Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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781 FXUS64 KOUN 250411 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1111 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1012 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Updated the forecast to primarily (a) adjust POPs for the rest of the night keeping the highest storm potential east and south, and (b) add at least patchy fog to the grids for Wednesday morning, especially in the central and east. && .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1012 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - Storm chances continue in the east and south overnight. Isolated strong to severe storms possible late this evening. - Areas of fog are expected again Wednesday morning in central and east central areas. - The weather turns pleasant afterwards for multiple days, with light north winds and largely clear skies tomorrow and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The primary near-to-short-term forecast concern will be the potential for one or a couple of strong to severe storms this evening. Surface observations show a low pressure zone in northwest Oklahoma a little after noon, and short-term guidance depicts that low gradually migrating southeastward throughout the rest of the day. Just to the east of that low, surface convergence mixed with mild warm/moist advection should be sufficient to trigger convection initiation just northwest of the OKC metro. Low-level thermodynamics will be on the marginal side for surface-based convection, especially with sunset occurring much earlier this time of year. However, steep mid-level lapse rates will still contribute to at least 1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE in central Oklahoma. 30-40 knot northwesterlies aloft will lead to about 50 knots of deep-layer shear, more than sufficient for semi-elevated supercell structures. These storms will have a risk for severe hail and perhaps a damaging wind risk as they begin to collapse in the evening. Further storm development is expected overnight in southern Oklahoma and potentially western north Texas as a cold front begins to impinge on a reservoir of elevated instability. These storms should be undercut by the boundary. However, the potential for strong wind gusts, quarter-sized hail, and cloud-to-ground lightning will be possible. Lows behind the front tonight will drop into the 50s in most locations, with 60s hanging out near the Red River. Cold/dry advection is expected through the day on Wednesday. Winds will be on the lighter side - about 10 mph from the north. Skies will also be clear. Highs will sit in the low 80s. That was about 4 sentences worth of info that can be wrapped up in one phrase - beautiful weather tomorrow! Meister && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 If you like the beautiful weather tomorrow, then good news: we`re getting two for the price of one! Thursday will also see light north- northeasterly winds, clear skies, and highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. The only real change on Friday will be an increase in the pressure gradient as Helene lifts northward into the southeast U.S. High cloud cover should also increase as the cirrus outflow is channeled westward, and there will be at least a low chance for showers east of I-35 Friday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, highs will again be the upper-70s to mid-80s. Once the tropical cyclone ejects northward through the East Coast, the pressure gradient will weaken and we will return to light northerly flow at the surface for the weekend. Although the subtropical ridge is likely to remain locked in place across the Desert Southwest through the week and into the weekend, a trough will eject into the northern Plains early next week. There are some indications that this might be preceded by a broad lee trough across the entire High Plains. This pattern could potentially support impactful fire or severe weather, but right now the antecedent pattern does not look favorable for either. As that trough translates across the northern Plains, another strong cold front is possible by Tuesday or so. Meister && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1111 PM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Thunderstorms continue late this evening across eastern Oklahoma in areas just east of the Oklahoma City metro. By 06Z, any showers/storms will generally be southeast of KOKC/KOUN and KSPS, so KDUA should be the only TAF site with any thunderstorm potential early Wednesday morning. Some areas of fog will likely develop again Wednesday morning across central Oklahoma potentially affecting KOKC, KOUN, and KSWO. Some MVFR ceilings will also be possible at KDUA in the morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 82 57 79 56 / 30 60 0 0 Hobart OK 88 57 84 54 / 40 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 90 62 84 56 / 10 20 0 0 Gage OK 83 52 83 52 / 10 10 0 0 Ponca City OK 77 54 81 52 / 20 20 0 0 Durant OK 88 62 83 56 / 0 70 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...26