Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
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036 FXUS66 KOTX 210530 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 958 PM PDT Thu Jun 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend is expected through the week, with high temperatures in the mid 80s to mid 90s on Saturday. A dry cold front on Sunday will create elevated fire weather concerns with widespread breezy winds across the region. This will likely be followed by temperatures cooling back down towards normal values by Monday. && .DISCUSSION... Tonight through Saturday Night: Afternoon cumulus has popped up across the mountains. There is some very weak instability across the Cascades where we could see an isolated strike through sunset. A second area to watch is the Blue Mountains towards the central ID Panhandle. This appears to be a bit more elevated and at best we may see a sprinkle. Otherwise expect skies to clear overnight. The trough will move out the area Friday with a ridge building in through the afternoon. Mostly clear skies, light winds and highs in the 80s to around 90 is forecast for Friday. Saturday is much the same as Friday, with a bit more cloud cover and temperatures 2 to 4 degrees warmer as 850mb temps warm several degrees. Temps in the upper 80s to mid 90s will create a moderate heatrisk, which affects those sensitive to heat, especially those without cooling or adequate hydration. /Nisbet Sunday...Model agreement remains high the ridge axis will migrate well east of eastern WA/north ID with an offshore trough heading onto the west coast. This will begin a significant cooling trend with high temperatures dropping anywhere from 5 to 12F which is still a little warmer than normal, however the bigger news will be the introduction of winds into the equation. The 850 mb winds arent terribly strong (20-25 kts) which will equate to surface wind gusts of 25-35mph with locally higher gusts possible on the Waterville Plateau and near Pomeroy. The winds will combine with relative humidity values of less than 20% over much of central and eastern WA and this will result in an enhanced fire concerns especially for areas with cured fuels which includes much of the Columbia Basin, Waterville Plateau, southern portions of the Okanogan Valley, and the lower Wenatchee Valley. The winds will also bring a gradual increase of moisture for locations near the Cascade Crest due to a deepening marine layer. Monday through Thursday...Model agreement begins to falter just a bit during this period as some of the models move the upper level trough inland while others keep it offshore. By Tuesday about 60 percent of the ensemble runs bring the trough onto the western Washington coast with the remaining 40 percent keeping it farther west. The implication of this would largely consist of temperature differences. The onshore trough runs place highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s while the offshore runs place highs in the 80s to lower 90s. Meanwhile any chance of precipitation will be restricted to locations near the Canadian border on Wednesday afternoon/evening. By Thursday there is better agreement that the trough will finally move ashore with a much better chance of showers across most of the Inland NW. There will also be a decent chance of thunderstorms near the Canadian border and over the Camas Prairie. Temperatures should cool into the 70s to lower 80s. This cooling would also likely be accompanied by gusty winds. fx && .AVIATION... 06z TAFS: A band of high based showers over the southern Idaho Panhandle associated with a plume of mid-level instability will be in the vicinity of Pullman and Lewiston between 06-09z. There won`t be much rain falling from this 8 to 10 thousand foot cloud deck, but there may be an isolated lightning strike or two. This band of showers will move east and exit the Panhandle between 09-12z. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: High confidence in VFR conditions through 06z Saturday. /GKoch ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 51 85 56 88 59 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Coeur d`Alene 50 82 53 85 55 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Pullman 50 81 54 87 58 79 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Lewiston 59 91 60 95 64 90 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Colville 44 83 49 86 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Sandpoint 48 80 50 82 53 79 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kellogg 54 79 57 83 60 76 / 10 0 0 0 0 0 Moses Lake 53 91 58 94 58 85 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Wenatchee 61 90 65 92 60 80 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 Omak 54 89 59 92 56 86 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$