Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
Issued by NWS San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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909 FXUS66 KMTR 060259 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 759 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 ...New UPDATE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Hot again today as the heatwave peaks. A couple of degrees cooler Thursday, followed by further cooling Friday. Above average temperatures hang around through the weekend. Another potential hot period mid next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 754 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Another warm to hot day today, especially in locations further from the coast. We thought we had a record high today at Half Moon Bay, but further review of the data and surrounding stations makes us think that the observation was erroneous. Most of the region should start to cool down tomorrow, with the inland valleys seeing highs from the 90s into the low 100s in the most inland places. The operations floor considered ending the Heat Advisory early as a result of the cooldown. However, the combination of temperatures remaining above seasonal averages, and the cumulative effect of the last two days of heat, have caused us to keep the Heat Advisory in effect into tomorrow. DialH && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday) Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Temperature today running pretty well in line with the forecast. Based off of temperatures yesterday, kept today`s forecast nudged toward the 90th percentile. Many locations will see highs today very similar to yesterday, a few degrees higher for areas south of the SF Bay Area. The only exception would be the immediate coastline where onshore flow is battling to keep the shallow marine layer intact. These areas are running a couple of degrees cooler. By Thursday, a shortwave trough around the periphery of a deep upper low in the Gulf of Alaska traverses through the West Coast, deepening the marine layer a bit and slightly enhancing the onshore flow. This will cool temperatures further for most locations, aside from the far inland spots like interior Napa, far eastern Alameda and Contra Costa, and interior Monterey/San Benito. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1255 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 The Heat Advisory expires at midnight Thursday night with further deepening of the marine layer and additional cooling expected by Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures persist through the weekend as upper level ridging dominates the pattern over the west. However, persistent onshore flow and a weak trough over the eastern Pacific should moderate our temps enough to keep them a bit lower into early next week. The middle of next week looks like our next potentially impactful warm period as the ridge builds once again. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 446 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon. Generally speaking VFR conditions at most terminals through the taf period. Will be watching a southerly surge sneaking up the coast bringing clouds into Monterey Bay early Thursday. Other guidance hints at some low clouds around the region, but confidence is too low to include them in the taf. For now will carry a few/sct group. Vicinity of SFO...VFR with moderate winds. Winds are much less than 24 hours ago and the 01s should be below threshold for crosswinds. At this time decided to include a few-sct group tomorrow morning inside SF Bay for potential cigs. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR through late tonight. Low clouds near Pt Conception will sneak up the Big Sur coast tonight and early tomorrow. Models are typically too slow with arrival and speed of southerly surges. Therefore, put a tempo for MRY as cigs sneak around the peninsula and put prevailing for SNS. Low confidence for overall southerly surge outcome. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Monday) Issued at 446 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Moderate to locally stronger northerly winds will persist over the coastal waters as high pressure remains over the Eastern Pacific. A moderate period Northwest swell will continue impact the coastal waters through Thursday. Swell will diminish Friday through Saturday before waves build again towards the end of the period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 505 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening. Forecast remains on track. Moderate period swell is entering the coastal waters at 14-17 seconds with heights varying 7-11 feet. The would generate breaking waves of 8-15 feet with locally higher waves at favored break points. Sneaker waves can run over 100 ft up a dry beach, pulling people in the water from rocks, jetties, and beaches. Inexperienced swimmers should stay out of the water. Observe the ocean for 20 minutes before relaxing on the beach. The hot weather inland will lead to more people visiting the beach this week. Know where lifeguards are, obey their instructions, and never turn your back on the ocean! && .CLIMATE... Issued at 152 AM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 Record high temperatures at the long term climate stations for June 5th: Station June 5th Santa Rosa 102 in 1926 Kentfield 102 in 1926 Napa 105 in 1903 Richmond 86 in 1983 Livermore 104 in 1926 San Francisco 95 in 1883 SFO Airport 89 in 1972 Redwood City 97 in 2002, 1972 Half Moon Bay 74 in 1958 Oakland downtown 87 in 2002 San Jose 100 in 1926 Salinas Airport 87 in 1949 King City 105 in 1926 && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday evening for CAZ006-505- 509-530. Heat Advisory until midnight PDT Thursday night for CAZ503-504- 506-510-512>516-518. PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm-Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 10-60 NM. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT Thursday for Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 10-60 NM-Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...MM MARINE...MM Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea www.twitter.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea