Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
Issued by NWS Oklahoma City, OK
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192 FXUS64 KOUN 241105 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 605 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 602 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 - A Dense Fog Advisory continues until 9 AM this morning across central/south-central/southeast Oklahoma. - Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across western into central Oklahoma this afternoon and evening, with increasing coverage towards the Red River overnight. A few strong to severe storms (wind/hail) are expected during the evening (through 10 PM). - Additional low (20-30%) chances for precipitation on Friday into Saturday across eastern Oklahoma. && .NEAR TERM... && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Areas of fog (locally dense) this morning are expected to give way to shower and thunderstorm potential by late this afternoon into evening. The combination of light/nil surface flow, clear skies and high humidity (especially in areas where appreciable rainfall occurred on Sunday) has fostered fog development early this morning. This includes locally dense fog (visibility <0.25-mile). Accordingly, a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for portions of central into southeast Oklahoma through 9 AM this morning. Despite increasing coverage of high clouds, associated with an approaching upper wave, temperatures this afternoon will run +10- 15 degrees (80s to low-90s) compared to Monday. The aforementioned upper system will also introduce chances for showers and thunderstorms across the southern two-thirds of Oklahoma and north Texas on Tuesday afternoon into late evening. The combination of marginally-sufficient instability/moisture and increasing upper flow will introduce some potential for a few strong to severe thunderstorms during the evening. Main storm hazards look to be strong to severe wind gusts and hail. This potential looks to `maximize` from west-central into southern Oklahoma between 3-10 PM. Additional scattered to numerous areas of precipitation (including intermittent thunder) are expected to shift towards the Red River vicinity into the overnight. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 309 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 The upper system that will provide precipitation/storm chances on Tuesday is forecast to become `cut off` as it meanders towards the Mid-South into the midweek. With our area positioned on the western periphery of this feature, and in the wake of a previous surface front, dry and cool (seasonable) conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. By the late week (i.e., Friday onwards), signal continues to exist in both deterministic and ensemble guidance for interaction to occur between the closed upper system and Potential Tropical Cyclone 9 (soon to become Tropical System Helene). A few scenarios show remnants of the tropical airmass being recycled around the cutoff system (which may retrograde some during this time). Should this occur, chances would exist for scattered precipitation across eastern forecast zones. For now, with high run-to-run variability and uncertainty in timing/strength/track of important synoptic features, will maintain mainly slight chance (20-30%) PoPs for eastern Oklahoma from Friday into Saturday. Otherwise, mainly low impact weather is expected during the period with seasonable temperatures and mostly dry conditions. Ungar && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024 Dense fog across much of central and south central Oklahoma will continue for another few hours before dissipating by mid morning. Light south winds will continue through early afternoon. A cold front will bring scattered storms and northerly winds late this afternoon and evening. Day && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 82 58 78 55 / 30 50 0 0 Hobart OK 88 58 84 54 / 40 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 90 62 84 57 / 10 40 0 0 Gage OK 83 52 83 51 / 10 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 77 53 80 53 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 88 62 83 58 / 0 70 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for OKZ019-020- 023>032-038>048-050>052. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...34 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...14