264
FXUS66 KOTX 260905
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
205 AM PDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front arrives Wednesday with wind and storms that last
into Thursday. Then the cycle repeats. Mild and dry weather is
likely for Friday followed by heat Saturday and then more wind and
storms for Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday night: A low pressure will move into the
region, bringing significant changes, with thunderstorms likely
Wednesday morning across the Cascades and Eastern WA. The basin will
see little threat of thunderstorms but will see an increase in
winds throughout the afternoon as the pressure gradient tightens.
The Northern Cascades have the highest potential for hail up to the
size of nickles, heavy rain, gusty outflow winds and frequent
lightning. Highs will be in the 80s to low 90s in the LC Valley.

The chance of thunderstorms expands on Thursday, with frequent
lightning being the main concern. Humidity will be higher which will
decrease the threat of fire concerns. Temperatures will cool on
Thursday with highs in the 70s to low 80s. /KM

Friday through Wednesday: Model confidence is high for the trough to
depart the Inland Northwest Friday. There is a 20% chance of showers
in the northern Panhandle mountains Friday with some lingering
moisture from the trough. High temperatures will be in the 70s and
80s. Another shortwave ridge builds into Saturday leading to warmer
temperatures to start the weekend (80s and 90s). This is yet another
short lived ridge as a weak trough brings back shower and
thunderstorm chances along with cooler temperatures (70s and 80s) to
the forecast Sunday and Monday. Another trough in the Gulf of Alaska
modifies the downstream height field varying amounts mid-next week.
Some ensemble members keep zonal flow and seasonal temperatures in
our area with a weaker low and others show deeper ridging with
warmer temperatures and dry conditions. Confidence is much lower
after Sunday thanks to the progressive pattern we are in. db

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: High clouds will begin to increase from the south
overnight with the clouds lowering through the day. Conditions
will remain VFR through the period, except under stronger
thunderstorms where conditions could temporarily go down to MVFR.
Showers and thunderstorms will develop by the afternoon across the
Cascades and move into northern WA and ID. A second area to watch
will be from NE Oregon into the central ID Panhandle mountains.
Storms will have small hail and brief gusty winds. Convection will
quickly wane in the Cascades after 00Z, but will continue for
through the evening across NE WA and the ID Panhandle.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
High confidence in VFR conditions through the TAF period. There is
a 30% chance of thunderstorms for KEAT and a 20% chance of KMWH.
-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        87  53  71  49  77  54 /  20  20  50   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  85  52  66  48  73  52 /  20  20  60  10   0   0
Pullman        85  50  67  48  73  51 /  20  20  20  10   0   0
Lewiston       94  61  77  56  83  58 /  20  20  20  10   0   0
Colville       82  45  68  41  75  46 /  50  40  80  10  10   0
Sandpoint      82  51  63  46  72  50 /  20  30  80  40  10   0
Kellogg        85  55  62  51  70  54 /  20  30  60  20  10   0
Moses Lake     87  53  76  51  81  57 /  40  10  10   0   0   0
Wenatchee      82  57  73  54  80  61 /  50  20  10   0   0   0
Omak           83  52  76  51  82  57 /  70  50  20   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$