Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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362 FXUS64 KOUN 221718 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Very light, high based showers seen again early this morning across western and northern portions of Oklahoma. Where the rain reaches the ground, mainly trace amounts are expected through day break, mainly north of an Elk City to Enid and Ponca City line. Highs today are anticipated to be at least of few degrees hotter than those seen yesterday with stronger southwesterly low level winds. Offsetting a more significant increase in temperatures, especially for western and northern parts of Oklahoma, will be continued redevelopment of mid/high level cloud cover within plume of elevated moisture ahead of northern/central plains upper level trough. Cannot rule out sprinkles through the morning within this moisture plume (area mentioned above). Attention then turns toward weak frontal boundary that pushes into northern Oklahoma late today/tonight in response to the passing central plains trough. A few showers and thunderstorms appear possible near this front across far northern Oklahoma this evening and tonight, before the front lifts back to the north on Sunday. Very mild temperatures expected again tonight, with most lows mainly in the mid-upper 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 Forecast of broad, flattened ridge to progress westward over the region this weekend still appears on track. Heights then build over the southern Rockies early to mid week, with the ECM showing slightly better consistency and more influence of this building ridge than other models. The GFS is backing off on its aggressive convective potential late Tuesday and Wednesday, but enough signal exists to maintain similar PoPs from previous forecasts across mainly northern through central Oklahoma. Decrease in temperatures behind the Tuesday night/Wednesday frontal boundary appears to be minimal, with southerly flow returning Thursday and Friday ahead of a potentially stronger front next weekend. This will keep temperatures above average for the latter part of the week. Without any significant cooling and dewpoints remaining seasonably high, heat advisories appear likely much of next week for a majority of the forecast area (heat indices 105 to 110). && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1218 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Gusty south/southwesterly winds will continue through ~sunset, along with scattered areas of fair weather cumulus. A few (widely scattered) rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out across far northern Oklahoma this evening, though probability (<15%) and coverage preclude mention at any terminal this update. Otherwise, a weak front remains forecast to approach the Oklahoma/Kansas border region early on Sunday, and may result in variable winds at KPNC. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 77 98 77 97 / 10 0 0 0 Hobart OK 76 100 76 99 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 75 99 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 74 98 74 99 / 10 0 10 0 Ponca City OK 77 98 77 99 / 10 0 10 0 Durant OK 75 98 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...34