312
FXUS66 KOTX 020951
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
251 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain showers, seasonal temperatures, and breezy winds will
recur through Wednesday. Confidence is increasing in a substantial
long duration heatwave starting after July 4th.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and tomorrow: There is a small chance of thunderstorms (20-
40%) in NE WA and N ID again today as a 500 mb speed max approaches
the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Activity should be limited to northern
Stevens, Pend Oreille, Bonner, and Boundary Counties today.
Thunderstorms will be capable of infrequent lightning, small hail,
and gusty outflow winds. Central Washington will be dry and breezy
especially the Cascade gaps. MOS/HREF guidance indicates Wenatchee
could briefly touch red flag warning criteria, but conditions likely
wont last long enough to warrant one. Another shortwave approaches
tomorrow bringing renewed chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the same areas (20-40% chance). /butler

Thursday through Monday: Strong ridging across the region will lead
to dry conditions and temperatures turning hotter for Independence
Day into the weekend. Afternoon highs for the weekend and Monday are
forecast to run about 10-15+ degrees above normal, with some
locations having the potential to approach daily records. The good
news (at least regarding fire weather concerns) is that winds are
not expected to be very strong...though the Wenatchee area,
Waterville Plateau, and Cascade gaps may see some occasional
breezes Sunday and Monday. /KD

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Isolated showers mainly around Deer Park to Coeur
d`Alene into the Central Panhandle Mountains will continue to
wind down this evening into the overnight as drier air aloft
gradually works in. Dry and breezy west-southwest winds will be
common over the region Tuesday afternoon, with the strongest gusts
at KEAT after 22z. There will still be enough lingering moisture
and instability over the north Idaho Panhandle for a 20 percent
chance of showers and thunderstorms including Sandpoint and
Bonners Ferry. JW


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in
VFR conditions.

-----------------------

Confidence descriptors:
Low - Less than a 30 percent chance
Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance
High - Greater than a 70 percent chance

For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports,
please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage:
https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  52  82  55  87  57 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  78  50  78  53  83  55 /  10  10  10   0   0   0
Pullman        76  50  77  52  84  54 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Lewiston       86  56  86  60  93  62 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       79  48  79  46  85  50 /  10  10   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      75  48  76  49  81  50 /  30  30  20   0   0   0
Kellogg        73  50  73  55  80  57 /  10  10  20   0   0   0
Moses Lake     87  54  88  57  93  58 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      83  54  86  61  93  65 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           88  55  88  57  92  60 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$