049
FXUS66 KMTR 141929
AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Francisco CA
1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Gradual warming trend into Friday before a slight cooldown over the
weekend. Gusty winds will develop late Friday into Sunday. Warming
trend resumes early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025

An upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific extends itself over
the West Coast, resulting in benign weather for the next couple of
days. Satellite imagery shows thin high clouds entering the North
Bay, lingering stratus at the immediate coast of the San Mateo
Peninsula, and fair weather cumulus popping up in the eastern Santa
Clara Hills and the mountains of interior Monterey and San Benito
Counties. Overall conditions remain dry and seasonably warm
throughout the region with highs ranging from the lower to middle
70s inland and the middle 60s to lower 70s along the Bayshore, while
onshore flow keeps the coastal regions cool with highs in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Inland temperatures warm slightly tomorrow with
the interior valleys reaching the middle 70s to the lower 80s, but
otherwise the forecast is similar to today`s weather with coastal
stratus south of the Golden Gate that moves down the Salinas Valley
and into the Morgan Hill-Hollister area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1229 PM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Seasonably warm conditions continue on Friday with the inland
valleys remaining near the middle 70s to lower 80s, while the
Bayshore sees highs in the upper 60s to middle 70s. Highs along the
coastal regions remain relatively constant and cool, owing to the
sea breeze influence.

Later on Friday through Saturday, an upper level trough will develop
off the Pacific Northwest and deepen into a cutoff low in the Great
Basin, causing a dip in temperatures for the upcoming weekend.
Saturday`s high temperatures will dip by around 10 degrees in the
interior valleys, to around the middle 60s to lower 70s, while the
Bayshore drops into the lower to middle 60s. Although the cutoff low
will continue to move eastwards, leaving a classic "inside slider"
scenario less likely, the pressure gradient between the cutoff low
and a ridge in the eastern Pacific will still result in gusty winds
across the region later on Friday into Sunday. The current forecast
continues to show wind gusts reaching 25 to 30 mph across the region
with gusts up to 45 mph possible at the ridgelines, along the coast,
and through favored gaps and passes.

Warming temperature will return for the early part of next week with
high temperatures rising to the lower 80s to lower 90s inland, or
around 5 to 10 degrees above seasonal averages. On the backside of
the cutoff low, northerly winds could develop in the interior
regions, especially in Napa County and the interior East Bay,
helping to reinforce the warmer and drier conditions in those areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1051 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

MVFR conditions are ongoing around the Central Coast this morning
with VFR elsewhere. West/Northwest winds will increase this
afternoon before easing into the night. There is high confidence for
KSNS, KMRY, KHAF and potentially KOAK to see a return of MVFR/IFR
conditions early Thursday morning. Elsewhere, moderate confidence
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

Vicinity of SFO...Expecting moderate west-northwest winds by this
afternoon with occasional gusts and VFR conditions. Moderate
confidence VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals...MVFR ceilings linger at KMRY while VFR
conditions have returned to KSNS. KMRY is expected to return to VFR
by around 19Z. Northwest winds will increase this afternoon before
easing by this evening. High confidence for MVFR/IFR conditions to
return Thursday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 825 AM PDT Wed May 14 2025

Winds are increasing across the waters with Gales in the northern
waters that will spread to the southern outer waters into
Wednesday afternoon. These strong winds will result in steep fresh
swell with hazardous conditions. Winds and seas look to remain
elevated through the forecast period.

&&

.MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Mry Bay.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Thursday for Mry Bay.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM PDT this afternoon for Pigeon Pt
     to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-
     10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt
     Pinos 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Thursday to 3 AM PDT Friday for
     Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm-Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras
     Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Pt Pinos to Pt
     Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-
     60 NM.

     Gale Warning until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-
     60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DialH
LONG TERM....DialH
AVIATION...RGass
MARINE...RGass

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