559
FXUS61 KOKX 100837
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
437 AM EDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of surface troughs pivot through today and tonight as high
pressure builds across for the first half of the week. A cold front
will then approach Friday and move through Friday night, followed by
high pressure next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A very comfortable air mass for this time of year will be in control
for today and tonight. A WNW flow will provide dry conditions with
low humidity. Expect a good deal of sunshine to start.  However,
with an upper level low and cooler air aloft expect more clouds to
develop by the early afternoon as sfc heating increases. A sfc
trough pushes through early in the afternoon which may aid in some
build up in cumulus cloud cover, but any shower threat will be
minimal. The synoptic pressure gradient should provide enough of a
WNW flow to preclude any sea breeze intrusion for today. Perhaps the
immediate shore communities of the twin forks of LI experience a
wind off the water very late in the day. Overall, a partly to
variably cloudy afternoon takes shape with seasonable temperatures
and low humidity.

For tonight look for partly cloudy to mostly clear skies as high
pressure gradually builds from the west. Another sfc trough pushes
through during the evening, after which a more northerly component
takes shape. A light NW to N wind will provide continued dry
conditions with widespread 50s in outlying areas, and lower 60s in
the metropolitan areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
For Tuesday with high pressure pushing in look for a weaker synoptic
pressure gradient. This should allow for more in the way of sea
breeze development for the afternoon. Temperatures will be very
similar to Monday with mainly middle and upper 70s for daytime
maxes. Again, quite comfortable with dew point readings mainly in
the lower half of the 50s with a fair amount of sunshine. Spokes of
upper level energy will pivot through from time to time into Tuesday
evening, but really shouldn`t amount to anything in terms of
sensible wx, with only intervals of clouds anticipated from time to
time.

For Tuesday night high pressure will be directly over the area
providing mainly clear skies. Temperatures once again will be very
comfortable with lows in the 50s again in outlying areas, and upper
50s and lower 60s closer to the coast and in the metropolitan
areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
**Key Points**

*Big warmup for the second half the week, followed by a brief cool
down for the weekend.

*Mainly dry conditions through the period.

*A frontal system to impact the area with showers and thunderstorms
Friday and Friday night.

A trough quickly moves out on Wednesday with shortwave ridging on
Thursday. Afterwards, the upper flow flattens out with a fast flow
from the Northern Plains into the Northeast. This is short-lived as
another upper trough moves into the area to start the weekend. At
the surface, High pressure builds in for Wednesday, giving way to a
frontal system late Friday into Friday night. High pressure then
returns to start the weekend. This will be a mainly dry period with
the exception of the frontal system at the end of the week.

00Z global guidance appears to be in close agreement on the
magnitude and timing of the upper trough swinging across the Great
Lakes and Northeast at the end of the week. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Friday with the frontal system guided
ahead of the upper trough. Based on the NBM box and whisker
temperature plots, the deterministic is generally at the 25th
percentile or lower, especially with respect to high temps. So, this
may not be as much of a cool down behind the cold front as suggested
by the 2m temps of some of the 12Z operational guidance. Relatively
speaking though, it should be noticeable as Thursday and Friday
climb well into the 80s and possibly the lower 90s for the interior.
The 50th percentile is even warmer for those days, so will have to
see where this trends. Given decent onshore flow projected, we can
expect heating to be limited at the coast. Typically at this time of
year, coastal locations need a decent westerly component to achieve
higher temps. The NBM deterministic blended with the SuperBlend
allowed a better representation on the temperature gradient between
the coast and the interior as the SuperBlend had much cooler
temperatures on the coast than the NBM. At this time, max heat
indices are forecast to stay below 90 on Thursday and below 95 on
Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A series of surface troughs/cold fronts pass across the
terminals through Monday night.

VFR.

Winds will then shift back to the WNW-NW towards day break
Monday and begin increasing through the morning. Wind speeds
10-15 kt are expected through the day on Monday. Winds may back
to the SW in the afternoon at ISP, JFK, BDR, and GON from a
modified sea breeze, but confidence in occurrence is not strong
for BDR and JFK. Winds weaken and return to NW MOnday night, and
may become light and variable.


  NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty...

Occasional gusts 15-20 kt late Monday afternoon.

Winds at KJFK could stay WNW through Monday afternoon and not shift
to the SW.


OUTLOOK FOR 09Z TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Monday Night-Thursday: VFR.

Friday: Mainly VFR. MVFR possible in afternoon and evening showers
and thunderstorms.

Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts,
can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure should provide a weakening pressure gradient and thus
fairly tranquil conditions across the coastal waters through mid
week with ocean seas generally around 2 ft. The winds become
southerly for the end of the week ahead of an approaching
frontal system with marginal small craft conditions possible on
the ocean Friday afternoon until Saturday morning.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
At this time no hydrologic concerns exist through the forecast
period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
For the Atlantic ocean beaches, the rip current risk will be
low for NYC and western LI, and decreasing from moderate to low
this afternoon for Suffolk. All beaches will have a low rip
current risk on Tuesday.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JE/BR
NEAR TERM...JE
SHORT TERM...JE
LONG TERM...BR
AVIATION...BR
MARINE...JE/BR
HYDROLOGY...JE/BR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...