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000
FXUS66 KOTX 100458
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
958 PM PDT Sun May 9 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
This week will be mainly dry with temperatures warming to above
normal. A chance of showers will be limited to mainly the
mountains early in the week, and again towards next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Tuesday night: A flat upper ridge off the coast
will slowly migrate east through Tuesday bringing a warming trend
for the region. There will however remain weak waves clipping NE
Washington and the Idaho Panhandle that will keep the chance of
showers persisting mainly during peak heating hours (afternoon and
early evening). Models also continue to hint at just enough
instability near the Idaho/Montana border with surface based CAPE
near 100-200 J/KG for a slight chance of a thunderstorm. But with
only weak forcing and lack of lightning the past few days with
similar instability parameters have opted to remove the slight
chance from the forecast. JW

Wednesday through Saturday: For the rest of the work week,
temperatures continue the slight warming trend and get up to the
mid 70s-mid 80s Thursday and Friday. We will be under the
influence of an upper level ridge which will flatten and allow
increased moisture and cloud cover on Wednesday. Thursday is
expected to be mostly sunny and mild. Then, on Friday and
Saturday, a couple of disturbances may bring widespread light rain
with the better chances looking to be Saturday. There isn`t much
model consensus on the timing and amplitude of the system(s), but
light rain showers and the occasional tstorm are suggested as the
resultant precip. Friday and Saturday may be breezy as these
impulses translate through the area and tighten pressure gradients
at the surface. From Saturday onward, max temperature forecasts
have a lot more spread; e.g. Spokane has an 80% likelihood of
experiencing a Saturday max temperature between 80 degrees and 68
degrees at this time. So, we are just as likely to experience
shorts weather as we are to get jacket weather at this point. RC

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Cumulus over the region is slowly dissipating across
the region tonight. A weak short wave ridge noses in on Monday
which should yield overall less coverage of cumulus but should
increase the mid level ceilings during the afternoon. VFR
conditions are expected to continue over the region through the
TAF period. /JDC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        41  66  42  71  45  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Coeur d`Alene  39  64  39  70  42  73 /   0  10   0   0   0   0
Pullman        39  64  38  69  43  73 /   0  10  10   0   0   0
Lewiston       43  70  43  76  48  81 /  10   0   0   0   0   0
Colville       33  69  36  74  40  76 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Sandpoint      37  63  36  67  41  71 /  10  10  10  10  10   0
Kellogg        40  60  43  66  45  70 /  10  40  20  10  10   0
Moses Lake     41  74  39  75  47  81 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      47  72  47  76  51  79 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Omak           38  73  43  76  47  78 /   0   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$