Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
716 FXUS66 KOTX 161740 AFDOTX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Spokane WA 1040 AM PDT Sun Jun 16 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Another round of showers expected for today over the Cascades and northern mountains. Temperatures will trend cooler into the start of early next week with the potential for frost in colder pockets Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains will be possible each afternoon through midweek with gradual warming by late week. && .DISCUSSION... Today and Monday: A deformation band will move South from Southern BC and bring the next round of showers to the region. The areas of impacts will mainly be the over the Cascades and northern mountains. Afternoon convection is possible along the Canadian border with around 20% chance. Precip amounts are only expected to be a few hundredths. Highs for the day will be in the upper 50s and 60s. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and low 40s. Some areas again have potential for frost but the coverage is less than previous night. By Monday, the band has slid East. It will shift the showers out of the Cascades and over the Idaho Panhandle and eastern third of Washington. Afternoon convection will again bring a 20% chance of thunderstorms. Highs for the day will be in the 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows will be in the 40s. /JDC Tuesday through Saturday: A trough lingers over the region Tuesday and Wednesday although its influence lessens with time as this feature weakens. Initially there will be lingering boundary layer moisture which combined with strong surface heating will promote afternoon/evening scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. These will be most prevalent over the northern mountains and Idaho Panhandle. But then as precipitable water values gradually decline into Wednesday areal coverage will decrease as well. Thursday through Saturday the region undergoes more significant warming as southwest flow develops ahead of the next upper low. This will result in a period of dry weather, with temperatures increasing through Saturday, with high temperatures reaching the mid 80s to low 90s. These values would be around 10 degrees above normal. JW && .AVIATION... 18Z TAFS: Showers to increase this afternoon with some embedded thunderstorms across NE WA and north ID. Have mention of some -ra for MWH/EAT, but confidence was not high enough to put mention elsewhere. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND/OR ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: There is high confidence in continued VFR conditions through the day. One potential caveat is there is a 10% chance of MVFR ceilings to develop at KPUW between 15-18Z. ----------------------- Confidence descriptors: Low - Less than a 30 percent chance Moderate - 30 to 70 percent chance High - Greater than a 70 percent chance For additional probabilistic information for NWS Spokane airports, please refer to the Aviation Dashboard on our webpage: https:/www.weather.gov/otx/avndashboard && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Spokane 62 41 68 44 70 45 / 10 10 30 20 30 0 Coeur d`Alene 59 40 64 44 66 43 / 10 10 30 40 40 10 Pullman 58 39 61 40 66 42 / 0 20 40 20 10 0 Lewiston 68 48 68 49 75 49 / 10 30 40 20 10 0 Colville 60 32 68 36 68 38 / 60 40 50 40 60 20 Sandpoint 59 38 63 43 61 41 / 30 30 50 60 70 30 Kellogg 58 43 59 45 61 44 / 10 10 50 50 50 10 Moses Lake 67 43 73 44 76 48 / 10 20 10 10 0 0 Wenatchee 66 48 70 49 76 52 / 30 30 10 0 0 0 Omak 64 43 73 45 76 48 / 40 50 20 10 20 0 && .OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. WA...None. && $$