Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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401 FXUS64 KOUN 112332 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 A nearly stationary MCV over Knox and Baylor counties will continue to support the development of showers and thunderstorms, mainly north and east of the MCV. Although instability is rather weak, slow storm movement and high PW values will result in a risk of some flooding through the early evening. The area of heavy rain currently over western north Texas is expected to gradually build/shift eastward through the early evening and may impact parts of south central Oklahoma. Otherwise, cloud debris from the convection over northern Texas, will add some shade from the early June sun angle. As the mid-level low/MCV moves slowly southeast tonight into early Wednesday, modest height rises are expected over the southern Plains. This will bring more sunshine for Wednesday along with warmer afternoon temperatures. We will allow the Flood Watch for parts of western north Texas to expire at 7 pm. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 The center of an upper level ridge to our west, will build eastward through Friday. This will bring mainly dry weather along with hotter temperatures. The exception may be far northwest Oklahoma Thursday evening near a cold front. A shortwave trough is forecast to move across the southern Rockies and into the central Plains on Saturday. Lift associated with this feature and a rather strong low level jet Saturday evening/night, may result in scattered thunderstorms. The storms should mainly be confined to the northern third of Oklahoma. After Saturday, the forecast is a little more unsure. It`s possible another disturbance may approach the area from the west early next week. This would likely bring better rain chances to northwest Oklahoma. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024 Most of the showers in southwest Oklahoma and north Texas have been dissipating, but there still is one shower at KSPS and others are close enough that they may still a shower and associated MVFR ceiling for an hour or so before the activity finally dissipates. KLAW has been reporting 6SM visibility at best since 12Z and it looks like that is likely a sensor issue as nearby KFSI has been 10SM all day. So will keep the TAF at generally VFR, although with some potential for actual 5SM BR around sunrise Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 89 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 65 90 69 96 / 10 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 66 89 69 94 / 20 0 0 0 Gage OK 63 93 68 101 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 64 92 70 96 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 65 89 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ083>085-087-088. && $$ SHORT TERM...06 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...26