019
FXUS64 KOUN 140420
AFDOUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1120 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Thunderstorms are developing this afternoon along a cold front in
Kansas and a weak surface trough in northeast New Mexico/western
Kansas. Ahead of the front in Oklahoma and western north Texas, a
capping inversion will prevent develop through the
afternoon/evening. Storms that form to our west and north may
move into northern (northwest) Oklahoma mainly after 6-7 pm. Weak
mid-level flow and high-based clouds will support strong to
damaging wind gusts with some of the storms this evening. Storms
that reach north central Oklahoma will be later in the evening and
should have a reduced risk of strong winds.

Another hot day is in store for Friday, as the upper ridge builds
over Oklahoma and western north Texas. Surface winds are expected
to be lighter Friday afternoon, but dewpoint temperatures and
humidity are expected to be slightly lower. Afternoon heat index
values will approach 105 across northern Oklahoma, but should
remain just below advisory levels.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

A shortwave trough will lift northeast across the southern/central
Rockies Friday into Friday night. Increasing lift associated with
this feature, and a stalled weak front across southern and western
Kansas, should result in thunderstorm development. Thunderstorms
that form should generally move northeast, so thunderstorm
chances will remain rather low for Friday night into early
Saturday. The timing of the shortwave trough lifting across the
central Plains on Saturday may not be ideal for late afternoon or
early evening storms. For now will keep mainly slight/chance PoPs
in the forecast for northern Oklahoma.

By late in the weekend into early next week, the synoptic pattern
will place the southern Plains between a ridge over the eastern third
of the U.S. and a developing trough to our west.  This should favor
a deep southerly flow through roughly 700 mb. This is expected to
bring slightly cooler daytime temperatures with low chances of
showers and storms. The thunderstorms should generally be confined
to parts of western and southeast Oklahoma.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1119 PM CDT Thu Jun 13 2024

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the TAF period.
Convection along northern Oklahoma is expected to dissipate over
the next few hours, potentially affecting KPNC early in the
period. An outflow boundary will keep winds out of the north for
the next few hours, but will rebound back to the south during the
overnight hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  93  71  95  71 /   0  10   0   0
Hobart OK         96  71  97  71 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX  94  71  95  70 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          102  68  99  69 /   0  20   0  20
Ponca City OK     96  71  95  71 /   0  50   0  10
Durant OK         92  68  94  70 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...13