Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
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782 FXUS64 KOHX 180147 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 847 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 843 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 We have had a few storms scattered across our western counties this evening. Some have produced gusty winds over 30 mph, but no severe wx has been reported. Another storm or 2 could bubble up briefly this evening in our far western counties before activity completely shuts off for the night. Otherwise, another muggy night will continue with some patchy late night fog, especially in areas that received rain this evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Tuesday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 Strong upper level ridge is building over the eastern US. A few weak short waves are spinning around the ridge and this will give us the chance for a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The ridge is a bit further west today and that will keep the threat mainly along and west of I-65. Poor lapse rates and low shear will keep any thunderstorms from becoming organized but can`t rule out isolated wind gusts to 40 mph as storms collapse on themselves. Heavy rain will be the main concern with any convection with PWATs greater than 1.70". Some areas could get a quick inch of rain under any thunderstorms. Thunderstorm activity will diminish quickly as the sunsets. It will be hot again today but with mid to high level clouds it should be a little cooler than yesterday, still looking at highs in the low to mid 90s. Dew points are very uncomfortable in the low to mid 70s and once you factor in the heat index it will feel similar to yesterday. High to mid level clouds stick around tonight and that will keep things warm overnight with lows only in the low to mid 70s. Another short wave will spin around the ridge early tomorrow and may bring a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to far northern areas in the morning. Afternoon highs will once again be in the 90s with dew points in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday Night through next Monday) Issued at 1156 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 We are going to see quiet weather for the week as a strong ridge builds over the eastern US. This will continue to bring hot weather with highs staying in the 90s. Dew points will stay in the mid 60s to around 70. The ridge will start to push west some as we head into the later part of the week into next weekend. This will push highs into the mid to upper 90s and we could see a few 100s over the weekend. An upper level trough will push into the Great Lakes Sunday into early next week. This will push a front into the region and will bring shower and thunderstorm chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 617 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024 The taf period will begin with scattered thunderstorms for the CSV area. The terminal may be impacted by brief gusty winds and heavy downpours until 02Z. Otherwise, VFR conditons are expected through the next 24 hours with generally light south winds. Skies will feature scattered cumulus clouds with broken cirrus. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 75 92 73 92 / 10 10 0 0 Clarksville 73 90 72 90 / 20 20 10 0 Crossville 67 86 66 85 / 10 20 0 0 Columbia 72 92 71 90 / 10 10 0 0 Cookeville 71 88 69 87 / 10 20 0 0 Jamestown 70 87 68 86 / 10 20 0 0 Lawrenceburg 72 90 71 88 / 10 0 0 0 Murfreesboro 73 92 72 91 / 10 10 0 0 Waverly 72 90 72 89 / 30 10 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......13 SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....13