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000
FXUS66 KOTX 272327
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
427 PM PDT Sun May 27 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather is expected for the remainder of the Memorial Day
weekend. Temperatures will warm today and Monday before cooler
weather sets in by the middle of this week. Rain chances will occur
early Wednesday with cooler and occasionally unsettled conditions
through the remainder of the week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tonight through Monday night... Upper level high pressure ridge
will continue to amplify over the region tonight before flattening
somewhat on Memorial Day. This flattening will come as a result
of a shortwave trough expected to pass through southern BC. This
feature won`t result in an increasing chance of precipitation
except in BC. But it will strengthen the cross Cascade pressure
gradients resulting in breezier conditions, especially in the lee
of the Cascades and into the western Columbia Basin. Temperatures
will be tricky since this increased gradient will definitely cool
conditions west of the Cascades but how far east this air will
spill is questionable. The best chances of cooling tomorrow will
occur in the lee of the Cascades including the Methow Valley and
upper Wenatchee Valleys, but the remainder of the forecast area
will see temperatures warmer than today which equates to highs in
the 80s for most valley locations. The increased winds will also
be accompanied by lower dewpoints and consequently lower relative
humidity values. This will raise the fire potential for locations
where the fine grasses are already cured which equates to the
western Columbia Basin and in the lee of the Cascades. Even today,
with relatively light winds we got two fire reports. The only
other weather concern for tomorrow will be a very small risk of
showers over the far SE corner of Shoshone County as some moisture
could actually rotate NW around a deep low over SW WY. Odds are
most of this activity remains south of our forecast area though.

For Tuesday and Tuesday night the upper level trough deepens over
NW WA and SW BC and brings a weak cold front through the region.
Previous model runs showed an SW-NE oriented axis of showers along
this front extending from Pendleton to Kellogg however the latest
model runs (including ensembles) have backed way off. Now most of
the solutions are dry for Tuesday night. We have followed suit
however we have kept some small pops in the forecast for
continuity sake across the northern half of the ID Panhandle.
Looks like the best chances of precipitation will occur over the
Blue Mountains, Camas Prairie, and possibly the LC Valley. fx




&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAFS: High pressure will build over the Inland NW today which
will bring VFR conditions to all forecast sites for the next 24
hours. The only clouds expected to impact any of the sites will
variable amounts of cirrus at heights at or above 20k feet, along
with brief intervals where a bit of cumulus forms but neither will
produce ceilings.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        54  80  50  70  45  65 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Coeur d`Alene  51  80  50  72  45  64 /   0   0   0   0  20  20
Pullman        50  76  48  68  44  63 /   0   0   0   0  20  30
Lewiston       56  83  54  76  51  69 /   0   0   0   0  30  30
Colville       51  85  49  73  45  68 /   0   0   0   0   0  20
Sandpoint      48  81  48  72  44  64 /   0   0   0   0  20  30
Kellogg        49  77  47  69  44  61 /   0   0   0   0  30  40
Moses Lake     52  85  51  75  45  72 /   0   0   0   0   0   0
Wenatchee      56  83  52  72  48  70 /   0   0   0   0   0  10
Omak           53  84  50  74  47  69 /   0   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.

&&

$$