941
FXUS63 KOAX 241106
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
606 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temperatures through the work/school week with low
  chance (20-30%) of showers this morning; otherwise mostly dry
  conditions through Thursday.

- A complex weather pattern is in store going into and lasting
  through the weekend, with increasing confidence in drier
  conditions and temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Today:

Water vapor imagery this morning depicts a seasonally high-amplitude
ridge centered over the Pacific Coast, with a broad trough pointing
southward over the Northern Plains and broad forcing ahead of it
extending well into the Mid-Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys. At
the surface, a cold front continues to progress southeastward,
stretching from far western Minnesota to south-central Nebraska
resulting in a broken band of light rain showers that have so far
only mustered trace amounts of moisture. Expect this broken band of
rain to continue pushing southeastward through eastern Nebraska and
southwestern Iowa while staying in the ballpark of a trace in terms
of additional rainfall due to the general lack of column moisture in
the wake of this last weekend`s frontal passage. By 9 or 10 AM, the
thicker cloud cover with the main front will be mostly clear of the
area, allowing for clearing skies ahead of an afternoon cumulus
field to punctuate a very pleasant day with highs in the mid-to-
upper 70s.

Wednesday and Beyond:

As the deep trough continues pushing east of the area Wednesday, the
global deterministic model solutions depict the mid/upper pattern
developing a cutoff low as the southernmost lobe of 500 mb
vorticity pinches off from over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. What
this will mean locally is that the main ridge to the west will
struggle to make too much headway into the forecast area and
only slightly warmer temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s
rather than a warmer pattern will move in. Dry weather will
continue as the main forcing for ascent will be located well to
the southeast, while any potential wraparound moisture takes its
time to kick into gear with the deepening low.

Both the National Hurricane Center and model consensus have a
potentially strong tropical system making landfall over the
Florida Panhandle region Thursday, to the southeast of the
aforementioned cutoff low. The spread that was apparent with the
last couple of days` model runs in the progression of the main
mid/upper pattern has decreased dramatically, with general
consensus that the tropical system and the aforementioned cutoff
low will merge, and generally fester over the Mid-Mississippi
Valley for the weekend. We`ll continue to find ourselves on the
cooler side of the broad mid/upper ridge over the western half
of the CONUS (temps in the upper 70s to low 80s), and on the dry
side of the pattern while the cutoff system spins to the
southeast. There is still plenty of time for models to laze the
deep surface system north and west enough to bring some minor
moisture to southeast Nebraska and southwest Iowa, but at this
moment any rainfall will be hard to come by -- especially any
amounts that will make an impact.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 600 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF cycle with a few
scattered very light rain showers around east-central, southeast
Nebraska and southwest Iowa through the morning. Mid clouds
will continue to clear from northwest to southeast through 18Z
with northwesterly surface winds increasing and gusting to near
20kts behind a cold front. Winds should become light and
variable after sunset this evening as surface high pressure
builds overhead.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Petersen
AVIATION...Kern