probabilities of airport minimum dense fog. For now, will cap at MVFR, but if model trends towards lower visibility, could see IFR or LIFR in future TAF issuances. && .MARINE... Issued at 413 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Southeast winds gradually tapper off this morning before backing east in the afternoon. A few gusts around 20 kts are possible over the east half of the lake early this morning. Although a low pressure system tracks through Lower MI today and northeast across Lake Huron tonight, winds are expected to remain below 20 kts as they become westerly by Wednesday. From there, high pressure looks to dominate the forecast keeping winds at or below 20 kts the remainder weekend; unusually benign weather for this time of year. The next shot for winds to increase above 20 kts holds off until early next week when a low pressure system tracks to the north of the Great Lakes. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...TDUD LONG TERM...Jablonski AVIATION...GS MARINE...Jablonski