568
FXUS61 KOKX 091117
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
717 AM EDT Sun Jun 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through on Sunday followed by a secondary
weak cold front on Monday. An upper level low pivots through
Tuesday, followed by high pressure for the middle of the week. A
cold front approaches Friday and moves through Friday night.
High pressure builds to begin next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Only minor adjustments were made with this update. The forecast
remains on track.

A weak cold front will move across late this morning into the early
afternoon as a trough deepens over the northeast. Ahead of the front
a southerly 35kt LLJ should develop advecting in more moisture with
models bringing in PWATs of 1.2-1.4". SW winds may gust 20-25 mph
ahead of the cold front. Scattered showers look likely for northern
sections of the CWA, with chances dropping as you go south. Most of
the showers look to line up closer to the area of 850mb warm air
advection and positive vorticity advection at 500mb around the base
of the trough, which primarily sits out of our CWA to the
north.

Mostly dry conditions are expected behind the front with a WNW wind
lowering dewpoints and clearing cloud cover. However, one last bit
of upper-level energy around the base of the trough could lead to an
additional round of isolated showers in the late evening today,
mainly for the northern interior areas of the CWA. We`ll continue to
dry and clear and into Sunday night with cold air advection aloft at
850 mb.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s with lows
in the mid 50s to low 60s Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper trough continues to deepen over the northeast as surface
high pressure noses in from the west. Dry conditions remain in place
on Monday with mostly sunny conditions. It will feel much nicer
outside with high temperatures in the 70s close to seasonal averages
and dewpoints 10 degrees lower than Sunday in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Suppressed heights are anticipated with an upper level low pivoting
through to begin the period on Tuesday. Heights then recover into
mid week with more of a quasi-zonal long wave pattern for much of
the week. A weakness then likely develops in the 500 mb long wave
pattern Friday into Saturday.

A mainly dry period is expected. The only chances for any shower
activity will come Tuesday with the upper level low feature, then
late in the week towards late Friday and Friday night with the
arrival of a cold front. With warmer temperatures and likely more
instability, there will be a chance of thunderstorms with any shower
activity late week.

Seasonable temperatures are forecast on Tuesday, before some weak
ridging moves in for mid week. Temperatures will get a few degrees
warmer on Wednesday, followed by above normal temperatures Thursday
and Friday. The speed, and thus timing of a cold front late in the
week and any associated clouds brings more uncertainty around
temperatures very late in the period for Friday and Saturday.
Consensus guidance is suggesting that the front arrives later Friday
night, so at this time going with the warmer trend with temperatures
for Friday and Friday night followed by an air mass change to begin
next weekend on Saturday. Stay fairly close to the NBM guidance
through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front passes across the terminals from mid to late morning
into early afternoon. A weaker cold front passes through tonight.

VFR through the TAF period. Showers may accompany the cold front 12z-
15z for KSWF, 13z-17z for NYC and HPN terminals, 15-18z for KISP and
KBDR, and 16z-19z for KGON. Conditions may briefly drop to MVFR in
the showers, but ceilings are expected to prevail at 5kft.

S and SW winds this morning quickly shifting back to the W and NW
with the cold front passage. Gusts 20-25 kt are expected this
afternoon, but should begin subsiding in the evening. Mainly light W
and SW winds, closer to 5 kt later in the evening.  W to NW winds
return Monday morning.

  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Onset of gusts Sunday may be off by 1-2 hours.

OUTLOOK FOR 12Z MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Monday-Thursday: VFR expected.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
Wind gusts over all waters may approach 25 kts today, but in
general, expect 25 kt gusts to only be occasional with 3-4 foot
waves. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA through the
beginning of next week.

Conditions will remain below small craft levels through midweek with
essentially only up to 2 ft ocean seas. The winds become more
southerly into Thursday with marginal small craft conditions
possible on the ocean by Thursday night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Atlantic ocean beaches, expect a moderate rip current risk
on Sunday, lowering to low on Monday for western beaches, then
dropping to low on all beaches by Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...BR
SHORT TERM...BR
LONG TERM...JE
AVIATION...JE
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...