Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT
727 FXUS65 KMSO 071929 AFDMSO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Missoula MT 129 PM MDT Fri Jun 7 2024 .DISCUSSION...Ridging over the Pacific Northwest will continue to bring pleasant and dry conditions into Saturday. Highs reach into the 80s across western Montana and low 90s for the lowest elevations of north-central Idaho. A strong easterly gradient develops across western Montana Saturday evening through early Sunday for a change of wind direction. High- resolution guidance shows gusts over 25 mph (90% probability) on the east side of Flathead Lake beginning just before sunset on Saturday. Similar speeds appear likely (60-90%) for other smaller lakes of northwest Montana such as Swan Lake and lakes in the Glacier Region. If timing continues to show impacts just before sunset then a lake wind advisory may be needed for Flathead Lake but there is still uncertainty if the wind shift will match up with evening recreation interests. Bottom line, if you plan to be on the water Saturday evening, be prepared for an abrupt increase in winds and choppy conditions. A disorganized disturbance passes through Sunday afternoon into Monday leading to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Classic patterns for severe weather dont stand out as instability and shear are marginal. Still keep in mind, given the dry low levels, isolated gusty outflow winds cant be ruled out. Precipitable water values reach near 0.8 inch, thus locally heavy rain will fall with stronger storms as well. The best chances (35-45%) for thunderstorms will be I-90 southward, closer to 20% across northwest Montana. Mostly dry conditions return Tuesday through Thursday of next week under a westerly flow. Breezy winds will develop each afternoon and evening with valleys seeing gusts of 20-30 mph. Higher gusts of 30-40 mph will impact the higher terrain, especially in northwest Montana. Changes are still noted around June 16-18 with 75% of ensemble clusters showing troughing over the western U.S. Significant uncertainty remains with the timing and evolution of the trough but a strong ridge leading to significant heat is not anticipated through the middle of June. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions will dominate into Saturday as ridging continues over the Pacific Northwest. Westerly gusts of 15-20 kt this afternoon will diminish around sunset. A north to east wind gradient develops late Saturday across western Montana for a change of wind direction with gusts of 20-30 kts at KGPI and KMSO in the evening. && .MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...None. ID...None. && $$