Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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010 FXUS64 KOUN 231115 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 608 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 - Rain chances return Tuesday / Tuesday night (30-50%) with next cold front. - Cool temperatures (70s / 80s) will persist through the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Showers and storms are gradually making their way southeastward out of our forecast area this morning. CAMs show some signal of scattered redevelopment through the morning hours, though this appears to be overdone compared to radar trends. Reduced PoPs for this period significantly from the likely`s that NBM was giving. A cold front has passed through the area, leaving us much cooler. Expect highs in the 70s with light northerly winds under clearing skies today. Tonight temperatures will drop into the 40s and 50s. With strong radiational cooling expected (clear skies / light winds), there will likely be a lot of local variation in minimum temperatures. The NAM suggests some fog development in south central Oklahoma toward dawn, but thus far this model appears to be an outlier. Day && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 The next system is forecast to drop down through the central plains Tuesday / Tuesday night. This will result in some low to medium rain chances late Tuesday into early Wednesday, especially across the southeastern half of the forecast area. After that, synoptic uncertainty ramps up. Models cut off the upper low and stall it near Arkansas. Meanwhile, a tropical system will come northward out of the gulf. This will result in a Fujiwhara effect as the two cyclonic systems rotate around each other, possibly bringing their influence back over our forecast area late in the week. The big question is which way will this spinning top wobble. Temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s through most of the week. After Thursday, uncertainty increases (see paragraph above) with interquartile ranges approaching 10 degrees. Day && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 IFR to MVFR cigs are expected at all terminals this morning (excluding KWWR). As expected, an axis of post-frontal stratus has spread across much of Oklahoma and north Texas early this morning. Coverage is expected to erode slowly from northwest-to-southeast through the late morning/early afternoon, as dry air continues to filter in behind the front. Lowered category is expected to be most prolonged at central into north-central Oklahoma terminals today. A few rain showers may also impact terminals through the mid-morning (~15-16 UTC), though minimal/nil impact to category is expected as a result. Safe travels! Ungar && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 56 81 58 / 30 0 10 40 Hobart OK 77 56 86 57 / 10 0 20 30 Wichita Falls TX 78 59 88 62 / 20 0 10 50 Gage OK 75 52 83 52 / 0 0 20 10 Ponca City OK 73 53 78 52 / 20 0 20 20 Durant OK 79 59 87 61 / 40 0 10 40 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...34